As week 5 in the NFL approaches, we can finally dial in on props with confidence. After seeing defenses for four weeks, it has become a little easier to handicap prop bets based on matchups and projections. Here's some of my favorites for this week:
Breece Hall "Over" 59.5 rushing yards
This will likely be one of the most popular bets of the week for multiple reasons. Despite that, it seems too good to pass up. Hall has not seen the field nearly as much as Jets fans had hoped, but this is the week that he should return to his normal self. Head coach Robert Salah said earlier this week that his "pitch count" would be removed, allowing him to have a full workload.
Dalvin Cook has been solid, but the upside with Hall is too high for offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett not to unleash him as much as possible. The Denver Broncos also have allowed a league-worst 176 rushing yards per game this season. After last week's performance, they may have to pay more attention to the passing game from Zach Wilson, which should help as well. Sometimes it's better not to overthink it and go with the obvious ones.
Dak Prescott "Over" 22.5 Completions
If the 49ers get out to a lead in this game, as they typically do, the Cowboys will be forced to pass. That isn't an issue with them, though, as Dallas is 13th in pass attempts per game, and tied for 7th in completions per game. They are a pass-heavy team that will have to get the ball out quickly against a dominant 49ers front four.
San Francisco has been strong defensively all year, but they allow the most completions per game in the entire NFL, with 28.8. Their scheme allows for underneath throws, and as aforementioned, forces quarterbacks to get rid of the ball quickly. Expect plenty of screen passes and short throws to nullify that 49ers defensive line. Prescott should have easy completions all day.
Deandre Hopkins "Over" 55.5 Receiving Yards
Hopkins hasn't quite had the start he'd hoped for when he signed with the Titans. That being said, this is a potential breakout week for him. The Colts defensive coordinator Gus Bradley loves playing cover 3 defense, which Hopkins should feast on. Couple that with the inexperience of many of their defensive backs and Hopkins should flourish.
Derrick Henry has a bounce back week last week and showed he still draws a ton of attention from opposing defenses. That should give Hopkins some 1 on 1 options, and a chance to be Tannehill's top target this week. Indianapolis has allowed the fifth most passing yards per game in the NFL this year, giving up 263.8 yards per game.
I'll be parlaying these picks, but as always, taking them straight is the smartest move. I expect two of these props to cash without question. Breece Hall, Dak Prescott, and Deandre Hopkins are poised for solid games.
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