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Week 13 AFC South Fantasy Outlook: Beneath The Grim

The NFL season is hurtling towards the home stretch, and for many fans of the AFC South, the outlook is grim. But have no fear, non-Titans fans. Stadium Rant is here to see if your favorite team can provide any help to your fantasy roster.

AFC South Quarterbacks

Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars have the friendliest fantasy foe league-wide this week. The Detroit Lions give up more points to opposing quarterbacks than any other defense in the NFL. Lawrence likely isn’t available in your league, but he could be an excellent option for a daily lineup. Despite the mismatch, Lawrence is currently listed at least $2,000 less than the highest-priced signal-callers on both FanDuel and DraftKings. 

Trevor Lawrence in his last three games: 🐆 77.2 completion % 🐆 815 passing yards 🐆 6 TDs 🐆 0 INTs 🐆 114.9 passer rating#DUUUVAL — The 33rd Team (@The33rdTeamFB) November 28, 2022

Ryan Tannehill has looked better in the last two weeks while building rapport with rookie Treylon Burks. Unfortunately, he is on the opposite end of the matchup spectrum this week. The Eagles will lock up Tannehill this week. He’s currently the lowest-ranked quarterback on Yahoo heading into this week’s game.

Right above Ryan in those rankings is Davis Mills. It is worth noting Mills has since been announced as the backup to new starter Kyle Allen. Allen threw for 215 yards on 26-of-39 passing while tossing one touchdown and two interceptions. Mills was a decent free agent late last season in deeper leagues. So, Allen may find his way into fantasy relevance. Avoid Allen at all costs until he shows worthy of a stream.

Matt Ryan was strip sacked, his 13th fumble of the season, but the #Colts recover and he scrambles for a first down. — James Boyd (@RomeovilleKid) November 29, 2022

Matt Ryan fumbles far too often for comfort as a fantasy starter. On top of that, he has yet to eclipse 222 yards since returning as the Colts’ starter. So while the offensive line owns a large share of the blame for the Colts’ struggles, Ryan also carries a heavy load.

AFC South Running Backs

Things get better for everyone in this position. First, Derrick Henry is a top-five running back again this year. His matchup with Philadelphia could be trouble, but he’s a must-start each week so let’s move along. Jonathan Taylor was expected by many to be the RB1 for the season. However, an ankle injury, a porous o-line, and turnover to the coaching staff have hindered the former Wisconsin Badger. A stout Dallas defense offers Taylor no respite. It will be another long night for a player that no one can justify benching.

Dameon Pierce is still a def. top 20 RB. His fantasy decline is 100% a product of poor TD luck. Weeks 1-5: 75.4% carry% (3rd), 9.2% target% (32nd), 3 TDs vs 3.7 expected TDs Weeks 7-12: 77.0% carry% (3rd), 11.9% target% (17th), 1 TD vs 3.3 expected — Scott Spratt (@Scott_Spratt) December 1, 2022

Dameon Pierce has been the lone bright spot for the Texans’ offense most of the year. Although the passing game around him may struggle, the Cleveland Browns give up the third-most points to opposing backs in fantasy. Pair that with a potentially sluggish Browns offense trotting out a new quarterback, and Pierce has a chance for a good day.

Travis Etienne says he will be good to go for next week 🔥 — PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) November 28, 2022

Travis Etienne Jr. gave quite a scare to fans that carry him on their fantasy squad. After only two rushes, Etienne missed the rest of the game with a foot injury. The Jaguars have downplayed the injury since, but players with Etienne in their lineups will have to hope that this is true since JaMycal Hasty, who is available in most leagues, would likely split carries with the newly acquired Darrell Henderson Jr.

AFC South Wide Receivers

Treylon Burks has been impressive in multiple weeks for the Titans. The rookie receiver is still available in some ten and 12-team leagues and is worth an add, even if he may not crack your starting lineup with this week’s matchup. 

Treylon Burks' last 2 games: 11 rec, 181 Yds A.J. Brown's last 2 games: 9 Rec, 106 Yds, TD — NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) December 2, 2022

Brandin Cooks is no longer the first option in Houston. The disgruntled receiver has been consistently out-targeted by Nico Collins in recent weeks. However, the 6’4” former 3rd-round draft pick is also available in some leagues and could be worth flex consideration against a Browns defense that is average against the pass. 

Texans WR Brandin Cooks is out Sunday against the Browns due to a calf injury. First-round CB Derek Stingley, Jr. is also out due to a hamstring injury. — Field Yates (@FieldYates) December 2, 2022

Michael Pittman Jr. has been a solid wr2 throughout the season. He’s been the only consistent threat on the perimeter for Indianapolis. Parris Campbell has shown his big play ability and could be worth a flyer in dailies later in the season. Not against the Cowboys, though. Steer clear of Campbell and company this week. Many laughed at the Jaguars signing Christian Kirk to that market-changing contract in the offseason. However, fantasy owners that drafted Kirk seem to think he has been worth every penny. Kirk will feast against the Lions. Otherwise, keep an eye on Zay Jones. He has eclipsed Marvin Jones Jr. on the depth chart and continues to demand a large target share most weeks.

AFC South Tight Ends

Not much to talk about here. Some may be shaking their heads as Jelani Woods had a career day last week for the Colts. If he is somehow available in a dynasty league, snag him. Otherwise, don’t overreact here. Woods got extended playing time with teammate Kylen Granson out last week. Woods also added a quad injury to his lingering shoulder issue. This could lead to him sitting this week now that Granson is back.

Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Should we pick up Jelani Woods? how much FAAB? Week 12 vs Steelers MNF * 41-of-64 snaps (64%) * 27 routes on 39 dropbacks (69%) * 9 targets, 28% share * — CrazyKirt (@crazy_kirt) November 29, 2022

Evan Engram is the best bet in this group. He has been near the league average in points for tight ends, but he is an athletic pass catcher who could take advantage of Detroit, who gives up the fourth most points to the position.

AFC South Fantasy Outlook

That’s all for this week. No need to consider any of these defenses this week. Who do you have on your team from the AFC South? Are there any players that you are watching on the waiver wire? Let us know with a comment or on Twitter.



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