NFL Week 4 Cheat Sheet Best Bets
Week four will be known as the revenge week this season, as we have four high-profile players facing their former teams for the first time. They should be extra motivated to make their former team regret their decision. There are a ton of matchups to take advantage of this week.
Quarterback Cheat Sheet
It's no surprise Joe Burrow has gotten off to a slow start. All three of his matchups this season have come to top-half passing defences, with the Browns allowing the fewest yards to quarterbacks. This week, Burrow plays the Titans, which will be the easiest matchup for him to date. The Titans allow the third most passing yards, allowing 299.67 per game.
Burrow's passing prop currently sits at 266.5 passing yards, which he's yet to surpass this season. Burrow has a good history against the Titans, finishing with 270 passing yards against them last season. This week is shaping up to be the perfect get-right game for Joe Burrow and the Bengals in this matchup.
Running Back Cheat Sheet
Kenneth Walker has been impressive early this season. The Seahawks made a surprising move in the draft by selecting Zach Charbonnet in the second round. This decision drew some concern to what we thought was one of the most secure backfield jobs in the NFL. Walker has continued his dominance, with 69% of the team's rush attempts compared to Charbonnet's 24%.
Week four brings Walker his easiest matchup of the year against the fourth-easiest ranked New York Giants rush defence. I like taking Walker this week in any way you can. His rushing yards line currently sits at 63.5, where he's cleared in five of his last seven games, averaging 88.7 per game. Walker's rush attempts line sits at 14.5, where he's cleared in 6 of his last seven games, averaging 20 attempts per game. The Giants allow the fourth most (117.67) rush yards per game and the second most (28.33) rush attempts per game. One to keep in mind for Monday night's game.
Wide Receiver Cheat Sheet
Let's target one of the revenge game players for this week, Adam Thielen. Thielen takes on his former team, the Minnesota Vikings who allow the third most receiving yards (236.67) per game to WR's. Thielen has quickly emerged as the Panthers' new wide receiver one, leading the team in every statistical receiving category this season.
Thielen's receiving yards line is currently at 49.5, which he's cleared in two of three games this season, averaging 70.3 yards per game. Last week, Thielen collected 145 of his 210 yards with Andy Dalton as his quarterback. This week, rookie Bryce Young returns. While we would have preferred Dalton to start, he's gone over this line once already with Young. As long as the rookie can use his slot safety net and feed Thielen's revenge factor, Thielen should have a big game.
Tight End Cheat Sheet
There were many question marks coming into the season with how the Chiefs and Bieniemy would do after they split. One thing we know for sure is that Bieniemy brought the heavy tight-end usage over to the Commanders. The Commanders rank third in the league in target share (31.5%) to the tight end position. Luckily for the Commanders, they get their starter back this week.
Logan Thomas returns this week after a concussion from a nasty hit on a touchdown catch back in week two. Thomas' receiving yards line is currently at 20.5, which he's cleared in both games this season, averaging 32.5 per game. The Eagles allow the third most receiving yards to TE's, averaging 62.3 per game this season.
The Eagles allow seven targets to TE's per game. When Thomas sees five targets per game, he has gone over this receiving yard line in six of his last seven games. If Thomas can continue to see this usage in this matchup, we should be in for a profitable Sunday.
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