10/12/2022 Daily MLB Divisional Playoff Round Best Bets
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Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves
After a surprising underdog victory for the Phillies yesterday the defending champion Braves look to redeem themselves and even the series today. The Phillies had the advantage of starting their third starter yesterday while the Braves lost with their ace. But they look to even the series today with a top young starter on the mound.
The Braves will look to tie the series today on the back of Kyle Wright who comes into the playoffs with a season-long 3.19 ERA and a 3.89 xERA. He has had a great season but as of late he has not fared as well. In the past month of September and October, he has a 5.26 ERA in 25.2 innings pitched. He has fared well against these Phillies through three starts this season. He has totaled 19 IP, six ER, and 15 Ks.
On the other side for the Phillies will be Zack Wheeler who carries with him a 2.82 ERA and 3.10 xERA on the season. He dominated in his first start of the postseason against the Cardinals as he allowed zero Cardinals to score in 6.1 innings. In his past outings against the Braves, he has totaled 20 innings pitched in three outings while surrendering six earned runs and striking out 25. He has not allowed more than three runs against them since 2019.
We seem to have a pretty even matchup in this game when it comes to starting pitching. But if you look deeper into Wright’s numbers against Phillies hitters that changes a bit. Against the top three bats from the Phillies (Hoskins, Harper, Realmuto) they have .450, .520, and .527 wOBA’s against him. Those are astronomical numbers. Because of that and due to the volatility of the Phillies bullpen we are going to bet on the Philly offense to keep the runs coming and take them to win the first five innings of this game on plus money.
PHI F5 ML, +100.
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers jumped out to an early lead against Mike Clevinger and the Padres yesterday and never looked back. But, with their ace on the mound today San Diego looks to bounce back and even the series. Will the Dodgers offense keep it rolling, and will their long-time ace of their own allow them to get back in the series?
The Padres will send Yu Darvish to the mound today. On the season he had a 3.11 ERA and a 3.54 xERA. Over the past month he has dominated with a 1.85 ERA in 39 innings pitched. In his playoff start last round versus the Mets he went seven innings and allowed just one Met to score. He is familiar with this Dodgers offense as he has faced them four times already this season. In those starts he totaled 25 innings pitched, allowing seven earned runs and striking out 31.
Facing off against the Padres today will be former Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw. He had another spectacular season with a 2.88 ERA and a 2.51 xERA. He will be pitching at home today where he fares even better with a 2.39 ERA while in Los Angeles. Even better than that, he has also dominated over the past month with a 1.54 ERA in 41 innings pitched. In his outings vs this same foe he will face today he lasted 12 total innings while allowing just one earned run and striking out 11 Padres.
This pitching matchup may be one of the best of the postseason. The Dodgers do have the bullpen advantage though as they have the top reliever ERA over the past month with a miniscule 1.97. The Padres aren’t too shabby with a rank 13th with a 3.57 bullpen ERA, but the advantage goes to the Dodgers.
SD/LAD UNDER 7, +105.
Bonus (Non-Best) Bets!
PHI TT O 3.5: For the reasons listed above. They could hit this in the first 5.
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