9/13/2022 Daily MLB Best Bets
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Today’s Games with the Best Way to Challenge the Books!
Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago White Sox
Los Angeles Angels Vs. Cleveland Guardians Daily Best Bet:
Jose Suarez vs. Cody Morris:
The Guardians take on the Angels tonight and try to slow down the red-hot Mike Trout who has homered in 7 straight games. The Angels will be sending their hottest starter right now to try to slow the Guardians’ fight for the playoffs.
That starter for the Angels is Jose Suarez. He has a 3.77 ERA and a 3.68 xERA on the season thus far but in the past month of August he had just a 2.51 ERA in 28.2 innings and in his lone start in September he went seven scoreless innings against the Tigers. He will be taking on a Guardians offense that ranks 24th offensively in the past month with an 88 wRC+ (league average is 100) and are 19th in the league against lefties like Suarez with a .307 wOBA.
On the other side for the Guardians is Cody Morris who brings with him a 3.00 ERA and a 6.02 xERA. This will essentially be a bullpen game for the Guardians. The good news for Cleveland is they have the 4th best ERA as a bullpen in the past month. The bad news is they have the 10th WORST bullpen over the past week with a 4.91 ERA. They will be taking on an Angels offense that has taken off over the past week and have the 14th best wRC+ rating of 117, well above league average.
The best bet in today’s game between these two teams is going to be in the first 5 innings of the game. The Angels bullpen has not been great this year and while the Guardians pen has struggled in the past week the back end of the pen is still good. Take the Angels’ hot offense and superior starter on the money line (a tie is a push) in the first 5 innings.
LAA F5 ML, +100.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins Daily Best Bet:
Baily Falter vs. Sandy Alcantara
An NL East rivalry series kicks off tonight between two teams and pitchers going in opposite directions on the season. The teams you could probably guess, the Phillies are fighting for a wild card spot while the Marlins are at the bottom of the division. The pitchers though may surprise you.
The Marlins are sending possible Cy Young candidate Sandy Alcantara to the bump tonight. On the year he has a 2.43 ERA and a 2.99 xERA. But in September so far he has a 7.36 ERA as he has allowed nine runs in his last two outings. He will be taking on a Phillies team that scored five on him his last time out and is second overall offensively in the past month. They have a 122 wRC+ in the past 30 days and are eighth overall against righties like Alcantara.
On the other side is the side of the pitching matchup doing better as of late. Bailey Falter is starting for the Phillies with his 4.02 ERA and 4.53 xERA. As mentioned, he has been hot as of late though with allowing only three ER over his past two outings against these Marlins and the also hot Dbacks. Falter will be taking on a Marlins offense that ranks dead last in nearly all offensive categories. Over the past month they are 30th against left-handed pitchers, which Falter is, and 30th in total wRC+ with a 71 score.
The Marlins are favored in this game because Alcantara is on the mound. The books seem to be asleep at the wheel here though as Alcantara just took the lass against these same Phillies last time out and hasn’t looked the same over his last few starts. Take the underdog Phillies to win this one.
PHI ML, +105.
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Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago White Sox Daily Best Bet:
Chad Kuhl vs. Michael Kopech
The White Sox start today off looking to stay in the race for their division title as the Rockies try to play spoiler and take this series on the road in Chicago.
To try to spoil the fun the Rockies will send Chad Kuhl to the mound. On the season he has an ERA of 5.38 and an xERA of 5.29. He has been worse on the road this year as well, which is where he will be today, as he has a 6.00 ERA away from Coors. He will be taking on this White Sox offense today who are a top-four offense in baseball over the past month with a 117 wRC+.
On the other side for the White Sox is Michael Kopech and his 3.78 ERA and 3.92 xERA. He has the better advantage and history today as while pitching at home this year, which he will be today, he has a 2.97 ERA. He has faced this Rockies lineup once already this season and in that start, he went 5.1 innings and allowed zero Rockies to score. This Rockies offense he is facing has had a rough month, as they are last in the league against right-handed pitchers, which Kopech is, with a .268 wOBA. They are also second to last offensively overall with a 73 wRC+.
The lines on this game are heavily in favor of the White Sox and you can see why above. So, to cut the price a bit we will focus on the first half of the game to take advantage of the starting pitchers and assume the Sox will win those first five innings on the run line which is just a half a run.
CHW F5 RL, -0.5, -140.
BONUS (NON-BEST) BETS!
STL RL: The Brewers are terrible against Lefties and Montgomery has been unhittable since being traded from the Yankees.
TEX ML: The Rangers are at top 10 hitting team against lefties and the A’s have a terrible bullpen. TEX should be able to hit them well today.
LAD RL: The Dbacks are terrible against lefties and the Dodgers are the best against righties.
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