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Three Reasons Why Bills’ Josh Allen Will Win MVP This Year

Did you know that Aaron Rogers (four) has more MVP titles than Tom Brady (three)? That all of Aaron Rodgers MVPs came within the last decade? And in that same period, Brady won four Superbowls? I’m bringing all of this up because the path to winning MVP isn’t as cut and dry as you would think. In 2020 Rodgers won the MVP with 44/50 votes. The next closest player was Bills quarterback Josh Allen, with four votes.

That year Josh Allen had 46 total touchdowns (47 if you include his receiving touchdown from Isaiah Mackenzie) and over 4500 yards passing, but somehow, he only received four votes. So, what does he have to do to get the votes, what type of performance, and what alignment of the stars is required to get an MVP? Here are three reasons I believe Josh Allen will win the MVP this season.

The stats that count

The NFL MVP gets the title by securing the most votes from 50 different independent NFL analysts/commentators. Names like Troy Aikman, Chris Collinsworth, and Peter King decide on their own accord who they believe should be MVP. The stat lines are only as vital as they feel they are. As last year showed, just because you have terrific stats doesn’t mean you immediately get the vote.

Last year Aaron Rodgers won the MVP even though he had fewer touchdowns and passing yards than both Tom Brady and Josh Allen. However, most MVP voters believe in quality over quantity, and Rodgers low turnover rate, high completion percentage, and passer rating put him over the top.

For Allen to have that same consideration, he needs to get his accuracy and turnovers down. The bad news is that the analysts had presumed Allen did have a slight regression last year. He threw 100 more times than the year prior but only garnered 13 more completions and one less TD.

The good news is that Allen is set to take another giant leap forward this year with the added weapons to the offense and Ken Dorsey stepping up into a more significant role as offensive coordinator. In addition, when you consider that Allen’s post-season passer rating last year set an NFL record, you can see why I think next year he will have the statistics beyond just yards and touchdowns that count.

The V Stands For Valuable

Last year the Packers were second on the list of teams most impacted by injuries, with nine players placed on IR and starters missing 64 games. Somehow despite that fact, they still ended up 13-3, two more wins than Buffalo, which spent the year primarily unaffected by injuries. This stat is a big reason why Rodgers got the majority of the votes.

His QB play helped keep the team aloft while crucial players were recuperating; the proof is even more evident when you remember that two of the three losses resulted from when Rodgers wasn’t on the field. It’s clear Rodgers is the most valuable player on the team, and his strength of play plus the Packers finishing record also shows he is one of the most valuable players in the league.

If Josh Allen wants the same kind of respect, he needs to make it clear that the Bills are so successful due to his playing abilities. With all of the talent on the Bills roster, Allen will have to work even harder than Rodgers to achieve the same accolades, but he has shown promise capable of doing so. It was established in last year’s playoff run that he is more than capable of this.

Due to his athleticism, the Bills had a perfect offensive production against the Patriots in the first round, where he threw for five TDs and zero interceptions. In the next game, he stepped up another level, and while he “only” threw four TDs, two came in crunch time within two minutes of the game-ending. In those last couple of drives, Allen proved his value with two incredible 4th down plays and several throws that shot out of him like a laser, giving the Bills the lead with thirteen seconds left.

Unfortunately, the Bills fell out of the playoffs in a heartbreaker; however, after the game was over, it became more apparent that Josh Allen was the most valuable player to any team in the NFL.

These Things Take Time

Aaron Rodgers was drafted in 2005, he wasn’t the official starter for the Packers until 2008, and he didn’t win his first MVP until 2011, six years after he entered the league. It’s a similar story for Tom Brady, who joined the NFL in 2000 and didn’t win MVP until 2007. Except for Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes, who both won in their second year, it typically takes four or more years to get the attention of the national press.

I believe this is due to the cyclical nature of talent in the NFL. Players have good and bad years, and some players have a fantastic start right out the gate and never reach that height again. Giving time to watch a player grow and develop, see them get better then take a setback only to come back stronger, strengthens the season-long campaign of garnering MVP votes.

This coming year will be the fifth season for Josh Allen, his fourth as the official starter on day one. I know we were all excited by his performance in year three, but this year is his coming-out party. We see many people in the NFL were sour about Allen’s success, refusing to believe such a raw talent could be refined to the polished QB he has become.

Nevertheless, after four years, it is now undeniable that Josh Allen is one of the most valuable players in the entire NFL. He’s at the top of the mountain with a select few other athletes, and he is not going anywhere; his time has come.



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