There is a blockbuster weekend of racing on tap at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky this weekend, highlighted by the $1 million, Grade: 1 Stephen Foster Handicap for four year olds and up.
The nine furlong contest on Saturday drew a strong field of seven including Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan, Dubai World Cup winner Hit Show and Breeders Cup Classic winner Sierra Leone.
Off back to back wins, Royal Spa looks to be in good form right now. The same can be said for Taxed, who just missed in Grade:1 last time. It pains me to put six time Grade: 1 winner Thorpedo Anna third on this list. The truth of the matter is I saw no visible excuses for her last place finish last time out. Moreover, it has become abundantly clear she hasn’t been the same since her epic battle with Fierceness in last year’s Travers Stakes.
Lush Lip’s last four races consist of two wins and two second place finishes. In the second place finishes, she chased the streaking Nitrogen. She meets no such rival here. Vixen finished about an inch behind Lush Lips last time, so she logically merits consideration. Ninth Island, at 15-1, will be taking a class hike, but has good speed and is unbeaten on the grass.
Morning line oddmaker Mike Battaglia is all over this one. Dr. Venkman invades from California and, in his first race in exactly nine months, he had the “pleasure” of chasing the brilliant Nysos last time out. He meets no such rival here and should be “tighter” with a race under his belt. Booth has turned into a sprinting beast while winning his last four straight.
That said, on paper and visually, he looks like he could be beginning to cycle out of form. Roll on Big Joe has speed and has won three of his last four. If you are looking for a longshot Durante, who took advantage of a wicked early pace to win his last with Happy is a Choice finishing in a dead heat for third in that same race, could go well in this race.
The regally bred Mercante has won three of his last four with the defeat coming from the laudably consistent, Grade; 1 winner Spirit of St. Louis. Having won his last two races, Fort Washington is in career best form right now and should be coming late. Brilliant Berti is four for five on this turf course and looms as a major threat. Also consider: Mi Hermano Ramon ran well vs better in California in his last two races, so he should appreciate the drop in class for this assignment. Taking Candy’s last race was too bad to be true. No surprise if he bounces back here.
Mindframe passed six really good horses down the lane in the slop in his last to win by a neck, improving his mark to two for two on this oval. You also get the third start off the layoff angle. The $2.3 million Sierra Leone will, like always, be at the mercy of the early pace as he needs a fast one to do his best running. The problem is I’m not seeing much pace on paper. 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan appears to have rounded back into top form. He returns to Churchill Downs for this race where he is three for four, yet just one for nine everywhere else.
Also consider First Mission who does his best running from off the pace. That said, due his post position, he may be forced to be on or close to the lead early. I like Skippylongstocking, who is an 11 time winner and has earned over $3.6 million in his career, quite a bit. Having said that, he has tried repeatedly over his five year career to win a Grade: 1 and has failed every time. Hit Show upset the field in the $12 million Dubai World Cup in April. This is a tough assignment in his first start since.
Freedoms Not Free is another who invades from California, but has won three of four on the turf…best guess in a difficult race to figure. Regan’s Wit has run some strong Brisnet Figures this year, closes and should be right there at the end. Tiztastic has been facing upper echelon three year olds on the dirt most of the year, but is unbeaten on the turf. Also consider: Minaret Station who was visually impressive beating better.
The problem here is he’ll be making his first start in 8 ½ months here, so fitness is a question mark. Flying Mohawk is back where he belongs (on the turf) and could better this rating. If you are hunting a longshot here, take a look at Giocoso, who ran well vs much better last time and should appreciate the drop in class.
Nevada Beach won his debut then lost at 3/5 odds in his last…should atone in a race where trainer Bob Baffert could run 1, 2, 3. Tiz Secure is one for three but had excuses in both defeats (turf and then chased the talented Goal Oriented). Rank is 0 for 13 yet could get a share of the purse here. Also consider: Varney, a $775,000 son of Vekoma, finally put it all together and won easily in Maryland in his last.
**** Magnitude, the tour de force, 9 3/4 length winner of the Grade 2 Risen Star on Feb. 15 at Fair Grounds, has returned to training.
After the Risen Star, Magnitude was diagnosed with an ankle chip. He returned to the work tab May 15 and has breezed five times at Churchill Downs. He most recently stepped it up for a pair of five-furlong works on June 8 and June 15.
“Hopefully, Magnitude comes back as good as he was,” David Fiske, manager for owner Winchell Thoroughbreds, said of Magnitude. “Magnitude he’s almost there. He’s almost ready (to run)”. I’m not sure where he’ll go, but [we’re] trying to figure out some plan for the rest of the summer.”
**** Trainer Jeremianh Englehart said that Mo Plex exited his Ohio Derby win in good order and will now likely point to the Grade 2, $500,000 Jim Dandy on July 26 at Saratoga. From there, the state-bred $200,000 Albany Stakes on August 21 or possibly Grade 1, $1.25 million Travers on August 23 would be next.
“Being a Saratoga guy, that was my first thought after the race,” said Englehart. “Whether or not that’s what we do is another story. Everything about Saratoga is magical to me and I get to spend 365 days a year there. It’s special.”
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