Yes, Michael Penix Jr. Should Be a Top 15 Pick
By Peter Andrisani (The Mock Draft Guy)
If you know me, and the content I make, you know one thing about my draft evaluations. I always have “my guy” in every draft class. In the 2023 Draft class, it was Brian Branch. For the upcoming 2024 Draft Class, it’s the focus of today’s NFL Draft Prospect Profile, Washington Huskies Star Quarterback, Michael Penix Jr. We have all seen what Penix can do, but just how high will his potential take him in the NFL Draft?
STRENGTHS
Michael Penix Jr. is a 6th year senior who has split his colligate career between Indiana, and Washington, the first 4 being with Indiana. Penix stands 6’3” and is a solid 218 pounds. Despite his injury history, Penix’s athletic ability hasn’t been zapped, with his 4.64 forty time, and his 35.5-inch vertical leap, good enough to be in the 86th and 89th percentiles for the position.
Penix Jr.’s arm talent is phenomenal. He can put more than enough zip and velocity on the ball to drive throws into a variety of windows, with his tight-window throws being some of the best you’ll see in College Football. He can deliver far hash to sideline throws on a rope. He is at his best targeting the middle of the field, while in the pocket, with his arm talent and timing. On designed rollouts, Penix Jr. Displays more of that incredible arm talent.
Ball placement is a huge part of Penix’s game. While his accuracy isn’t anything to write home about when he is forced out of the pocket, inside the pocket, there are very few that are better. His 1.3% turnover-worthy play rate was the second lowest in the FBS, and that’s not because of a lack of pushing the ball down the field. Penix was 4th in the Power 5 in both deep passing yards, with 1,320, and 20+ yard throws. Penix also had an 82.6 adjusted completion percentage on throws 20+ yards downfield, which is ridiculous.
As I mentioned before, despite 3 season-ending injuries at Indiana, Penix Jr. is a fantastic athlete who can extend the play. He won’t ever be a run-first quarterback but he is certainly able to pick up the necessary yards and possesses more than enough athleticism to escape the pocket and keep his eyes downfield.
Penix’s Football IQ is also a huge strength, which is also a call back to his ability to take care of the football because he processes the field so well. Penix goes through his progressions seamlessly and can spray the ball all over the field to different receivers all game, his patience to hit an open route separates him from most of his peers.
WEAKNESSES
Now, Penix Jr. has inconsistent throwing mechanics from top to bottom. His shoulders tend to lean instead of remaining on an even plane. Along with overstriding with his lead foot to initiate his throwing motion. Also, he does not active his feet enough on throws. Let’s put it this way, it works for Penix, and that’s great, but I wouldn’t show any young quarterbacks his game tape to learn from in terms of footwork and mechanics. His throwing motion is something I’ve never seen before, it’s a beautiful disaster as I like to describe it, His throwing motion affects his release speed.
As I mentioned before, Penix is a tremendous passer, but he tends to struggle with his accuracy when he is forced out of the structure of the pocket, moving to his right as a left-handed QB. He has open misses when the defense flushes him to his right, essentially eliminating one side of the field on scrambling to that side.
Injury history and age are 2 massive concerns with Michael Penix Jr. Believe it or not, 2022 was the only full season Penix has played so far in his career, with 3 of his 4 years ending early with major injuries at Indiana. He tore his ACL in 2018 and 2020 and sprained his AC Joint in 2021. So 2023 is a massive evaluation year for the 23-year-old, and he needs to prove he can consistently stay healthy.
SCHEME FIT
Michael Penix Jr.'s playing style, akin to the improvisational flair of mobile left-handed quarterbacks like Steve Young, particularly suits offensive schemes leveraging run-pass options, and play-action. Much like Tua Tagovailoa, Penix exhibits anticipatory throwing skills that exploit emerging opportunities. His resilience in high-pressure scenarios mirrors Deshaun Watson, while his ability to keep plays alive reflects Russell Wilson's playstyle. Given these traits, Penix would ideally fit a West Coast offense that balances short to medium passes with a strong running game.
TEAM FITS
The Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings lack a long-term Quarterback option on their roster behind Kirk Cousins, and With those Weapons, Penix Jr. can slot right in when the time is right.
The Atlanta Falcons. I don’t know how sustainable the Falcons offense is right now with Desmond Ridder throwing 15 passes a game, they need someone in there that they are confident in, that can sling it all over the field.
The Denver Broncos. The Russell Wilson experiment appears to be over in Denver. I’m not sure Sean Payton is going to role with Jarrett Stidham as his new franchise Signal Caller. Penix has that pinpoint accuracy that reminds me of Drew Brees.
PRO COMPARISON
My Pro Comparison for Michael Penix Jr. is a left-handed Russell Wilson. Ah, I got ya! You thought I was going to say Tua, didn’t you? When it comes to stature, Penix and Russ aren’t similar, but the play style as a passer is too good to pass up. Russ in his prime was a master play extender and had the best deep ball in the NFL for a good 5-year stretch. Penix is exactly that, a sneaky athletic quarterback who can extend the play, keep his eyes downfield, and drop the ball right into the bucket 40+ yards down the field.
DRAFT PROJECTION
At the end of the day, Penix Jr. is a highly gifted, yet unorthodox passer who showed the kind of qualities needed to succeed at the pro level. Consistency is the name of the game here, and teams may ultimately be cautious about his medical history and his status as an older prospect. But watch him rip throws to the field and tell me he can’t get it done in the right situation. His value will come down to risk management for teams, but I think the talent is well worth the risk. I believe Michael Penix Jr. will be a top 15 pick in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft.
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