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SEC Week Four: Picks And Bets For A Scintillating Slate

SEC Week Four is here and many teams are playing their first conference opponent this week.


Auburn travels to College Station to take on the Texas A&M Aggies, Kentucky heads to Vanderbilt, and in the game of the week, #15 Ole Miss travels to Tuscaloosa to take on #13 Alabama.


Let's get into the picks and predictions for this loaded week four of the SEC slate.


Kentucky (-14) @ Vanderbilt, 11:00 AM, SECN, O/U 50.5


Previous Week:

Akron @ Kentucky (W), 35-3

Vanderbilt (L) @ UNLV, 40-37


Location:

FirstBank Stadium, Vanderbilt


Analysis:

Anytime I have a chance to fade Vanderbilt without it being an insanely large spread I'm going to.


98% of the best are on Kentucky -14. I'm usually not big on backing the public when the majority is leaning one way but that's exactly what I'm gonna do here. Vanderbilt is also 0-3 ATS this season. Give me Kentucky and the points.


Score Prediction:

Kentucky 38

Vanderbilt 7


Best Bet:

Kentucky -14


Auburn @ Texas A&M (-7.5), 11:00 AM, ESPN, O/U 52.5


Previous Week:

Samford @ Auburn (W), 45-13

UL-Monroe @ Texas A&M (W), 47-3


Location:

Kyle Field, Texas A&M


Analysis:

Auburn travels to College Station to take on the Texas A&M Aggies in Hugh Freeze's first SEC matchup with Auburn. This game opened up as an 8-point line in favor of Texas A&M and has moved down to a 7.5-point point line.


Looking at Auburn's last ten matchups at 11 AM SEC road games, they have a record of 7-3 in those matchups. Hugh Freeze also had a 3-2 record against the Aggies during his Ole Miss tenure and won the last three games vs. the Aggies.


I expect the Auburn offense to be able to move the ball on this Aggie defense that let Miami hang 48 on them.


It's going to come down if Ron Robert's defense can slow down this potent Texas A&M passing attack. The Aggies' offense ranks sixth in PPG and tenth in passing yards per game.


I think Auburn could absolutely win this game in College Station but I'm going to play it safe and take Auburn +7.5. If you're bold though take Auburn ML.


Score Prediction:

Auburn 31

Texas A&M 27


Best Bet:

Auburn +7.5


UTSA @ #23 Tennessee (-20.5), 3:00 PM, SECN, O/U 57.5


Previous Week:

Army (L) @ UTSA, 37-29

Tennessee (L) @ Florida, 29-16


Location:

Neyland Stadium, Tennessee


Analysis:

This is a bounce-back spot for the Vols' after a disappointing loss to the Gators in the Swamp. I think Josh Heupel and Tennessee will pour it on UTSA in this matchup to right the ship.


I like Tennessee here and the points at home. I think the play here is the over of 57.5.


Score Prediction:

Tennessee 48

UTSA 14


Best Bet:

Over 57.5


Arkansas @ #12 LSU (-17.5), 6:00 PM, ESPN, O/U 56


Previous Week:

BYU @ Arkansas (L), 38-31

LSU (W) @ Mississippi State, 41-14


Location:

Tiger Stadium, LSU


Analysis:

This game comes down to whether or not Razorback running back Raheim Sanders comes back this weekend. According to sources Sanders' was a limited participant in Monday's practice.


Even if he comes back you have to wonder if he's on a snap count and if he isn't I still think he'll be rusty considering he hasn't played since week one vs. Western Carolina.


On the other side, LSU looked great against Mississippi State. Quarterback Jayden Daniels threw for 361 yards with 2 touchdowns and added 64 yards and two scores on the ground. Wide receiver Malik Nabers also looked great catching 13 passes for 239 yards and 2 touchdowns.


I like LSU in this game but 17.5 is a lot of points for a conference game. I'll take LSU to win but Arkansas to cover. K.J. Jefferson is good enough to make plays and keep Arkansas close in this game.


Score Prediction:

LSU 34

Arkansas 21


Best Bet:

Arkansas +17.5


Charlotte @ #25 Florida (-28), 6:00 PM, SECN +, O/U 49.5


Previous Week:

Georgia State @ Charlotte (L), 41-25

Tennessee @ Florida (W), 29-16


Location:

Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Florida


Analysis:

I think is a dangerous spot for the Gators. Lots of emotions off of an emotional big win over Tennessee. I could see them having a hangover from last week's victory and start out slow.


