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The Patriots Fantasy Focus: Pre Draft Predictions

The Patriots are not known as a fantasy factory. Their typical offense is meant to win games and this does not always equate to fantasy points. So who can you start from the patriots and should you draft them? As a Patriots fan, this can be tricky because I know you need one but which one will be your fantasy stud.

Mac Jones

Mac Jones finished his rookie season with an average of 14 fantasy points per game. His 238 total points put him at 18th overall in quarterback fantasy rankings. Mac made a solid backup or super-flex option. Going into this season, I don’t expect this to change much. I have him doing a bit better but still finishing in that QB2/SF tier. Mac should finish at 14 amongst quarterbacks.

With that said, he is a massive buy for me in any dynasty scenario. Don’t sell the farm just yet to get him but some kind of offer should be made. This is a typical Patriots scenario. There is no flash or crazy high ceiling like with another second-year QB in Trey Lance.

The Patriots’ offense will prove to keep Mac more consistent in the long run and is a known day one starter. Mac will get his safety blanket with James White returning from a hip injury. Also, Mac has had more time to learn the complicated Belichick playbook. This is a recipe for success.

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Running Backs

The Patriots are known for having a running back by committee approach in their backfield. Typically, this is not good news for fantasy players. This is not a typical Patriots team though. This team will have a run-first mentality with a lot of pass options created in the backfield. So for those that play in point per reception, this should be music to your ears.

Damien Harris finished as the 14th RB in fantasy points in point per reception scoring. He was as higher in standard scoring (no reception bonus) as the eighth best RB. This is good enough to be a consensus RB2 in most leagues with good dynasty upside.

This should not change in 2022. When I draft, Harris will be a fourth or fifth-round target. With the other running backs in the stable, I don’t see Harris pushing into the RB1 category, but don’t sleep on him either.

Both James White and Rhamondre Stevenson fall to the flex spot. They will both be drafted at a reasonable value too. White will be the Patriots top receiving back and Stevenson will find his fantasy points as the third down back. Because of his age, Stevenson will have decent dynasty value.

In my leagues, I am buying him low now and handcuffing with harris. As for White, If you can get him late in the draft then go for it. If not, my guess is you will find him on the waivers at some point to get as a fill-in.

Wide Receivers

There is not much fantasy hope here for the Patriots’ receivers. Last season the Patriots’ top WR in fantasy points was Jakobi Meyers. That’s not really saying much as he only finished as a WR3 at 29th overall. From there it only gets worse as Kendrick Bourne finishes closer to the flex range at the 33rd receiver.

Looking at the upcoming season, I don’t see this getting better. With James White back, there are some points stolen there. This offense will spread the ball around too much to rely on anyone receiver from a fantasy perspective. I would not draft any of them sooner than the eighth round.

Throwing out the fact that I will draft Ty Mongomery. Think of him as our discount Deebo. Montgomery joins the Patriots this year via free agency and is a big question mark. I like this gamble, only as a late pick. Will he be out wide? Is he going to run out of the backfield? I don’t know but it sounds like a lot of fantasy potential to me at a very low price.

The Patriots finally address their deep threat needs by trading for Devante Parker. This truly was a low-cost, big boom move. I can’t say that this will be an immediate fantasy impact. Parker only played 10 games last season, and how goes to one of the most difficult offenses to learn. then throw in the fact that the Patriots are now a run-first team. I believe Parker is a safe fantasy WR2 buy. Look to target him in the fourth or fifth- rounds.

Tight Ends

Two big names that came to New England last year were Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith. Fans and fantasy owners instantly thought that there was finally a top target again. Well, they were half right. I predicted last season that both Smith and Henry would finish in the TE1 category. Henry did, landing at tenth with 164 total fantasy points. Smith fell short, landing at 35th among tight ends. We saw struggles to get both involved.

Both had drop issues. Yet I believe both will be TE1 this year. Someone has to step up this year if the Patriots want to make a playoff run. I think that the tight ends are the ones to do it in the passing game, which means a rise in fantasy potential. We also have to remember that TE 12 would have finished as WR40 last season. So it’s not asking much of them on an offense known for TE production. Henry should be a fourth or fifth-round target and Smith following in the 11-12th round range.

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