This article is a gambling/betting guide and preview to the Week One NFL match-up between the Miami Dolphins and The New England Patriots.
The football season and all the fantasy sports and gambling fun on the side are basically the only reason anyone from New England makes it out of winter alive. Half the folks that shovel a path or plow the streets are simply clearing their way to the closest combination of hot coffee, newsprint, and conversational watercooler within their proximity so that they can brush up on the latest Patriots debates with their coworkers during another long cold day in the life of New England Patriots fan.
The Patriots are almost back, just like the cold weather, and besides the thrill and excitement of seeing what Coach Belichick has in store for us during another desperately needed year of NFL football. Suppose we perform decently while gambling; we get to look forward to some extra money in our pockets, which, much like the season’s arrival, is desperately needed. I would never have extra money if not for NFL gambling. I’m garbage at NBA picks, and I’ve been betting Rickie Fowler to win it every week for years in the PGA unsuccessfully. But, when it comes to NFL picks, I’m your guy.
Last season, though I was not betting on every game, I made picks for every game ATS and amassed an impressive record of 151-118-3. I also bet on the Bengals to win their Division (+4000) and the Championship (+6500) in March of last year, before they had even drafted Jamarr Chase. I don’t always nail it, but I have a vast mixture of knowledge and what is usually a unique insight into the world of gambling throughout the NFL.
Patriots at Dolphins: Moneyline, Spread, Over/Under
Currently, the money line is Miami Dolphins -140 and New England Patriots +120. This means you would win $100 if you bet $140 on Miami and that you would win $120 if you bet $100 on New England. The line has bounced around a little, but this is where we should expect it to be during game time, assuming there are no catastrophes for either team. The spread is -3 Miami, +3 New England. In a game that a field goal could easily decide, I wouldn’t bet against the spread this time around.
The Patriots fan in me would never bet against the Patriots, and this time is no exception. There is absolutely no reason to believe that 39-year-old rookie head coach Mike McDaniel will be any match for possibly the greatest coach in NFL history.
The line certainly reflects the talent on each team to a certain extent, but anyone in New England would tell you they’d rather have Mac Jones over Tua, and the books are still kind of out on what Mac Jones’ ceiling may be. This game should be close, but I feel the Patriots make easy work of the Dolphins during their week one match-up based on coaching disparity. The deciding factor will ultimately be the superior QB play of Mac Jones over that of Tua Tagovailoa.
The Over/Under for the game is 44.5 points which to me seems low. In the last five games between these two teams, the under has hit three times, and the over has hit twice. Look for this game to even it out back to .500. This is a “prove yourself” and “show me what you got” type of game that will likely be played in good weather. There will be scoring. Take the over.
Prediction: Final Score: New England 30 – Miami 24
Patriots @ Dolphins Player Prop Predictions
Though the player props odds aren’t out officially yet, we decided to make some approximations and predictions based on player props that will most likely be available once it’s closer to gameday.
Devante Parker, WR, Patriots
My personal guess is that Devante Parker will have an over/under of around 62 receiving yards and an over/under of five and a half receptions. The Patriots will be looking to establish momentum early in a tricky road opener in a stadium where they’ve struggled recently. Mac Jones and Devante Parker will be looking to showcase their newfound chemistry immediately in an attempt to show everyone that they don’t intend to mess around this year.
I expect a big game from Devante, and I think he should easily surpass 62 receiving yards. As for receptions, a five and a half over/under would be very close, and I probably wouldn’t recommend the over. As for a TD, this is another coin-flip. His match-up this week against Xavien Howard is going to be incredibly difficult. Still, there is a good chance they’ve faced off against each other in practices for years, and Devante may have the upper hand going against a system he’s familiar with, compared to Xavien, who’s going up against the Patriot’s relatively mysterious 2022 system.
Personally, I wouldn’t bet on Devante Parker for the TD this week, but he’ll probably get one. If he doesn’t, he’ll most likely get knocked out at the one-yard line by Xavien Howard on a corner route or a deep post, and that’s why I wouldn’t make that bet. Nobody wants to miss their TD prop by a yard.
Prediction Final Stat Line: Davante Parker: Five Receptions, 72 Yards, No TD
Tyreek Hill, WR, Dolphins
Hill was involved in quite possibly the largest trade in the offseason, and it’s hard to question Tyreek Hill’s ability to come into Miami and immediately become the game-changing difference maker they need him to be. Quite frankly, he earned every cent of his massive contract through his outstanding play and seemingly superhuman speed.
The arguments usually start around the issue of who is throwing the ball to him, as they should. Patrick Mahomes, arguably one of the most incredible QB talents the NFL has ever had, in tandem with Tyreek, combined to form one of the scariest QB/WR dual-threat combos the league has ever known. Without Mahomes, you could argue that Hill won’t be quite as good as he was, considering the talent that is Patrick Mahomes, a type of player who can get the most out of his guys.
Tua isn’t the same caliber QB Patrick Mahomes was during Tyreek’s time with KC. There are other things to question, too, such as playing in a new (albeit similar) system. Hill is the man this year in Miami, that’s for certain, but to what extent is yet to be seen. Presumably, he will be a bright spot for the team in a long and disappointing Dolphins season under a rookie head coach and a lackluster QB. Sorry fins nation, please forgive me.
I predict Tyreek’s over/under for receiving yards during the Patriots’ week one match-up to be around 73 and his over/under for receptions to be six. He’s going to be involved, and he’s going to be close to hitting both of these marks. I’d be tempted to take Tyreek Hill for over 73 yards, but this game isn’t likely going to be particularly explosive, and I’d stay away from his receptions total.
I think it’s likely he gets a TD, and the odds will represent that at probably close to (+150 – +250). Tyreek for a score is a pretty good bet for this game, seeing as Tyreek Hill has scored five TDs in four career games against New England.
Prediction: Final Stat Line, Tyreek Hill: Five Receptions, 82 Yards, One TD
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