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Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros
These two faced off in game one of this series on Tuesday and two of the hottest teams in the sport did not disappoint. Both offenses showed up in full force as the Astros won on a walk-off three-run home run to win 8-7. Will they continue with that momentum from two days ago or did the day off in between games give the Mariners the rest and time to refocus that they needed?
Starting today for the Mariners will be trade deadline acquisition, Luis Castillo. On the season with the Reds and Mariners, he had an ERA of 2.99 and an xERA of 3.31. He has already made one start this postseason in the last round against the Guardians. In that win for Castillo, he went 7.1 innings while allowing zero Guardians to score. His greatest advantage in this game is that he has never faced this Astros offense, they have never seen his stuff before, pitching gets the upper hand in this scenario.
On the other side for the Astros will be Framber Valdez with his 2.82 ERA and 3.31 xERA. He has yet to start in the playoffs this year due to Houston getting a first-round bye, but his history in the playoffs overall is not pretty. In the postseason Valdez has allowed 17 earned runs in just 19.2 innings pitched. He has faced this Seattle team twice already this year though at the beginning of the season and in those starts he went a combined 13.2 innings while allowing six earned runs and striking out 15.
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Both offenses are ready for this matchup as we saw in game one and with Valdez’s playoff history the Mariners’ offense should show up again today. With the Mariners having a day off between a devastating loss and today’s game I believe is a huge advantage for them not to have to go right back out there against a confident Astros team. Back the underdog Mariners to come out today and even the series.
SEA ML, +140.
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees
UPDATE: Since Posted Game has been Postponed.
The Yankees showed up in game one on a mission, to prove they’re as good as everyone said to start off the year. The Guardians came out flat in Yankee Stadium but look to bounce back and even this series before heading to Cleveland to continue the comeback.
Starting game two for the Guardians will be former Cy Young winner Shane Bieber. On the season he had a 2.88 ERA and a 3.51 xERA. He has started one game already in this postseason against the Rays, and in that start, he got the win while throwing 7.2 innings of one-run ball. He has been solid over the past month in general as well. In September, he had a 2.44 ERA in 28 innings pitched. He has a similar advantage today that this Yankees team hasn’t seen him so far this year, so they will be unfamiliar with his pitching repertoire.
On the other side for the Bronx Bombers will be Nestor Cortes on the bump. On the season he has a 2.44 ERA and a 2.70 xERA. He has had an equally as impressive last month on the mound as he has a 1.32 ERA in 27.1 innings pitched in the month of September. In his two starts versus this Guardians offense this season he went 12.1 innings while allowing just three earned runs and striking out 14.
This pitching matchup appears evenly matched, but when you dig into the offensive stats of the Yankees versus Bieber before this season, they have a .411 wOBA against him with a .294 batting average. The Yankees have hit right-handed pitchers like Bieber well over the past month, they rank fifth in baseball with a wOBA of .335 in that timespan. The Guardians’ offense has had the opposite luck as they have struggled to score lately. They have only scored four total runs in their three playoff games so far. Take the Yankees to extend their lead in this round of the playoffs and win this game to take it to 2-0.
NYY ML, -140.
Bonus (Non-Best) Bets!
SEA/HOU OVER 6.5: Game one yielded 15 runs and these starters aren’t as good. You can still get 6.5 on Fanduel, other books are up to 7. But 7 is still an attainable total in this game.
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