Dissecting Alabama's 2023 Schedule: How Many Wins Are Expected?

The Alabama Crimson Tide will enter the 2023 season looking different than a year ago. Head Coach Nick Saban is going into his 17th season in Tuscaloosa but will have a new offensive coordinator and defensive coordinator to work with. He'll also have to replace the graduating seniors, transfers, and ten 2023 NFL draft picks that have since departed.

Also, Alabama is looking to improve their 10-2 record from last season. While double-digit win totals and a Sugar Bowl win will make most fanbases happy, the expectations were higher than that in 2022.

The two losses were to SEC rivals and cost the Tide a potential spot in the College Football Playoff. Meanwhile, SEC rival Georgia cruised to a second-straight National Championship. Alabama has quietly been reloading and will look to make plenty of noise this season.

Alabama Opens The Season At Bryant Denny Stadium

Alabama will open the season at Bryant Denny Stadium for the second year for a non-conference game. It will be the perfect opportunity to get whoever the starting quarterback is some gameday reps and have a look at overall depth up and down the roster,

Sept. 2 vs. Middle Tennessee State (6:30 p.m., SECN)

WIN

Alabama has played Middle Tennessee just twice, and both were wins. It should be an easy win again this year.

Sept. 9 vs. Texas (6 p.m., ESPN)

WIN

Texas and Oklahoma will be the newest members of the Southeastern Conference beginning in 2024. However, the home-and-home series between the Longhorns and Crimson Tide will continue this year, but in Tuscaloosa.

Texas gave Alabama all they could handle last year in Austin, but playing at home is a more favorable situation this year.

Sept. 16 at South Florida (2:30 p.m., ABC)

WIN

Alabama only played the USF Bulls once, which was a 40-17 victory back in 2003. It'll be another non-conference game to get things right before SEC play begins.

Sept. 23 vs. Ole Miss

WIN

The Tide have won the past seven matchups and own a 54-10-2 record against the Rebels. Though last year's game was close in Oxford, this should be manageable for Alabama.

Sept. 30 at Mississippi State

WIN

Alabama will go into the matchup in Starkville as winners of the past 15 and lead the series 85-18-3.

Oct. 7 at Texas A&M

Lose

Texas A&M has given Alabama plenty of trouble the past couple of years as massive underdogs. The Aggies were within striking distance of a comeback win last year and defeated the Tide on a game-winning field goal in 2021. If Alabama is going to lose a game, this is likely the one.

Oct. 14 vs. Arkansas

Win

Arkansas fielded a competitive team last year and played Alabama well, but they are not quite the class of the SEC.

Oct. 21 vs. Tennessee

WIn

In what became one of the best games in college football last year, Tennessee knocked off Alabama with a game-winning field goal in a thriller. The Crimson Tide will get revenge this year by playing the "Third Saturday In October" game at home.

Oct. 28 Idle

Nov. 4 vs. LSU

WIN

Alabama's loss to LSU essentially ended their hopes of a playoff bid last year. The good thing is that this year's matchup will be at home. The Tigers are Alabama's biggest competition for the SEC West title, so this is a must-win.

Nov. 11 at Kentucky

WIN

Kentucky has recently become the second-best team in the SEC East but well behind Georgia. It should not be too difficult of a challenge for Bama despite having to go on the road.

Nov. 18 vs. Chattanooga (11 a.m., SECN+)

WIN

A non-conference game at home against Chattanooga gives Tide players a chance to rest up for the Iron Bowl.

Nov. 25 at Auburn

WIN

The Alabama-Auburn Iron Bowl is among the best rivalries in all of sports. Alabama leads the series 49-37-1, including wins in the past three. History shows that anything can happen in this rivalry, no matter the talent gap, but Alabama finishes the year on a high note.

Final Tally

This win-loss prediction gives Alabama an 11-1 record, which should be enough to win the SEC West and play Georgia for the conference championship game. Could they win all 12?

Yes, but there needs to be room for error in a long season. Like last year, two losses could end the season without a playoff spot until the field is expanded in 2024.

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