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Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins
There are only a handful of games on today’s slate that matter to the ending of the season and this is one of them. The Braves have nearly completed the impressive comeback to win their division and they just need to finish this last series vs the Marlins strong to clinch their division title.
Starting this ever-important series for the Braves will be rookie starting pitcher Bryce Elder. On his young season, he has a 2.76 ERA and a 4.17 xERA. In his four starts over the past two months, he has totaled 27.2 innings pitched and allowed just two earned runs while striking out 28 batters. He has started twice against this Marlins team and in those 10.2 innings he allowed just two earned runs and struck out nine Marlin batters.
On the other side for the Marlins looking to play playoff spoiler is Jesus Luzardo. Coming into his last start of the season he has a 3.53 ERA and a 3.47 xERA. He has had a very solid year with Miami but he tends to fall apart while pitching there, at home. In his home starts Luzardo has a 4.95 ERA. He has also faced today’s foe twice already this year and in those starts, he totaled ten innings pitched and allowed five earned runs while going 1-1.
The Marlins have been playing well as of late while trying to keep prospective playoff teams, but this matchup may be too much to overcome. The Braves are 7-3 in their last ten games and are coming off of a three-game sweep of the Mets who they are fighting with for the division. The Braves should easily overpower the Marlins today to keep the winning streak going.
ATL ML, -155.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers
This matchup is one of the other few meaningful matchups to end the season. The Brewers are currently on the outside looking into the playoffs but are within striking distance. They will take on the Snakes of Arizona this week to end the season and these Dbacks will be looking to play spoiler and keep the Brewers out of the playoffs entirely.
The starting pitcher for the Brewers today is Brandon Woodruff. On the season he carries a 3.05 ERA and a 3.15 xERA. He will be pitching at home in Milwaukee today where he is most comfortable. On the season while at home Woodruff has a 1.98 ERA. In his last five starts overall he has gone 33 innings while allowing just five earned runs. He will be taking on an Arizona offense that ranks 28th in baseball over the past month with an 83 wRC+ (league average is 100).
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On the other side for the Dbacks is Tommy Henry with his 5.98 ERA and 5.15 xERA. He has not fared well in the past month as in his last three starts he has thrown just 13 innings and allowed 17 earned runs to score. Backing him up out of the bullpen as it seems he will need the help today, is not much relief at all. The Arizona relievers over the past month have the 28th “best” ERA in baseball with a 5.40 ERA.
Neither offense has played particularly well as of late, but the Brewers have the far superior pitching staff today and with Henry’s trajectory over the past month the Brewers should be able to score early. Take the Brewers to win the first five innings of this game while the starting pitchers are in.
MIL F5 RL, -0.5, -140.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Houston Astros
This new series features the potential of two future playoff teams. The Astros have locked up everything they needed to already, but the Phillies are still fighting to retain their NL Wild Card spot. The Phillies by far have the toughest matchup to end the season and will start today desperately needing a win.
To start off this challenging series with the Astros the Phillies will send Aaron Nola to the bump today. On the season Nola has a 3.36 ERA and a 2.81 xERA. He has fared well over the past month as in the month of September he has a 2.93 ERA. He will be on the road in Houston tonight though, and in his last three road starts he has allowed 16 earned runs in just 17 innings pitched. So, his overall numbers appear to be spectacular but once you dive deeper you see that in this scenario, on the road, he has not fared well at all.
On the other side for the Astros will be Lance McCullers who brings a 2.38 ERA and a 3.57 xERA with him to the mound. McCullers spent the majority of the season on the injured list but since coming off he has not allowed more than three earned runs in any start. He has been even better at home though, where he will be tonight, as he has a 1.50 ERA in Houston over 24 innings pitched.
This is a very even matchup offensively as these two teams are both top seven offensively over the past month. It appears though that the Astros have the starting pitching advantage and even the better bullpen. The Astros have the third-best bullpen over the past 30 days while the Phillies have the 24th. Take the Astros in this first game of a pivotal series for the Phillies.
HOU ML, -120.
Bonus (Non-Best) Bets!
TOR ML: They are still fighting for a tie breaker in the playoffs.
NYY ML: Pitching advantage for the Yanks and the Rangers have lost 8 of 9.
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