College basketball is a results-based business; if that is the case, the Purdue Boilermakers are reaping the profits thus far in their Big 10 schedule.
After dispatching Washington 81-73 on Wednesday night, Purdue improved to a perfect 4-0 in conference play and 14-1 overall. The Boilermakers have won those four Big 10 games by an average margin of 17 points.
Next up for Purdue head coach Matt Painter‘s crew is a home date on Saturday with Penn State. Although the Nittany Lions are 0-4 in conference play, a closer look at those games reveals they are not to be taken lightly.
In conference play, three of Penn State’s four losses came at the hands of ranked teams. They took #9 Michigan State to the brink on December 13th before falling, 76-72. On January 3rd, they lost a neutral-site game in Philadelphia to 20th-ranked Illinois, 73-65. The Nittany Lions’ latest game, a home matchup against #2 Michigan, could only be described as heartbreaking.
On Tuesday, Penn State trailed the Wolverines by as much as 15 points in the second half, but they cut the deficit to one with 1:04 remaining. Their last possession ended without a tying or winning basket, and the upset bid failed with a 74-72 loss.
If moral victories counted in the standings, Penn State would have notched one in the win column against Michigan.
One reason is that they played without freshman Kayden Mingo, who is leading the Nittany Lions in points, rebounds, assists, and minutes played per game. His 14.9 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 4.5 assists were unavailable against the Wolverines due to injury.
Tom Izzo, head coach at Michigan State, was very impressed after his first glimpse of Mingo.
“Yeah, I’m a Mingo fan,” he said after Michigan State’s close win over Penn State last month. “He just keeps his tail here and does his job and he is going to be a fan favorite here because he can do a lot of different things. He seems to have great intelligence and he’s a competitor.”
Another aspect of Tuesday’s loss that was so frustrating for Penn State fans was that their team only shot 34.8% from the field. Had they shot anywhere near their season average of 46.7%, the outcome of the game may have been different.
A positive to come out of the Michigan game was the play of freshman forward Ivan Juric. The 7-footer from Croatia scored a career-high 20 points, well above his season average of 9.1. He is a threat from outside as well; Juric has hit 33% of his shots (9-for-27) from distance.
Junior guard Freddie Dilione V, who is averaging 14.3 points per game this season, poured in 17 against Michigan.
The troubling news coming out of State College this week is that Mingo may not be ready to go against Purdue on Saturday. He injured himself at practice on Monday, thereby eliminating his chances of playing the next night.
Penn State head coach Mike Rhoades gave an update on Mingo’s status on Wednesday, and it was not very promising for the Nittany Lions. Following Tuesday night’s game, Rhoades said it won’t be the only game the true freshman guard will miss and that he will “be out for a little bit.”
With Saturday’s game looming, Mingo’s availability, which is directly related to Penn State’s chances against Purdue, remains to be seen.
Painter and his coaching staff have no control over whether or not Mingo plays on Saturday. What the Boilermakers’ brass can control is playing to their strengths, most notably the emerging inside play of Oscar Cluff and Daniel Jacobsen. Against Washington, those two accounted for 18 points on a combined 9-for-13 shooting.
Purdue has regularly enjoyed a healthy rebounding advantage over their opponents, grabbing 10.6 more boards per game. Along with fellow big man Trey Kaufman-Renn, the Boilermakers, who are listed as a 96.6% chance to win on Saturday, should rely on their points in the paint to improve to 5-0.
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