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Is There An Upset Brewing For The Defending Super Bowl Champs?

It's so good to have NFL games back to discuss. I've been ready for football to be back since well... since the Super Bowl was over. Let's get into the breakdown of two teams trying to set the tone for the season.


Game Information:


Time: 7:20 PM CT

Spread: Chiefs -4.5

O/U: 53

Channel: NBC

Location: Arrowhead Stadium

Weather: 87*


Game Summary:


Opening this game the Chiefs were a touchdown favorite until the news of Travis Kelce's injury. Kelce suffered a bone bruise on his knee from Tuesday's practice. He has been officially listed as questionable for this game. Since his injury news was made public the line moved from -7 to -4.5 in the span of hours. That's a lot of money backing the Lions.


On the other side of the ball star defensive tackle Chris Jones is in the middle of a contract dispute and his status for Thursday night's matchup is up in the air. If I had to predict the day before the game if Jones would play or not I'm going to say we don't see the 4x Pro Bowler suit up for the Chiefs.


Now let's talk about the Lions. The Lions are coming off a season where they won nine games for the first time since the 2017 season. For the Lions, their biggest strength comes in the run game where they ranked 11th in team rushing yards per game. The Lions could be an even better run offense where they have a top-five offensive line and added David Montgomery and rookie Jahmyr Gibbs in the offseason.


This should make it easy for Lions quarterback Jared Goff to make reads and have the Chiefs defenses stack the box opening up throwing lanes.


Now to the defense of the Lions. There's not much here to write home about outside of Star Edge Rusher Aidan Hutchinson. They spent two early draft picks' aimed at helping the defense with first-round off-ball linebacker Jack Campbell and second-round safety Brian Branch. This defensive unit was 28th in scoring defense and 30th in pass defense from the 2022 season. That could spell disaster when you are lining up against the league's best in Patrick Mahomes.


Game Prediction:


This will be a high-scoring game between two teams that ranked top five in scoring last season. On the other side, both teams are average to mediocre defenses especially if the Chiefs are missing star Chris Jones. I fully expect the over of the 53 to hit.


Patrick Mahomes has a record of 5-0 in week 1 of his career and his stats are ridiculous in week one matchups.


Here are his numbers in his last five matchups from week one:

2022: 360 yards, 5 TDs, 0 INTs

2021: 337 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs

2020: 211 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs

2019: 378 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs

2018: 256 yards, 4 TDs, 0 INTs


I can see people typing now. But he may not have Travis Kelce! Don't worry I already got you covered.


In the lone game where he didn't have his star tight end, he went for 23/30, 258 yards, 3 touchdowns, and zero picks against the Steelers. The Chiefs breezed by the Steelers to an easy win of 36-10. Anything else you got?


However even after all that I do think that this game will be close but I like the Chiefs in this matchup. Even with all the question marks the Chiefs still have the best football player on the planet and the best coach too.



I think the Lions will have a great year under Head Coach Dan Campbell but the Chiefs offense will simply be too much. The Chiefs were middle-of-the-road against the spread (ATS) with a record of 9-11. Meanwhile, the Lions were an excellent team ATS boasting a 12-5 record. Give me the Chiefs to win but the Lions cover the -4.5 point spread.


So to recap I like the Chiefs to win, the Lions to cover, and the over-to-hit.


The final score will be the Chiefs 41, Lions 38.

 

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