Now Charlotte isn't a good team by any means but on any given Saturday something crazy can happen. I expect the Gators to win but this one may be closer than we originally thought.


Score Prediction:

Florida 31

Charlotte 13


Best Bet:

Charlotte +28


Memphis @ Missouri (-5.5), 6:30 PM, ESPNU, O/U 51.5


Previous Week:

Navy @ Memphis (W), 28-24

Kansas State @ Missouri (W), 30-27


Location:

The Dome at America's Center, St. Louis


Analysis:

Missouri is coming off a big win beating rival Kansas State thanks to kicker Harrison Mevis drilling a 61-yard field goal.


This could be a trap spot for the Tigers like Florida but I trust Coach Drinkwitz much more than I do Coach Napier.


Missouri is also a perfect 2-0 ATS and 3-0 on the year. I'm taking Missouri at home and I like them to cover as well.


Score Prediction:

Missouri 28

Memphis 18


Best Bet:

Missouri -5.5


Mississippi State @ South Carolina (-6), 6:30 PM, SECN, O/U 50


Previous Week:

Mississippi State (L) @ LSU, 41-14

South Carolina (L) @ Georgia, 24-14


Location:

Williams-Brice Stadium, South Carolina


Analysis:

South Carolina was up 14-3 at halftime on Georgia before they were held scoreless in the entirety of the second half losing 24-14.


Mississippi State traveled to take on the Bayou Bengals and got destroyed for four quarters. They had no answer for Jayden Daniels and Malik Nabers in this game.


Mississippi State has the 125th-ranked pass defense in the country. South Carolina has the 20th-ranked pass offense in the country.


Spencer Rattler and the Gamecocks offense will have a big day and cover the spread rather easily.


Score Prediction:

South Carolina 31

Mississippi State 21


Best Bet:

South Carolina -6.5


UAB @ #1 Georgia (-42), 6:30 PM, ESPN2, O/U 54


Previous Week:

UL Lafayette @ UAB (L), 41-21

South Carolina @ Georgia (W), 24-14


Location:

Sanford Stadium, Georgia


Analysis:

There is not much UAB can do here to win this game. They're out-talented at every position and will be doing well if they come close to this spread.


I do think that UAB will cover this spread for this reason. Georgia is traveling to take on Auburn next weekend and will most likely rest their starters in the second half and that opens the door for UAB to cover this massive spread.


Score Prediction:

Georgia 45

UAB 13


Best Bet:

UAB +42


Game Of The Week:


#15 Ole Miss @ #13 Alabama (-7), 2:30 PM, CBS, O/U 56


Previous Week:

Georgia Tech @ Ole Miss (W), 48-23

Alabama (W) @ USF, 17-3


Location:

Bryant-Denny Stadium, Alabama


Analysis:

Alabama returns home for the first time since their loss to Texas.


Jalen Milroe has been announced as the starter again after the bad play of the quarterbacks Tyler Buchner and Ty Simpson vs. USF.


The Alabama offense has been an issue for the Crimson Tide with the play of the offensive line and inconsistent quarterback play between Jalen Milroe, Tyler Buchner, and Ty Simpson.


On the betting side, Alabama is 1-2 ATS when playing as at least 7-point favorites this season. Ole Miss has also covered the spread in its two games with a spread this season.


Lane Kiffin spent his time as Alabama's offensive coordinator before he was hired as the head coach of Ole Miss. He understands Saban's program and more importantly, he understands his weaknesses.


Saban looked defeated after the USF game and there have been lots of questions about whether Saban has lost his step and if the Alabama dynasty is dead.


I think this is the year Lane Kiffin joins Kirby Smart, Jimbo Fisher, and Steve Sarkisian as former assistants of his who have beaten him.


Ole Miss officially puts the nail in the coffin of the Alabama dynasty and there's no one better to do just that than Lane Kiffin and the Rebels.


Score Prediction:

Ole Miss 41

Alabama 24


Best Bet:

Ole Miss +7 or Ole Miss ML


This looks to be a great week of SEC football on slate and I can't wait for this weekend. Tons of marquee matchups that will affect the SEC standings and potentially the ending of a dynasty.


Make sure to follow me on X @WilliamLH21 for sports-related content.


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