In Week 6, the New England Patriots face their division rival, the New York Jets, at Gillette Stadium. This Patriots vs. Jets matchup will likely be different from their two meetings last year, as both teams made several roster changes. Though New York enters as a 2-3 team, they pose a challenge that shouldn’t be overlooked. If New England can have success in these four areas, they could put themselves in a position to win and move to 4-2.
The first key to victory in this Patriots vs. Jets matchup is winning at the line of scrimmage. After a slow start to the season, Drake Maye has been in full stride the past two weeks. In his last two performances, he has thrown for 643 yards and 8 total touchdowns with a 67.6% completion rate. More importantly, he has improved his production and efficiency while being under pressure.
In New England’s last two games, its offensive line has allowed 23 pressures and 2 sacks. Throughout the season, Maye is facing the most pressure of his career, as he’s been pressured on 25.7% of his dropbacks. While the Patriots earned wins the last two weeks, they have to improve their pass protection against a rising pass rush.
The Jets’ pass rush, led by David Bailey, was disruptive last week against the Cleveland Browns. They pressured Deshaun Watson 19 times on 43.2% of his dropbacks, resulting in 8 sacks. Bailey had a breakout performance against the Browns’ offensive line, as he recorded 11 pressures and 3 sacks.
The Patriots’ offensive line needs to protect Maye and not allow New York’s pass rush to disrupt him as often as they did Watson. New England will be without left tackle Will Campbell, who suffered a knee injury against the Raiders. Caleb Lomu is the most likely replacement, as he only allowed one pressure when he stepped in for Campbell last week. Regardless of who fills the role, Bailey and the Jets’ pass rush need to be limited for Mike Vrabel’s team to find success offensively.
Disrupting and forcing Geno Smith to turn the ball over is the second key to victory in the Patriots vs. Jets matchup. In Smith’s last game against New England last season, he led the Raiders to a 20-13 win by throwing for 362 yards and a touchdown. His success was aided by a clean pocket, as he was only pressured eight times on 20.5% of his dropbacks.
The Patriots must get after Smith to prevent his previous success from repeating. New England’s pass rush has been solid, but it’s lacking consistency. Throughout the season, they have a 23.3% pressure rate and 11 sacks. While this production is around league average, it has to be more frequent.
Although Smith hasn’t thrown an interception this season, he has fumbled four times, losing two of them. In his last game against the Browns, he was sacked, fumbled, and Cleveland recovered the ball around midfield. Since the Patriots have some explosive pass rushers, they should look to create similar opportunities.
Elijah Ponder and Gabe Jacas have been the top edge rushers for New England this season. Ponder has recorded 4.5 sacks with 11 pressures, and Jacas has gathered 1.5 sacks with 5 pressures. If this duo can attack Smith, they could put his ball security to the test. Even if they can’t force fumbles, disrupting his timing and forcing errant passes could potentially lead to interceptions.
Another key to victory in this Patriots vs. Jets matchup is Rhamondre Stevenson’s production on the ground. Stevenson has been solid this year, rushing for 227 yards with 4.0 yards per carry. Though he leads New England in rushing yards, his attempts have declined after TreVeyon Henderson returned in Week 2. Nevertheless, Henderson suffered an ankle injury last week, which means Stevenson may see the bulk of the carries.
Stevenson is coming off his most productive performance this season, compiling 64 yards and a touchdown. Though New York has a better run defense than Las Vegas, they are still susceptible to the ground game. The Jets have surrendered 590 total rushing yards and rank seventh-worst in rushing yards allowed to running backs with 511. Their issues against the run offer Stevenson an opportunity to be productive on the ground.
The Patriots are an offense that looks to run the ball, as they rank sixth in rushing attempts with 151. With this tendency to establish a ground game, they could take advantage of the Jets’ struggling run defense. If Stevenson can provide New England with good production on the ground, it could produce a balanced offensive attack to sustain drives and generate points.
Shutting down Garrett Wilson is the final key to victory in the Patriots vs. Jets Week 6 matchup. He is New York’s main source of offense as he leads them in scrimmage yards and combined touchdowns. Throughout the season, he has 31 receptions for 374 yards and 3 touchdowns. He brings down 73.8% of his targets, highlighting his threat as a receiving option.
Though slowing down Wilson won’t be easy, New England has the personnel to do so. Christian Gonzalez is returning to action after missing the last two games. He’s been very productive, allowing only eight completions for 43 yards in his three appearances. Also, he limits yards after the catch (YAC), as he only gave up 19 YAC by recording 8 tackles.
Beyond Gonzalez, the Patriots’ secondary has been making it difficult for opposing teams to target their top receiver. In their game against the Steelers, DK Metcalf was limited to just four receptions for 27 yards. By taking away the team’s WR1, New England is forcing offenses to take short pass attempts, as they have the second-lowest average depth of target at 6.6 yards. If they can have similar success against Wilson, they could make New York find other offensive avenues and restrict their passing attack.
This Patriots vs. Jets Week 6 matchup may be closer than many people expect, but New England has a path to victory with these four keys. Protecting Maye and taking advantage of New York struggles against the run, the Patriots can manage a consistent offensive attack to end drives with scoring points. Defensively, forcing turnovers from Smith and limiting Wilson could disrupt New York’s offense from getting into rhythm. If the team executes in these areas, they could put themselves in position to secure another win.
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