Earlier this summer, I released an article in which I tried to anticipate the total value of Shohei Ohtani's next contract. Ohtani, one of the most talented players to play baseball, will earn a lot of money regardless of where he goes. But now, it could change drastically.
Why Is It Changing?
What made Ohtani so demanding was his incredible batting abilities and his dynamic pitching use that allowed him to be the Angels' ace pitcher the past two years. However, it has now come out that Ohtani has suffered an injury in his pitching arm. This injury will require Tommy John surgery, ending his pitching season. While he can still hit, it is devastating to see half of his incredible game eliminated.
However, this isn't the first time Ohtani will be undergoing Tommy John, as he missed pitching time in 2019 while recovering from the surgery. Similarly to now, he continued to hit. But with another significant injury coming in Ohtani's pitching arm, the question has to be beckoned on whether or not he can be a sustainable pitcher and player for time to come.
What Was Shohei Ohtani's Value Before?
In my previously mentioned article, I estimated Ohtani's value to be around 70-72 million dollars annually. I concluded by calculating how much the pitching portion of Ohtani is worth and how much the batting portion of him is worth, given you're essentially getting two payers in one.
Specifically, I projected Ohtani's pitching portion to be worth around 36-37 million dollars annually. This throws a massive wrench into that, given the now dirtied projection and possibility for Ohtani to continue pitching at the level he has and just pitching at all. So, if this takes a hit, how much are we projecting him to be worth?
How Much Will Ohtani Be Worth Now?
MLB teams are horrified by paying over 20 million dollars annually more than expected for a player and being put into salary torture. So, while Ohtani might've been worth that 65 million plus range prior, that will drop. This injury is serious, and while sometimes beneficial once, it's seen as hazardous twice.
This will significantly cost his pitching arm money, going as far as to say this could devalue it to the 15 million range. I say this because MLB agents will try and take advantage of it. They see an opportunity still to get the generational guy for far cheaper. His arm may not be worth 20 million dollars less, but GM's will make it seem that way.
I still expect to see a 55-62 Million dollar contract a year for Ohtani. Where? I have no idea but stay tuned for an article outlining five potential destinations.
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