NFL Week 4 player props are locked in and we finally give us enough real-season data to stop guessing and start attacking these matchups. My process stays the same: workload first, then matchup, expected game script, injuries, weather and finally the price we actually have to bet. This has been the script for me for the last 8 years and it works very well.
The board can still move before Sunday, so every number truly matters. A prop I like at 245.5 can turn into a pass at 249.5. That price sensitivity is going to matter throughout this card. So, pay attention and take my advice on the numbers seriously.
For more on how I attack these markets, check out my previous Stadium Rant breakdown of NFL Week 2 Player Props.
My five favorite NFL Week 4 player props are C.J. Stroud over 245.5 passing yards, Joe Burrow over 267.5 passing yards, Ja’Marr Chase over 79.5 receiving yards, Amon-Ra St. Brown over 76.5 receiving yards and Christian Watson to score a touchdown at around +165.
| Rank | Prop | Target |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | C.J. Stroud Passing Yards | Over 245.5 |
| 2 | Joe Burrow Passing Yards | Over 267.5 |
| 3 | Ja’Marr Chase Receiving Yards | Over 79.5 |
| 4 | Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving Yards | Over 76.5 |
| 5 | Christian Watson Anytime TD | +165 Range |
Odds and prop lines can change before kickoff. I’m betting the numbers listed here, not blindly playing the same side at whatever number shows up Sunday morning.
This is easily my favorite yardage prop on this NFL Week 4 player props board. That is saying a lot, this weeks slate is loaded with games that can provide some great value for prop players.
Dallas has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 61 of 84 passes, a 72.6% completion rate, for 623 yards and seven touchdowns through three games. The Cowboys have also generated only two sacks on those 84 pass attempts.
That matchup gets more interesting with Nico Collins returning. Collins practiced fully and was removed from Houston’s final injury report, giving Stroud his top receiver back against a secondary that has already struggled to keep passing games under control.
Stroud’s passing-yard market can still be found around 245.5, although the number varies significantly by sportsbook. Some books have already shown numbers several yards higher, which is exactly why I’m putting a limit on this bet.
Bet: C.J. Stroud Over 245.5 Passing Yards
Playable To: 247.5
Pass At: 248.5+
Check C.J. Stroud Passing Yards Market
Burrow is coming off 282 passing yards against Pittsburgh and now gets Jacksonville in one of my favorite game environments on the entire slate. This game should bring fireworks!
He enters Week 4 averaging 247.7 passing yards, while Jacksonville is allowing 235.7 passing yards per game. The important part is what those numbers don’t tell you: Burrow has cleared 267.5 passing yards only once through his first three games.
That doesn’t scare me off because this isn’t a season-trend bet. I’m betting the matchup, expected volume and game environment. Cincinnati has every reason to let Burrow throw, and Jacksonville presents a different challenge than the defenses he faced during the first three weeks.
Bet: Joe Burrow Over 267.5 Passing Yards
Playable To: 269.5
Pass At: 270.5+
Check Joe Burrow Passing Yards Market
Burrow has a big day, you know we have to Chase the bag! It’s only natural to take the ultimate Bengals stack. This is the follow up to the Burrow bet, but I want the right number here.
Chase has 18 receptions on 25 targets for 185 yards and three touchdowns through three games. He saw 12 targets against Pittsburgh alone, catching nine passes for 98 yards and a score.
The 79.5 receiving-yard line is still available on tracked Week 4 boards, but this one has already moved around by sportsbook. That matters. I like Chase at 79.5; I do not like blindly betting his over if the market pushes him deep into the 80s.
I’m also treating Burrow and Chase as correlated bets, so I wouldn’t size both as if they were completely independent plays. If Cincinnati’s passing attack disappoints, both bets can get dragged down together.
Bet: Ja’Marr Chase Over 79.5 Receiving Yards
Playable To: 82.5
Pass At: 83.5+
Check Ja’Marr Chase Receiving Yards Market
St. Brown’s role comes first here. This seems like a Sunday night spot against a Panthers defense that just screams Amon-Ra career game.
Through three games, he has 23 receptions on 34 targets for 228 yards and five touchdowns. That works out to more than 11 targets per game, and he has already seen target counts of 14 and 13 this season.
Now add the matchup. Carolina placed starting cornerbacks Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson on injured reserve this week, leaving a young secondary to deal with one of Detroit’s highest-volume targets.
The game environment helps too. The Lions-Panthers total is sitting around 50.5 at multiple sportsbooks, giving this one one of the stronger scoring environments on Sunday’s card.
Bet: Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 76.5 Receiving Yards
Playable To: 79.5
Pass At: 80.5+
Check Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving Yards Market
Watson anytime touchdown prop is easily my favorite plus-money touchdown play for Sunday. This prop holds a lot of value and I have no problem rolling the dice at this price tag.
This isn’t about forcing another receiving-yard over. I’d rather take advantage of his scoring role while the market is still giving us a decent plus-money price.
DraftKings and other tracked books have Watson sitting around +160 to +165 for an anytime touchdown, and he has scored in seven of his last 10 games dating back to last season.
That price is what separates Watson from some of the more obvious touchdown candidates. I don’t want to lay -250 or -300 on an anytime touchdown unless the situation is exceptional. Watson gives us a legitimate scoring path without paying that premium.
Bet: Christian Watson Anytime Touchdown +165
Playable To: +140
Pass At: +130 Or Shorter
Check Christian Watson Anytime TD Market
Jaguars against the Bengals is the game I see the most prop potential. Don’t be surprised to see a shoot out between Burrows and Lawrence on Sunday. This game could turn out to be the highest total of the week.
Burrow and Chase give me two ways to attack the same Cincinnati passing-game thesis, and the matchup should create enough volume to make both lines interesting. Not only is this game the first place I’m looking when I shop NFL Week 4 player prop bets, it’s the game that holds my biggest bet of the week! I’m attacking the over 49.5 with extreme hostility.
Lions against the Panthers is right behind it. Detroit enters averaging 31 points per game, Carolina’s starting cornerback tandem is on injured reserve and the total is sitting around 50.5 at multiple books.
Those are the two environments I suggest you dig into before kickoff. Do your own research and follow your instincts in these two games and you should have a good edge over the books on hitting these overs and props.
Stroud over 245.5 is my favorite straight prop right now. Burrow and Chase give us the strongest correlated passing-game angle, while St. Brown combines elite target volume with a Carolina secondary missing both starting corners.
Watson is different. He’s the plus-money swing I want on the card instead of paying an inflated touchdown price on one of the obvious favorites.
My biggest bet is not in a NFL Week 4 player props, it’s the Over 49.5 in the Bengals against Jaguars game. I truly believe that when it comes to props, your biggest edge is knowing when not to bet. Nico Collins return is already accounted for in my Stroud bet, but Sunday inactives and overnight line movement can still change this board very easily. I’ll take the number seriously enough to pass if the market moves beyond my playable range. Good luck and let’s cash!
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