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Today’s Games with the Best Way to Challenge the Books!
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox
San Francisco Giants vs. Minnesota Twins
Atlanta Braves vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox:
JT Chargois vs. Michael Wacha
The Red Sox kick off a new series vs the division rival Rays today in hopes of playing spoiler to bring the Rays down in the wild card standings as the Sox seem too far out of it to make a last month rush towards the top. The Red Sox send a surprise success story to the mound today while the Rays send their patented bullpen game to combat the Sox offense.
The surprise of the Red Sox season in the starting rotation has been Michael Wacha who has a 2.28 ERA on the season and a 4.26 xERA. He will be on the mound in Boston today which is where he does best. On the year at home at Fenway he has a 1.14 ERA. He will be taking on a Rays offense that has been winning in bunches lately but is still below league average against RHP like Wacha with the 17th best wOBA at .301 and are even worse overall offensively at 19th in the league in the same timeframe.
Starting the Rays bullpen game will be JT Chargois who has pitched just 2.2 innings in relief on the year. In those 3 outings he has a 0.00 ERA giving up zero total runs. Not much of a sample size here but knowing how the Rays have historically handled these bullpen games and fared well in them it is a strong strategy. In the past month the Rays bullpen is 3rd in all of baseball with a 2.49 ERA. They are taking on a Boston offense who is also very pedestrian over the past month. They are 15th overall offensively and 14th against RHP which the majority of the Rays pen is.
This bet today on this game is banking on Wacha staying on the same path he has been all season with his 2.28 ERA against a mediocre offense and that he doesn’t start to regress to his 4.26 xERA. While I believe that will happen before seasons end, its not going to be today. Take the over/under number that is entirely too high for this caliber starter, the strength of the bullpen of the Rays and the average offenses at play today and take the under with plenty of space to give.
TOTAL UNDER 9, +105.
San Francisco Giants vs. Minnesota Twins
Alex Wood vs. Joe Ryan
A new interleague series starts today between these two teams who are both falling in the standings as of late. The Giants couldn’t recreate the magic last season and the Twins while leading their division have lost 6 games in a row. The Twins has a lot to play for right now though and starting off a new series at home on the right foot is vital to them staying on top.
To try to right the ship the Twins will send Joe Ryan to the mound today. On the year the rookie has a 3.86 ERA and a 3.60 xERA. He fares much better at home though as he has a 2.95 ERA in Minnesota. He has been a great story for the Twins this year as a rookie. He has allowed 2 runs or less in 7 of his last 9 starts. He will be taking on a Giants offense that is 23rd offensively vs RHP like Ryan in the past month with a .288 wOBA.
For the Giants today they will send starting pitcher Alex Wood to the bump to take on the Twins. On the year he carries a 4.54 ERA and a 3.71 xERA. Wood has allowed 16 ER over his last 4 outings. The defense behind Wood may be the reason his xERA is so much lower than his ERA. They rank 29th in baseball in defensive runs saved at -35.
The Twins have been slumping as of late which is why the price is so cheap on the much better team. But, they are 5-1 in Ryan’s last starts off of a Twins loss and are 6-1 in their last 7 games against LHP like Wood. Take the cheap price on the overall better team with something still to fight for.
MIN ML, -127.
Atlanta Braves vs. St. Louis Cardinals:
Spencer Strider vs. Jose Quintana
The baseball world is in for a treat today with the beginning of this series between two offenses who are on fire right now. Both teams are fighting to solidify their spot in the playoffs and are hitting their tails off to do so. Both are in the top 5 in nearly all statistical categories over the past month. To try to stifle the Cardinals offense, the Braves will send Spencer Strider to the bump. On the year Strider has a 2.95 ERA and a 2.50 xERA. He will be on the road in St. Louis today where he fares slightly worse than at home in Atlanta. On the road this year he has a 3.48 ERA. The Cardinal offense he will be facing today as mentioned before has been on fire. Over the past 30 days they have the BEST wOBA in all of baseball against RHP like Strider with an average of .377.
For the Cardinals, they will send out newly acquired starter Jose Quintana to take on the Braves. On the season he has a 3.45 ERA and a 4.12 xERA, though he has only made 4 starts vs the Cardinals thus far. In those four starts he has allowed 7 ER. He will be taking on another hot offense in the Brave who are 5th in all of baseball against RHP like Quintana in terms of wOBA over the past month with a .360 rating.
Both starting pitchers today are solid and have been so most of the season. But they have their flaws and can get hit around by tough offenses. Unfortunately for each starter they are facing one of the best offenses in the league right now. The over/under number of 7 set in this game is reserved for top tier starters vs mediocre offenses, that is not what we have here. Bank on the offenses to keep up their success and hit this over here tonight.
TOTAL OVER 7.
BONUS (NON-BEST) BETS!
TORONTO ML: Angels cant hit and their starter was roughed up by the Tigers last time out.
RANGERS ML: Playing the aforementioned Tigers who are the worst hitting team in the league.
CUBS ML: Brewers not playing well lately and Steele for the Cubs has been solid.
YANKEES TEAM TOTAL OVER 4.5: I do believe the Yankees are back, they have Stanton in the lineup and all is right for them again.
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