The Purdue Boilermakers face the Texas Longhorns in a Sweet 16 showdown, and this Purdue vs Texas prediction breaks down who will win in the 2026 NCAA Tournament. Purdue enters as the favorite after a dominant opening weekend, while Texas continues its Cinderella run.
The 2-seeded Boilermakers earned their trip to the West Regional semifinals due to their solid play during the tournament’s opening weekend. Purdue began its championship run with a first-round victory over the Queens Royals, followed by Sunday’s triumph over the Miami Hurricanes in the round of 32.
11th-seeded Texas began its March Madness journey by winning a “First Four” game, which pitted the Longhorns against the North Carolina State Wolfpack. A two-point win last Tuesday brought the reward of facing the BYU Cougars, which the Longhorns dispatched in the first round. In what has become one of the biggest upsets of the 2026 tournament, Texas took down the 3-seed Gonzaga Bulldogs in the second round to earn its trip to San Jose.
Here is all one needs to know about the upcoming Purdue/Texas matchup.
Game: (11) Texas Longhorns vs. (2) Purdue Boilermakers
Event: NCAA Tournament, West Region semifinal
Date/Time: Thursday, March 26, 7:10 PM ET
Odds: Purdue -7.5–ESPN lists the Boilermakers having a 75.5% chance of winning the game
Location: San Jose, CA, SAP Center
TV: CBS
The Longhorns limped into this year’s NCAA tournament, having lost five of their last six games. Texas barely got in and was forced to travel to Dayton for a “play-in” game, which rarely launches a team to the second weekend.
Needless to say, the Longhorns are playing their best basketball at just the right time and are just two wins from an improbable Final Four berth. The Boilermakers must realize that Texas is playing with nothing to lose, and sometimes that is the hardest opponent for which to prepare.
Leading the way for Texas is 6’8″ swingman Dailyn Swain, who leads his team in points, rebounds, and assists. The junior, who began his career with Xavier, averages 17.4 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 3.5 assists per game, and was named to the second-team all-SEC team. According to USA Today’s most recent mock NBA draft, Swain is expected to hear his name called as a first-round pick this summer.
Longhorns’ head coach Sean Miller is certainly pleased with the way his team is currently playing, and he feels Texas has the complete package to keep surprising higher-seeded teams.
“When you connect the defense with the offense that we’ve played, you have a team that’s certainly dangerous,” he said. “That’s what I would call us right now.”
Manning the middle for Texas is 7-footer Matas Vokietaitis. The sophomore center from Lithuania puts in 15.7 points per game to go with his 7.2 rebounds each contest. Containing Vokietaitis’s length could pose problems for Purdue big men Trey Kaufman-Renn and Oscar Cluff, who are both prone to foul trouble.
Two other Longhorns average scoring in double figures. Graduate student Tramon Mark pitches in 13.5 points per game, and senior Jordan Pope contributes 13.1.
An interesting aspect of Thursday’s game will be the reunion between Purdue and former Boilermaker, now Longhorn, Camden Heide. Heide was a solid contributor in West Lafayette for the previous two years before transferring to Texas for the 2025-26 season.
While Purdue head coach Matt Painter understands the gravity of the Sweet 16 game, he is pleased about his former player’s contentment, albeit in a new location.
“It’s the No. 1 thing I talk about in recruiting and when guys are planning to transfer, it’s your happiness,” he said. “And if that’s what you think is best for you, then so be it. I’m glad he’s happy.”
Heide played a major role in Texas’s rise to the Sweet 16. His three-pointer with under 20 seconds to go in their game against Gonzaga sealed the deal and allowed the Longhorns’ season to continue.
“That was great. I was happy for him,” Painter said with a smile. “I like Cam, I was happy for him.”
The Boilermakers are riding a six-game winning streak into their tilt against Texas. In that span, Purdue has buckled down defensively to shut down many high-scoring teams. In the first two rounds of the NCAA tournament, the Boilers held their two opponents well below their season norms. Against Queens, which was averaging over 85 points each game, Purdue kept them in check and allowed just 71 points. In Sunday’s game against Miami, the Boilers held the Hurricanes to 69 points, 13 under their season average.
Expect more of the same on Thursday. Texas enters the contest scoring 82.9 points per game, but if the Boilers must find a way to neutralize the Longhorn’s big men and stay out of foul trouble. If that happens, and Purdue remains efficient on the offensive end, Boiler Nation will be making plans to watch a Saturday game that determines a ticket to the Final Four.
Purdue is favored to defeat Texas in their Sweet 16 matchup, with the Boilermakers’ defense and rebounding expected to be the difference in a projected 83–72 win.
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