Yesterday we received the breaking news that Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Zay Flowers inked a contract extension with the franchise. Baltimore signed the 25-year-old to a four-year extension for $140 million, with $108 million guaranteed.
This extension now makes Flowers tied for the fourth-highest-paid receiver in the NFL, along with Justin Jefferson. Upon this extension being announced, the question arose: Is this an overpay for Zay Flowers?
As a rookie, Flowers came in and delivered on his first-round pedigree from the 2023 NFL draft. Having basic counting stats of 77 receptions, 858 yards, and 5 touchdowns on 108 targets.
Accompanied by advanced metric numbers of a yards per route run/YYPR of 1.64, a total EPA of 24.63, and a catch rate of 71.3%. In those metrics, he ranked 45th, 34th, and 22nd; while not groundbreaking numbers, they were still encouraging. Showing he was able to transition to the NFL level and provide solid production for a team that went on to win 13 games and make the AFC Championship Game this year.
In the 2024 season, Flowers took another step forward, producing 74 receptions, 1,059 yards, and 4 touchdowns on 116 targets. Zay’s advanced metrics saw some steps forward but also some steps backwards.
Having a YYPR of 14.3, a total EPA of 38.69, and a catch rate of 63.8%. When it came to YYPR and total EPA, he took major strides, out of 130 qualifying WRs ranking 18th and 19th in those metrics.
When it came to catch rate Flowers wasn’t merely a slight step backwards but a major one. Finishing 61st in this category, only an average mark across the league during this season.
As a whole, the former 22nd overall pick went from being used mainly as a gadgety wide receiver in his rookie season. To a player who showcased he’s good enough to be a wide receiver one for an elite offense.
Baltimore ended this season first in 0.176 EPA per play, 50.14% success rate, and 0.301 EPA per pass. In addition to ranking third in the NFL with a 11.74% explosive pass percentage.
This past season, Flowers played despite quarterback Lamar Jackson missing four games because of injuries. Even when the superstar quarterback was on the field, he looked like a diminished version of himself.
He was playing through knee, ankle, and toe injuries this season. This didn’t stop Flowers from having the best season of his career.
Flowers reached 86 receptions, 1,211 yards, and 5 touchdowns on 118 targets. Finishing sixth and eighth in the entire league in receiving yards and receptions in 2025.
His advanced metrics were even more impressive, delivering a YYPR of 2.52 and a total EPA of 42.37. Ranking fourth and ninth in the entire NFL in those metrics, and his catch rate reached new heights. Flowers ended his third-year campaign with a catch rate of 14th out of 133 qualifying wide receivers.
While a lot of NFL fans call this extension for Flowers an overpay, and in this moment, relative to the production he’s shown, you can argue it is. Baltimore had to get a contract extension done with the former first-round pick now, or it would’ve cost them more later.
There are still other star wide receivers who have yet to sign a contract extension, such as Puka Nacua and George Pickens. Flowers is not better than Nacua or Pickens, but their new deals would’ve made the receiver market only go up even more.
Instead of the Ravens paying the former Boston College product on average $35 million per year on an extension. If they waited and extended him after Nacua and Pickens signed their extensions, they possibly could’ve been paying Flowers over $40 million per year on a contract extension.
Not to mention when other star wide receivers in Malik Nabers and Ladd McConkey sign their contract extensions next offseason, Flowers won’t be a top five-paid wide receiver in the NFL. At that point, he will fall to being a back end on the top ten highest paid wide receivers.
He’s shown growth in each season and is coming off the best year of his career. When a team drafts a wide receiver in the first round, they hope for the trajectory Flowers is on.
For a team that’s been struggling to get the wide receiver position right since Torrey Smith was on the roster in 2013. For the first time since it’s tangible, they’ve drafted and developed a potential star wide receiver. Deciding to extend Flowers is a no-brainer.
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