A Full Season Of Tank Dell Could Feed Fantasy Champions
Despite Nathaniel "Tank" Dell posting the most receiving yards and touchdowns in the FBS in his final collegiate season, yet 30 of 32 teams passed on the chance to draft him (Browns and 49ers did not have a draft pick before 70th overall). Dell continued to impress during his rookie season on the field. He only played just 8 games at a 60% snap share or higher due to injury but finished as a WR1 in 4 of those games and as a WR2 in an additional 2 games.
In those 8 games, Dell was on a 17-game pace to catch 87 of his 142 targets for 1,358 yards and 15 Touchdowns. That would have given Dell 269.3 points and a fantasy finish of WR4 in half-ppr formats. Even if Dell had an average touchdown rate based on his targets, he would have 7 touchdowns and finished as WR9 on the season, just ahead of teammate Nico Collins. Tank has a high football IQ and developed a quick connection with fellow '23 rookie CJ Stroud.
Stroud was incredibly efficient in targeting players downfield last year. On targets traveling 20+ yards, he had the second-highest completion percentage (56.1%) and the second-most yards (1,111 yards) with just the 14th-most pass attempts. He also threw 8 touchdowns and 0 Interceptions in this range. Despite Dell's frame, which would typically force him to operate primarily out of the slot, Dell ran just 28.7% of his routes out of the slot last year.
He had a high success rate vs. man coverage and press coverage in comparison to zone coverage and had the 5th highest aDOT of any Wide Receiver with at least 70 targets last year, which typically is the case for bigger, outside Wide Receivers. Dell operated as a deep threat in this offense last year, but his role could change with veteran Stefon Diggs joining the team.
Diggs ran a higher percentage of routes from the slot in three of the last four seasons. He only had one season with more routes from the slot than the outside, but as he continues to age, the slot role may better suit Diggs than Dell. Whoever the Texans decide will play more from the slot will lose snaps, though, as the Texans ran 11 personnel at the 10th-lowest rate in the NFL last season.
This may change given the injuries the Texans faced last year and the improved Wide Receiver room this year, but Dell will still likely see a dip from the 8.4 targets he saw in his 8 healthy games played last season. Given that the pecking order in this Wide Receiver room is unknown, Dell's ADP of 5.06 and WR29 off the board gives him moderate risk with a high reward.
Our consensus projections for Dell in the 2024 season would be: 81 receptions, 1154 yards, 9 touchdowns through the air and 12 carries for 56 yards and 1 rushing touchdown.
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