9/6/2022 Daily MLB Best Bets
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Today’s Games with the Best Way to Challenge the Books!
New York Mets vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Atlanta Braves vs. Oakland Athletics
New York Mets vs. Pittsburgh Pirates:
Taijuan Walker vs. Mitch Keller
A new series between two teams on opposite ends of the standings kicks off tonight. The Mets are coming off of a surprising series loss to the lowly Nationals and with a day off should be regrouped to get back to their usual dominance. The Pirates have a solid young core and should be competitive in the future but just aren’t quite there yet.
To try to get back on the right track for the Mets they will send Taijuan Walker to the mound tonight. On the season he has a 3.45 ERA and a 4.23 xERA. He will be on the road in Pittsburgh for this game and when away from NYC he has fared slightly better than his season average with a 3.29 ERA. In his last 3 starts he has gone winless but only allowed 5 ER in 12 innings while facing the likes of the Dodgers, the Yankees, and the Braves. Today he will be taking on the Pirates offense who are one of the worst in all of baseball. Overall offensively Pittsburgh is 28th in baseball with a 71 wRC+. They are even worse against Righties like Walker with the 29th best wOBA of .265.
For the Pirates they will send Mitch Keller to the bump today against the mighty Mets with his 4.43 ERA and 4.26 xERA. The Pirates have lost 6 of his last 8 starts and while at home, which he will be today, he has a worse than average ERA of 4.81 ERA. He will be taking on a Mets offense that he has never faced before, but has the 6th best offense against RHP like Keller with a .327 wOBA.
The Pirates have the 4th worst bullpen in the league, the 3rd worst offense, and the worst overall fielding percentage. Against a Mets team coming out angry after losing to the last place team in their division. Look for the Mets to score early and often in this one and to cover the run line.
NYM RL, -1.5, -130.
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays:
Rich Hill vs. Drew Rasmussen
The Rays, who are fighting for a playoff spot and possibly their division title, took game one of this inter division series last night 4-3 and look to keep the winning going against their rival tonight. The Red Sox while essentially out of the playoff race have picked up the pace as of late in winning 5 in a row before last night and look to bring down their divisional foe in game 2 tonight.
The Red Sox will send soft tossing veteran Rich Hill to the mound tonight who brings with him a 4.52 ERA and a 4.20 xERA. Hill has faced this Rays team twice already this season and was successful with 11 IP and 0 ER allowed. Backing him up though out of the Red Sox bullpen is a unit that is 3rd to last in the league over the past month with a 5.82 ERA. The Sox pitching staff will be taking on a red hot Rays team that has won 6 of their last 7 and are the 7th best offense over the past month overall. They have a 111 wRC+ in the past 30 days.
For the Rays they will send Drew Rasmussen to the bump who carries a 2.70 ERA and a 3.55 xERA. While at home so far this season Ras has a 1.97 ERA when in Tampa. In the month of August over 34.1 IP he had a 1.57 ERA. He has not allowed over 2 ER since July 14th. Backing him up out of the bullpen is the opposite of the Sox pen, the Rays have the 3rd best ERA over the past month with a 2.67 ERA.
This game should be low scoring up front between the two starters but once the bullpens get involved the Rays have the clear advantage. Eat the juice in this one for the Rays to win on the money line as this should be a close enough game to not risk the run line at -1.5 for the Rays. We should cash late, but a cash nonetheless.
TB ML, -155.
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Atlanta Braves vs. Oakland Athletics:
Kyle Wright vs. Cole Irvin
A new interleague series starts tonight in Oakland as the A’s host the red hot Atlanta Braves. The Braves have won 5 in a row and are looking to take the 1st place spot in their division away from the Mets while the A’s dont have much left to play for this season.
To start the series off on the right foot the Braves will send Kyle Wright to the bump. On the year Wright has a 2.85 ERA and a 3.81 xERA. In the past month of August Wright had a 2.53 ERA over 32 IP. He faced this same A’s team earlier this season and in that start he took the win by going 8 innings allowing 2 ER. He will be taking on this A’s offense that has struggled all season and over the past month are 21st in baseball with a wRC+ of 88 (100 is league average). Behind Wright in the Braves bullpen is the 4th best reliving unit in baseball with a 2.72 ERA.
On the other side for the Athletics is Cole Irvin who brings with him a 3.35 ERA and a 4.47 xERA. Over the past month he had a 4.23 ERA in 38.1 IP. Irvin faced off against Wright in that game earlier this year where Wright took home the win, as Irvin only went 5.1 IP allowing the same 2 ER. This time around the Braves offense is at their best as they are 3rd in all of baseball over the past month with a wRC+ of 119 and against lefties like Irvin are 2nd over the past 30 days with a wOBA of .385.
We have seen this matchup already once this season and the Braves took it home. Tonight will be no difference as the Braves have the hotter offense, the better offense and superior bullpen. To cut the juice as the Braves should score early and often, take the Braves to win on the run line -1.5.
ATL RL, -1.5, -130.
BONUS (NON-BEST) BETS!
BAL ML: Bradish for the O’s has been phenomenal lately vs White from the Jays who has been sloppy.
CLE RL -1.5: Bieber plus the best bullpen in baseball should over come the Cleveland offense’s shortcomings.
ARI RL +1.5: Merrill Kelly has been beyond dominant as of late and the ARI offense is top ten in the past month.
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