Can Mike Evans Continue Historic Fantasy Career In 2024
Mike Evans is coming off his 10th consecutive season with 1,000 receiving yards, but can he make an 11th straight season at age 31? His efficiency may be hard to repeat at this point in his career. Last year, he had his highest Yards Per Reception since 2019 and 13 touchdowns on the season. The Buccaneers lost QB whisperer Dave Canales as their offensive coordinator and replaced him with first-time play-caller Liam Coen.
Coen was listed as the Rams' offensive coordinator in 2022, but Sean McVay dialed up the plays on offense. We have yet to see what type of system Coen will run in Tampa Bay, but if it's anything close to what the Rams are running, look for both Evans and Godwin to be targeted often. The Rams have finished each of the last three seasons as a top-six team regarding targets to the Wide Receiver position.
Given the personnel on this team, there is little reason to believe that would change in Coen's system. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin lead the Wide Receiver core with rookie Jalen McMillan, sophomore Trey Palmer, and veteran Sterling Shepart rounding out the rest of the Wide Receiver room.
Tight End Cade Otton and Running Backs Rachaad White and Bucky Irving will also compete for targets on this offense. However, none of these players threaten what Mike Evans provides for this team. Buccaneers Wide Receiver coach Bryan McClendon has already commented that they are moving Chris Godwin back to the slot "most of the time."
This bodes well for Mike Evans, as he will be the only proven outside Wide Receiver on this team. Evans already received the third-most targets of 20+ yards (34) last season and could see a higher percentage of his team's downfield targets with Godwin moving to the slot. Evans caught 14 of those 34 targets. On those receptions, he had 484 yards (third) and 7 touchdowns (second).
These downfield targets create a lot of big plays for Evans and should continue to do so as long as Evans is able to utilize his big body and win those contested targets downfield. Mike Evans's ADP last year was 79th overall (7.09) and WR33 off the board. It has jumped a considerable amount in comparison to last year, as it currently sits at 29th (3.05) overall and WR18 off the board.
The last time he finished worse than WR18 was in 2017 when he missed one game. He will be a riskier pick in the third round this year, but Mr. Consistent should see enough downfield targets and red zone usage to again top 1,000 receiving yards and finish around his ADP, if not better.
Our consensus projections for Evans in the 2024 season would be: 81 receptions, 1198 yards, 10 touchdowns through the air and 0 carries for 0 yards and 0 rushing touchdowns.
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