Stay Away From These Running Backs In Your 2024 Fantasy Drafts At Their ADP's
Every player at every position comes with some sort of risk in fantasy football whether that be an injury risk, or a poor situation, or something else. Out of all the positions in fantasy, running backs come with the most risk when being drafted. All quarterbacks have some sort of floor and are usually selected later in the drafts because there are so many, and each team only starts one. Wide receivers fluctuate week to week in production, but in PPR scoring there is always a floor because of the point-per-reception format. Tight ends are risky but are mostly taken later in drafts because teams only start 1 and there aren't many good ones for fantasy. Running backs on the other hand go all over the place in drafts and have the best chance at busting compared to ADP once the season is over.
Every team wants to be able to draft Christian McCaffrey or Bijan Robinson, but only one can which means other teams always reach for running backs. In recent years the "running back dead zone" has been used as a term to describe the point in drafts where the middle tier of running backs are selected. The reason for the "dead zone" name, is because most of the running backs taken at this point in drafts end up being busts and don't produce to expectations.
Due to receivers becoming heavily valued in fantasy over recent years, running backs have fallen more and more each season leading to fewer running backs being taken in the "dead zone". Despite that, there were plenty of disappointments at the running back position last season. Just last season Tony Pollard was everyone's favorite round 2 pick as he had finally become the Cowboys full-time starter. Pollard was selected in the 2nd round as the RB 8 last season and finished down at the RB 14. While RB 14 isn't bad at all it's not the hope when selecting a player in the middle of 2nd round. Other notable players to bust/disappoint last season taken in the first 6 rounds were Najee Harris, Rhamondre Stevenson, Dameon Pierce, Miles Sanders, Alexander Mattison, and Cam Akers along with many others.
It is so hard to predict who is going to be a bust in fantasy, but to win a championship it is important to try and avoid the players who end up becoming busts. These running backs listed below have the best chance to underperform based on their current ADP.
De'Von Achane- Miami Dolphins, ADP- RB 7, 24th overall:
Achane has everything a league-winning RB has, as he is as explosive as they come, he plays in an elite offense and can catch the ball out of the backfield. Achane only played in 11 games last season and still finished as the RB 24 in PPR leagues because of his explosiveness as a runner. Achane missed week 1 last year and played sparingly in week 2, but exploded in week 3 against the Broncos with 18 attempts for 203 yards and 2 touchdowns, along with 4 receptions for 30 yards and 2 touchdowns. It was in that game that fantasy managers saw what Achane could be. Achane followed up his monster performance with a combined 252 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns on just 19 attempts the following 2 weeks.
Unfortunately, the meteoric rise of Achane came to a stop as Achane suffered an injury and missed over a month. Right as Achane was set to return and help fantasy teams out he got hurt in his first game back. Achane would proceed to miss one more game and then play in the remainder of his games. Achane was still productive and efficient over the remainder of the season but didn't give the same fantasy production as he did before the injury. The theme surrounding Achane should be clear here.
Achane is an uber-talented back who has game-breaking speed, but is undersized and injury-prone, which makes him a risky pick so early in drafts. Along with the injury concerns, Achane still isn't even the featured back for Miami as Raheem Mostert just signed a 2-year extension this off-season. Mostert was phenomenal last year with 21 total touchdowns and is in line to be the Dolphins starting running back once again. Achane will see more work entering his 2nd year, but the Dolphins won't overuse him because they don't want to risk injury.
Achane's talent and upside alone make him worth the gamble in the late 2nd round, but the injury concerns make it hard to feel confident when making the pick. At the end of the year, Achane could smash his ADP because of his upside, but the concerns are legit which makes him a scary selection and ultimately one to stay away from. If Achane were to fall to the 3rd round, then by all means he should be selected, but the 2nd is a high price to pay for a player with major injury risk despite the talent.
