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Games with the Best Bets to take advantage of the Books!
Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Kansas City Royals
White Sox Vs. Orioles:
Lucas Giolito vs. Spenser Watkins
We cashed on the first game of this series with the underdog Orioles winning at home to kick off the series. The White Sox continue to slide even with their ace on the mound last night as they have now lost 5 in a row. The Orioles have won 3 of their last 4 and are 18-6 in their past 24 at home. Both teams look to lock up this series and continue their climb up the AL Wild Card standings.
Starting on the mound tonight for the Orioles is right-hander Spenser Watkins. On the year he has a 4.04 ERA and a 4.82 xERA. He has faced this White Sox offense once so far this year and in that start, he got the win while throwing 5 innings of 1 run ball and that run was unearned. He has held his opponent to 3 or fewer runs in 10 of his last 11 outings. He doesn’t tend to last long in games though as he averages just under 5 innings pitched per start.
Luckily for Watkins, he has a top 10 bullpen backing him up. On the season the bullpen as a unit is 4th overall with a 3.16 ERA and is 9th best in the past month with a 3.24 ERA. He will be taking on a White Sox team that is 5-9 in their last 14 on the road and maybe without one of their best hitters in Eloy Jimenez tonight. Jimenez left last night’s game after getting hit in the elbow with a 102 mph fastball.
For the White Sox, they will send Lucas Giolito to the bump to try to even this series up. On the year he carries a 5.34 ERA and a 4.20 xERA. While it appears he has had some bad luck so far this year, as his xERA is over a full point lower, his 4.20 is still much higher than the White Sox were expecting out of him this year. In his last two starts, he has given up 11 earned runs in just 10 innings. In total for August, he has thrown 20 innings with a 6.30 ERA.
Backing him up will be a White Sox bullpen that over the past month has the 5th worst pen ERA in all of baseball with a 4.59 ERA. This pitching unit will take on an Orioles offense that has been shocking the baseball world as they are still in the wild-card race. This team offensively has been top 10 over the past month both against right-handed pitchers, which Giolito is and overall with a .320 wOBA in both categories.
The Orioles took down a Cy Young contender in Dylan Cease last night scoring 5 runs and there is no reason they cannot do the same tonight versus a struggling Giolito. We are going to bank on the Orioles offense entirely tonight with our bet here as the Team Total of 3.5 for them is entirely too low. The best bet here is to take the over on the Orioles team total and watch them possibly hit it in the first few innings.
BAL TT O 3.5 -125.
Toronto Blue Jays Vs. Boston Red Sox
Jose Berrios vs. Brayan Bello
This divisional series continues tonight as the Blue Jays look to lock up the series as they won 9-3 last night, while the struggling Red Sox look to hold their ground in the divisional standings and tie the series up at 1. The Jays have a veteran starter on the mound who has had his fair share of struggles on the year while the Red Sox have their prized pitching prospect on the mound.
Starting on the mound for the Red Sox in hopes of tying up this series is rookie Brayan Bello. He has pitched in just 5 games this year in the MLB and only started 3 of those games. In those outings, though he has an 8.47 ERA and a 3.98 xERA. The small sample size helps exaggerate the appearance of bad luck on his side this year as his xERA is more than half of his actual ERA. In his 3 starts this year he has totaled just 12 IP while allowing 14 ER, walking 8, and striking out 9. Makes sense as to why he was moved to the bullpen after those results. He did a sting on the IL after those outings and this will be his first appearance back for the Red Sox.
One of his 3 starts of the year was against these Blue Jays where he lasted just 4 innings while allowing 5 ER. Backing him up out of the bullpen will be the worst unit in all of baseball. Over the past month, they have had the highest ERA as a unit with a 5.42 ERA. The Blue Jay’s offense should continue to thrive against this pitching staff tonight.
For the Jays is veterans starter Jose Berrios who has had his moments of greatness and his moments of catastrophe so far on the mound this year. He brings with him an ERA of 5.39 and xERA of 5.35 on the season. Even with his ups and down the Jays do well with him pitching. So far this year the Blue Jays are 17-7 when he starts. His last time out against the Yankees he went 6.2 innings allowing just 1 ER and striking out 9 Bronx bombers. He is hoping to continue the positive streak as he faces a Red Sox offense that he has seen once already this year. In that outing he went 7 innings and allowed just 2 earned runs.
This Sox lineup tonight will be without Bogaerts, Pham, and Hosmer as well to help him get through another good start. Supporting him out of the bullpen will be a reliving crew with a 2.65 ERA over the past month, good for 4th in all of baseball.
The Blue Jays are 11-3 against the Red Sox so far this season, including 6-1 while at Fenway, which they will be today. Last month when the Jays came to Fenway they outscored the Red Sox 40-10. Take the hotter team with a good track record against their opponent in this venue to take game 2.
TOR ML -150.
Arizona Diamondbacks Vs. Kansas City Royals
Zac Gallen vs. Brady Singer
This series battle between two teams not fighting for particularly much continues tonight after the Diamondbacks took game 1 last night. Each team has their top starting pitcher going tonight who will face off against below-average offenses. If you’re a fan of pitching duels and low-scoring games, this will be your featured game of the night.
The Snakes will send young starter Zac Gallen to the mound tonight to start off the game. On the season he has a 2.78 ERA and a 3.42 xERA. Since the all-star break Gallen has the lowest ERA in all of baseball with a 0.92 ERA. He hasn’t allowed a run at all in his past 21.1 innings as he faced off against the Pirates, on the road against the Rockies, and the Giants. He will be taking on a Royals offense that has a team batting average of .182 over the past 10 games. In the past month the Royals are bottom 5 in all of baseball offensively both against righties, which Gallen is, and overall against all pitching in terms of wOBA (.285 vs RHP, .282 vs all opponents).
On the other side for the Royals will be Brady Singer taking the mound. On the season he has a 3.27 ERA and a 3.78 xERA. He has turned his season around in the past two months though. In July over 30.2 innings pitched he had a 2.05 ERA and so far in August has a 2.49 ERA. Specifically, in his last 3 outings he has allowed just 3 ER in 19.1 innings against offenses of the Rays, Dodgers, and White Sox.
Both starting pitchers in this matchup are on phenomenal streaks since the All-Star break and will be facing offenses that are bottom 10 in all of baseball. This is a perfect recipe for an underbet. The over/under as of right now is at 7.5. Both starting pitchers go long into games and should handle their opposition with ease. Take the under as the best bet of this game as betting on bad teams to win can be risky.
TOTAL UNDER 7.5, -115.