The Peyton Watson Cavaliers era begins. Can the Cleveland Cavaliers’ big trade help them make it out of the Eastern Conference?
Following the the Watson trade, Cleveland signed him to a 4-year, $88 million contract. This indicates that the Cavaliers are committed to Watson’s development and ability to help them win now.
The deal is still fresh in the minds of NBA fans, so here are two reasons why Watson could improve Cleveland next season.
Last season, the Cavaliers had a league-average defense primarily because of the frontcourt of Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley. The team had the 15th-best defensive rating with 114.1 and was the 15th-best scoring defense, allowing 115.4 points per game. Cleveland had some success defensively as a team, but its guards struggled on with individual defensive coverage.
Donovan Mitchell, James Harden, and Max Strus all hurt the Cavs on defense last season. They all had a negative Defensive On/Off Rating, with Strus having the worst with a -7.4, and a negative Defensive Daily Plus-Minus. This is where Watson will have his biggest impact on the Cavaliers.
Watson could immediately improve Cleveland’s defense with his defensive playmaking and shot-contesting abilities. Last season, he averaged 1.1 blocks per game, which finished in the 99th percentile amongst shooting guards. Maintaining an 84.5-inch wingspan, he can defend perimeter shot attempts and stuff shots at the rim. Additionally, Watson defends 21.4 field goal attempts per 100 possessions and influences opponents’ shot quality by -0.4.
This deal will help take the load off Mitchell and Harden. Neither of them is a consistent perimeter defender. Watson’s arrival will help both see easier perimeter matchups and conserve stamina for offense.
By acquiring Watson, the Cavaliers now have a versatile defender who could take on tough assignments. Though Watson didn’t have a great defensive rating last season, with a -2.7, that was largely due to playing on one of the worst defensive teams in the league. He will now have Allen and Mobley behind him, so he will be able to pressure the ball more to create turnovers and force poor shot attempts.
Over the course of his career, Watson has steadily improved as a scorer. Last season, he shot the ball the best he ever had, shooting career highs from three, the free-throw line, and the long mid-range. He also averaged a career high in points with 14.6, while shooting 49.1% from the field.
In addition to Watson’s overall scoring improvement, he showcased his shot-creating ability often last season. 21% of his shot attempts came from creation (isolation, pick-and-roll ball handler) last year, the most in his career. Watson’s offensive improvements, especially when compared to Straus, should make him more valuable for Cleveland.
Strus was limited offensively, as the majority of his shot attempts came from spot-up attempts. Meanwhile, Watson was more efficient than Strus at finishing near the rim, scoring in transition, and shooting from three last season.
Though Strus does shoot more three-point attempts per game and has a higher gravity, he is not as productive offensively. Watson’s Net Rating was +8.0 higher than Strus’, and his Offensive On/Off Rating was higher by 4.9.
By being a more diverse and effective scorer, Watson could have a big impact on the Cavaliers’ offense. His ability to play with and without the ball will provide Cleveland with spacing and another scoring threat.
One could argue that Watson’s offensive success was a product of Nikola Jokic. Even if this is true, the Cavaliers have a dominant backcourt that will help Watson offensively.
Mitchell and Harden make up one of the most talented backcourts in the NBA. They combine for 34.8 potential assists and 84 points created per game. If Watson were a beneficiary of Jokic, then his offensive production should continue while playing with two offensive maestros.
Also, in games without Jokic, Watson increased his offensive volume. He averaged 22.1 points and shot 44.3% from three in those games. Watson may not suddenly jump into an offensive superstar, but by playing with two high-level creators, he could take advantage of scoring opportunities.
Continued offensive growth will help Watson offer the Cavaliers more flexibility. If he can improve his shot-creation and keep his efficiency, Cleveland could find itself with a well-balanced team that doesn’t rely solely on its backcourt.
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The Cavaliers acquiring Watson could be enough to get them over the hump. They have been a top-four seed in the Eastern Conference each of the last four seasons but have gassed out in the playoffs.
Watson should have an impact offensively, but on the defensive end is where he is going to take charge. By pairing him with a frontcourt of Mobley and Allen, Cleveland could force teams to take low-percentage and contested shots.
This offseason has seen several teams in the Eastern Conference make moves towards contention. With this trade, the Cavaliers are throwing their hat in the ring for the battle of the East.
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