2. Joe Mixon- Houston Texans, ADP- RB 13, 58th overall:
Oddly enough most of the players between Mixon and Achane seem fairly safe. Sure players like Josh Jacobs and Kyren Williams have some questions from the outside but they should be safe enough. Mixon on the other hand may disappoint this season for one main reason.
Since being drafted in 2017 Mixon has been the Bengals lead back and has been an extremely consistent fantasy asset. This past off-season the Bengals moved on from Mixon and sent him to the Texans for a 7th-round pick. The Texans have needed a starting RB, as Dameon Pierce flamed out after 1 season and Devin Singletary walked in free agency. Singletary performed well last year but Houston wanted a true difference-maker. Unfortunately, the Texans struck out on all the big names in free agency but were lucked out when Mixon became available.
Mixon has not been the most efficient back over the last few seasons as he hasn't had an average yards per carry over 4.1 since his 2018 season, but has handled big workloads year after year while staying healthy each year. Mixon hasn't been the most exciting player to own in fantasy but has been one of the most consistent due to his work in the passing game and goalline production. In Houston, the goalline usage should continue but the passing game is where he could take a major hit.
For the last 2 seasons, Mixon has been extremely productive in the passing game for the Bengals. In 2023 Mixon had 52 receptions for 376 yards and 3 touchdowns, and in 2022 he had 60 receptions for 441 yards and 2 TDs. Those numbers are great for running backs in fantasy, and especially for PPR leagues, but those numbers came with Joe Burrow under center. Now with C.J. Stroud at QB, there is a strong chance Mixon sees less volume in the passing game.
Earlier this month Michael Fabiano wrote an article breaking down QB's tendencies in terms of targeting the running backs in the passing game. The article talks about how Stroud had the league's 2nd lowest percentage of targets to RBs right behind Matt Stafford. Stroud targeted his running backs on just 12.8% of his pass attempts last season and targeted his receivers on 64% of his targets. Burrow never targets his backs at a high rate either, but Mixon was on the field so much he worked his way to great volume. Now playing on an offense that features Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and Stefon Diggs, along with Dalton Shultz, the odds Mixon sees a similar volume to previous years seems very low.
Mixon will still see plenty of work in the run game as the team's leadback and will see plenty of goal-line work. The scare with Mixon is the potential loss of receiving work that made him so consistent for fantasy over the past few years. Mixon will have his big games where he scores multiple touchdowns, but the floor may be lower with Mixon possibly losing targets. Mixon in the 5th isn't a horrible value at all, but the ceiling isn't the same as it once was and Mixon's value came from a mix of a solid floor mixed in with big performances in the pass and run game. Mixon losing work through the air will not only lower his ceiling but also lower his floor.
If Mixon retains his production through the air then he will be great once again for fantasy, but the odds of that happening seem low which puts him on this list.
3. Zamir White- Las Vegas Raiders, ADP- RB 21, 83rd overall:
Next up on the list is the Raiders new starting running back Zamir White. White is entering his 3rd season in the league after being drafted in 4th round back in 2022 by Vegas, and his first season as the team's starting back. White's first season was almost non-existent as he only had 17 carries for 70 yards on the season. It was hard for White to get on the field as Josh Jacobs was the league's best back that season as he led the NFL in rushing, so taking him off the field didn't make much sense.
Last season was trending in the same direction for White until Jacobs suffered an injury allowing White to start the final 4 games. In those 4 games, White had 84 attempts for 397 yards and 1 TD on an average of 4.7 yards per carry. White broke out in the 2nd of the 4 games against the Chiefs on Christmas, as he put up 145 yards on 22 attempts in a shocking Raiders victory. It was those 4 games that made the Raiders feel comfortable enough to let Jacobs walk in free agency and give White the reigns.
While the limited sample size of White as a starter is encouraging, the limited sample of White as a starter and a player overall makes him a risky pick. There is a real chance that White is the player he showed he was in those last 4 games and ends up being a top-15 RB for fantasy. There is also a chance he isn't and loses the job mid-way through the season to Alexander Mattison. White was efficient to end the season, but the Raiders played 3 teams with backup QBs in those games in Easton Stick(Chargers), Gardner Minshew(Colts), and Jarrett Stidham(Broncos). The only game against the true starter was the Chiefs game where the Raider's defense dominated which allowed the Raiders to run the clock on offense.
