The conference finals are set. Playing with house money, the Commanders travel to take on the Philadelphia Eagles. Washington is ahead of schedule and dangerous. Can the Commanders continue their underdog story, or are the Eagles too much of a test?
The Commanders won two postseason games as the underdog to get here, beating the Super Bowl favorite Detroit Lions 45-31 after they disposed of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23-20. Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels has elevated this offense much sooner than expected.
Washington has the spark of the rookie but also boasts the third-ranked overall run offense. They also rank third in pass defense but carry the weight of being the third-worst run defense, which may prove tricky against the Eagles’ ground threats.
The Eagles have a recipe for success, combining the best defense in the league with the second-ranked run offense. Philadelphia is the only team to allow fewer than 300 yards per game in the regular season, at 278.4. With one of the best O-lines in the league, running back Saquon Barkley re-established himself as an elite threat. Quarterback Jalen Hurts is a story of interest because of his down year statistically and the knee brace worn at the end of the game against the Rams.
Bodog has the Eagles as -6.0 point favorites as of early Friday. The Commanders have a tough matchup, putting their 30th-ranked run defense against Eagles running back Saquon Barkley. The Commanders have not had a tough test defensively this postseason, allowing them to average an extra 77.9 yards per game compared to the regular season. Washington has the challenge of moving from defenses in the league’s bottom half to the league’s best.
Barkley has 150 or more rushing yards in three of the last four games and has the third-worst run defense to deal with. The Eagles leaned heavily on Barkley all season, and with the potential of a knee injury to their quarterback, look for them to run whenever possible. The Commanders allowed 137.1 rush yards per game in the regular season and 151.0 over this postseason. If you are a conservative gambler, you can get 130+ at -114. For a value play, you can get 150+ rush yards at +141.
The Commanders have a tough matchup but have been doubted every round this postseason. This has been a successful season for Washington, regardless of how this game goes. With a rookie quarterback and plenty of cap space, look for the Commanders to be even more dangerous moving forward.
Howe Fresh
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