It is becoming more likely that the New England Patriots will trade Kayshon Boutte before the start of the season. According to NBC’s Albert Breer, New England is looking to work with Boutte to send him to a team that will offer more playing time this upcoming contract year.
Boutte is entering the last year of his rookie deal, and the Patriots have recently taken on two large contracts at wide receiver for A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs. Trading him would save them roughly $3.7 million.
With his expected departure, the Patriots will lose one of the league’s top deep-vertical threats. Though this could greatly impact New England’s ability to stretch the field, it will provide snaps to WRs that could create more separation and offer more route variation.
As mentioned, Boutte is an impressive downfield WR. He finished last season with 16.7 yards per reception and caught 71% of his targets while running Go routes. His receptions on Go routes resulted in four touchdowns and had an EPA (Expected Points Added) per target of +1.39.
The receiver’s impact as a one-on-one deep threat has been clear, but Boutte’s inability to separate from coverage has also been apparent.
Last season, Boutte averaged 2.31 yards of separation, falling in the bottom 11th percentile amongst receivers. Defenses also gave him five yards of cushion on average, which could imply that they didn’t fear him creating separation to beat coverage deep consistently.
This was highlighted during the playoffs, where in the Patriots’ four postseason games, Boutte had nine receptions for 168 yards. For comparison, Mack Hollins played in two games and compiled six receptions for 129 yards on 10 targets.
With him struggling to get open against coverage, Boutte potential getting traded would allow better separators to see the field.
DeMario Douglas averaged 3.27 yards of separation last season, which was the most by any Patriots receiver. After splitting from defenders, Douglas also makes them miss, as he gains +1.36 YAC (Yards After Catch) over expectation. Meanwhile, Boutte averages -0.26 YAC over expectation.
Boutte played 319 more offensive snaps than Douglas did last season, so his departure could result in a shiftier receiver gaining more snaps and beating coverage.
Along with his lack of separating from coverage, Boutte doesn’t run a diverse route tree. On his 46 targets during the regular season, 30% of them came when he was running a Go route. The 24-year-old’s 30% usage on Go routes was higher than that of any other Patriots WR on their top route.
Meanwhile, other Patriots receivers were targeted on more varied routes.
Douglas had more than 13% usage on Quick Outs, Deep Outs, Digs, Posts, and Screens. Hollins had more than 16% usage on Digs, Gos, Curls, and Quicks Outs.
The two new additions to the Patriots’ offense were also used more diversely last season. The Philadelphia Eagles used Brown primarily on Curls, Slants, Gos, and Deep Outs. Meanwhile, the Green Bay Packers found success with Doubs on Hitches, Digs, and Deep Outs.
Though New England will have WRs that specialize in running more distinct routes, one could rightfully ask how they would replace Boutte’s ability to win on Go routes.
Nevertheless, while having a small sample size, Kyle Williams has similar success to Boutte on Go routes. Williams had an EPA per target of +1.21 and an average depth of 33.4 yards on Go routes.
If Williams can continue his deep route production, or even expand on it, he could ensure that the Patriots will maintain a downfield vertical threat.
Over the last few seasons, Boutte has become a fan favorite amongst Patriots fans while building chemistry with quarterback Drake Maye. But it looks to be advantageous for both sides to work on a trade.
For Boutte, he will need guaranteed playing time, as he will be looking to perform well to earn a big contract. Though it’s still unclear what the Patriots could get in return, they have clear positional needs.
On the surface, Boutte potentially being traded doesn’t sound ideal, but New England already has WRs on the roster that could improve on his flaws and production. If a trade is finalized, the Patriots could see better separators, varied route runners, and rising vertical threats all on the field at once.
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