Outside of the concern that White doesn't replicate his late-season performance, White also isn't set up to be heavily involved in the passing game. The Raiders have always used a 3rd down back from Jalen Richard, to Kenyan Drake, and have used Ameer Abdullah the past 2 seasons. For as good of a receiver as Josh Jacobs is the Raiders always wanted a 3rd down back. This season Abdullah is still on the roster, but the Raiders drafted a pass-catching back in Dylan Laube in the 6th round and he could make an immediate impact. Regardless of who the 3rd down back is it is unlikely that White is heavily used in that part of the game.
While White could certainly outperform his expectations there is too much unknown that comes with this pick. With players such as James Conner, Aaron Jones, and Najee Harris being drafted around White he is a riskier selection because he is unknown. There is a clear path for White to outperform his ADP and it would not be surprising at all if he does so on a run-first Raiders team. Combining the unknown of White, the expected lack of work in the passing game, and the other players being drafted around White, White has the makeup of a risky pick.
4. Javonte Williams- Denver Broncos, ADP- RB 34, 115th overall:
If Javonte never suffered an injury in which he tore his ACL and LCL he would probably be a top 10 back for fantasy. Unfortunately, Javonte did suffer the injury, and he went from a future fantasy star to being stuck in a gross timeshare on a bad offense.
Last season was just bad for Javonte coming off the injury, as he had 217 carries for just 774 yards and 3 TDs with only 3.6 Yards per carry. What saved Javonte on some weeks was his involvement in the passing game as he did have 47 catches for 228 yards and 2 TDs. The numbers in the passing game aren't great by any means, but they helped salvage some bad weeks in fantasy. Regardless, Williams was not good for fantasy last season and it may not get any better this year.
Javonte will be healthier entering this upcoming season than he was entering last which is good, but the situation isn't any better. The Broncos RB room is crowded with Samaje Perine, Jaleel McLaughlin, Audric Estime, and Blake Watson, along with Javonte. Perine was signed last off-season to be the team's 3rd down back and seems to be safe to make the team again.
McLaughlin was a UDFA last season and was productive in limited action and is loved by the coaches. Estime was selected in the 5th round of this year's draft and Watson was signed as a UDFA and offers a similar skill set to McLaughlin as a pass catcher. It's likely the Broncos keep 4 backs making the fantasy situation hard to figure out.
Along with the crowded backfield, the Broncos also have a question at QB. The Broncos selected Bo Nix 12th overall in this year's draft, traded for Zach Wilson, and have Jarrett Stidham who started for them after Russell Wilson was benched last season. The issue is that unless Nix performs above projections as a rookie the Broncos have one of the league's worst QB situations. Defenses will load the box and make whoever the QB is, beat them through the air, and for an RB, 8-man boxes are not ideal to run through.
Between the current RB room, the QB situation, and Javonte's performance last year, there are a lot of reasons to be skeptical of Javonte this season. Hopefully, Williams returns to his form before injury and can have a healthy, productive season, but the odds of a productive fantasy season seem slim. The point of the draft that Javonte is going is where fantasy players take a shot on a player with upside or a safe flex-level player and Javonte doesn't seem to be either.
Summary:
At the end of the day, any RB could fit this topic, but these 4 made the most sense. All 4 backs are spaced out throughout the draft with Achane being a top 24 pick, Mixon being a 4th/5th rounder, White going in the 7th/8th, and Javonte around the 10th. All 4 of these backs could meet or even outperform expectations and hopefully, they do, but the reasons discussed make them riskier than the players being selected around them in the draft.
The draft is the start of building a contender which means hitting in picks is extremely important. All 4 of these guys could hit and hopefully they do, but they carry some more concern compared to other players which makes them risky picks at their current ADP.
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