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Texans Exploring Dynamic Trade Option That Will Alter 2023 Draft

The NFL draft season brings rumors, leaks, and oddities galore as fans wait for the most significant part of the offseason. The closer we get to the draft, the crazier the rumors get. Recently, a rumor has been circling that the Texans may be exploring what it would take to trade up with the Cardinals to pick at #3 as well as at #2. Is it even possible for the Texans to make this move?

Analyzing Draft Trade Chart Value For The Texans

Picks in the NFL draft can vary in value depending on the value chart used, but each gives a similar measure of how much it would take to execute such a move. According to the Fitzgerald-Spielberger value chart, the third overall pick in the draft is worth 2,443 points, with the number one overall pick being 3,000. The Texans currently hold picks number two, twelve, and thirty-three. Pick twelve is worth 1,741 points and pick 33 is worth 1,228, combing for a value of 2,969. In theory, the Texans could easily trade up to the number three overall pick from a strictly value-based perspective.

With the #Texans topping value in almost every round, they should have the capital to trade up to #3 if they want. They just have to decide how much their Edge #1 is worth versus their Edge #4 — Louie Stewart (@thelstewart503) April 14, 2023

Shocking Trade Patterns For The Texans

While the value of moving up seems easy, part of the value is determined by history and other bidders. Notably, the 2021 draft sets a pattern for this exact scenario where the San Francisco 49ers traded up from twelve to three to select Trey Lance. They traded their 2021 first, 2022 first, 2022 third, and 2023 first to make the swap up for their projected quarterback of the future.

Future first-round picks are hard to measure the value of, as it’s hard to project where they will fall in the draft. Some analysts choose to assign the value of pick 32 to all future first-round picks, to make sure that they aren’t undervalued. This creates a value of 1,244 per pick, giving the Dolphins a total of over 4,000 for a similar trade.

Three Realistic Texan Trade Packages For #3

  1. The Texans trade up to #3 overall and are the only serious bidders in the process. They send pick #12, #33, #73 and next year’s second to get the deal done. The Cardinals only send back #3. This seems like a best-case scenario where the Cardinals can’t find a better offer.

  2. The Texans spend big to bring back a Houston legend alongside their quarterback of the future. The Texans send picks #12, #33, their 2024 first-round pick, and their 2025 second-round pick. The Cardinals respond by sending their #3 overall pick and Deandre Hopkins back to Houston. This gives the Texans a quarterback and edge rusher of the future while solving the wide receiver issue for the next few years.

  3. The Texans are the furthest team looking to trade up, so they have to provide the most heavily-incentivized offer to make the break for the top. They send #12, #33, #73, a 2024 second, and a 2025 first to move up. The Cardinals respond by sending back the #3 overall and a future 4th rounder.

The Texans Time To Shine?

Whatever happens in the NFL draft, it’s obvious the Texans need to add quality playmakers across their team and find a way to start competing in a stacked AFC. Whether they stand pat and draft as the board comes to them or they choose to jump around to select their top-rated players, it stands to reason that GM Nick Caserio needs to start finding success to protect his job. How will he and Demeco Ryans craft the team of the future? We’ll find out on April 28th!



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