NFL Week Ten has several games where the favorite looks obvious, along with a few lines that are close enough to make things interesting. Jacksonville enters as one of the biggest favorites of the week, while games such as Patriots-Lions and Packers-Vikings are much harder to predict. Looking through the matchups, these are the teams I would trust the most, and where the current odds make sense.
Jaguars Over Titans
Jacksonville has one of the easiest matchups of Week Ten against Tennessee. The Jaguars entered the week at 6-2 while the Titans were sitting at 1-7, and Jacksonville is favored by around 10.5 points. The Jaguars also just beat Baltimore 33-10, giving us another example of how large the gap can become when Jacksonville controls a game.
The main problem is the spread. Winning by 11 points is a lot different from simply winning the game. Jacksonville should be one of the safest moneyline choices of the week, while laying -10.5 gives Tennessee plenty of room to cover during garbage time.
Prediction: Jaguars 28, Titans 17.
Bills Over Jets
Buffalo should have a clear advantage against the Jets. The Bills entered Week Ten at 6-1 compared with New York at 2-6, and Buffalo is favored by around 7.5 points.
The records already show the difference between these teams, and Buffalo entered the week with a point differential around +52. The Jets have struggled to consistently score enough to keep up with better offenses, which becomes dangerous against a Buffalo team that can create separation quickly.
The spread being above seven makes me slightly cautious, but Buffalo winning outright is one of the easier predictions on the schedule.
Prediction: Bills 27, Jets 17.
49ers Over Cowboys
San Francisco at around -4.5 is probably one of my favorite lines.
The 49ers entered the week at 6-1 while Dallas came in at 3-5. San Francisco also had a point differential of around +58, showing that its record has come with plenty of convincing wins rather than constantly escaping one-score games.
Dallas can score enough to make this interesting, especially at home, but the Cowboys have been far less consistent. Getting San Francisco below a touchdown gives some room even if Dallas keeps the game close through three quarters.
Prediction: 49ers 30, Cowboys 24.
Chiefs Over Falcons
Kansas City being favored by only around three points against Atlanta immediately makes this game interesting.
The Chiefs entered the week at 5-2 while Atlanta was 3-6 after losing 34-17 to Cincinnati. A field-goal spread means Kansas City only needs a normal four-point victory to cover, and the overall records already give the Chiefs a decent advantage.
Atlanta being at home is part of why the number remains close. Still, getting Kansas City around -3 feels much better than paying a massive spread with one of the larger favorites.
Prediction: Chiefs 27, Falcons 21.
Rams Over Cardinals
Los Angeles is favored by around a touchdown against Arizona, and the Rams should be able to control this matchup if their offense plays normally.
The Rams and Cardinals entered the week relatively close in the standings, which makes the spread interesting. Arizona was 3-5, while Los Angeles was around .500, yet sportsbooks still gave the Rams a much larger advantage than the records alone would suggest.
Anything around Rams -7 is reasonable. Once the line starts moving toward -9, the value becomes much harder to justify because Arizona only needs a late touchdown to ruin the spread.
Prediction: Rams 27, Cardinals 19.
Bengals Over Steelers
Cincinnati and Pittsburgh entered this matchup with matching 6-2 records, yet the Bengals are favored by around three points at home. AFC North games are usually difficult to predict because these teams see each other so often. That familiarity can keep games close even when one team looks better statistically.
Cincinnati getting the home-field advantage makes sense, and -3 gives the Bengals enough room to win by a normal field goal without needing a huge performance.
Prediction: Bengals 24, Steelers 20.
Seahawks Over Raiders
Seattle is favored by around 5.5 points against Las Vegas, which is a little more difficult because both teams entered the week around 4-4.
The line tells us sportsbooks see more separation than the records show. Seattle has enough talent to justify being favored, though laying almost six points on the road adds more risk.
For this matchup I would rather trust Seattle to win outright than depend on a touchdown-sized margin.
Prediction: Seahawks 26, Raiders 21.
Lions Over Patriots
Detroit-New England might be one of the hardest games of the week.
The Lions entered around 5-2 while New England was 5-3, and Detroit is only favored by roughly 1.5 points. Since the game is being played in Munich, neither team gets a normal home-field advantage either.
That basically gives us a near coin flip. Detroit gets the slight edge because of its overall roster, though a one-possession game would not surprise me at all.
Prediction: Lions 24, Patriots 21.
Packers Over Vikings
Green Bay is favored by around 2.5 to three points against Minnesota despite the Vikings entering the week with the better record.
Minnesota was 6-1 while Green Bay was 5-3, which immediately makes this one of the stranger lines. Green Bay being at home explains part of it, though Minnesota has played well enough that giving the Vikings points is tempting.
There is very little separation here, so this is one of the games I would stay away from.
Prediction: Packers 23, Vikings 21.
Texans Over Browns
Houston-Cleveland has one of the lowest expected totals of the week at around 39.5 points, so the market clearly expects a defensive game.
Houston is favored by roughly 3.5 to 4.5 points. That becomes dangerous in a low-scoring matchup because every field goal means more. Cleveland staying within four becomes much easier if the entire game finishes somewhere around 20-17.
Houston still gets my pick to win, though the moneyline makes more sense than trying to cover more than a field goal.
Prediction: Texans 21, Browns 17.
My Best Week Ten Picks
Jacksonville is probably the safest team to simply win. A 6-2 team playing a 1-7 Tennessee team explains why the Jaguars are laying double digits.
San Francisco around -4.5 gives me the best combination of team quality and a manageable spread. The 49ers entered at 6-1 with one of the strongest point differentials in football, yet they only need to win by five.
Kansas City around -3 is another line I like. The Chiefs have the better record and Atlanta just lost by 17 points to Cincinnati, so asking Kansas City to win by four does not feel excessive.
Bills moneyline and Rams moneyline also make sense if the goal is simply finding likely winners instead of chasing bigger payouts.
End Of My Week Ten Rant
The team I trust the most to win is Jacksonville, though the -10.5 spread makes the actual bet more complicated. San Francisco gives us a better number at around -4.5, and Kansas City around -3 might be the cleanest short favorite on the schedule.
Games like Lions-Patriots and Packers-Vikings have much smaller gaps between the teams, so there is less reason to force a pick there.
For Week Ten, my strongest three are Jaguars to win, 49ers -4.5, and Chiefs around -3. The numbers can always move before kickoff, so getting the right price matters almost as much as picking the right team.
