If you’re able to win a race throughout the regular season, you lock yourself into the 16-car playoff field. The following drivers have done just that and don’t need to fight for a spot in the long run.
Kyle Larson has delivered a standout performance in the 2025 NASCAR season, securing multiple victories in the Cup Series. He won at Kansas and Bristol, leading a record 221 laps at Kansas and dominating 411 laps at Bristol .
Hamlin secured back-to-back victories at Martinsville and Darlington, showcasing classic Hamlin dominance. These wins, along with a solid finish at Nashville, have solidified his position in the playoffs.
Christopher Bell had an amazing start to his 2025 NASCAR Cup Series season. He secured victories at Atlanta, Circuit of The Americas (COTA), and Phoenix, marking the first time a driver has won three consecutive races with the Next Gen car.
William Byron has been the most consistent driver in the field this year. He secured his second consecutive Daytona 500 victory, becoming the first driver since Denny Hamlin in 2019–2020 to win back-to-back Daytona 500s.
Ryan Blaney’s 2025 NASCAR Cup Series season has been a rollercoaster of performance and misfortune. After an early-season crash at Daytona and three consecutive DNFs, Blaney rebounded with a dominant win at Nashville Superspeedway, leading 139 of 300 laps.
Logano has had a usually challenging season for a defending champion. Including no Top-10s in his first six races. He was able to break through at Texas Motor Speedway and clinch a playoff spot.
After a 50-point penalty at COTA, it seemed like Cindric’s playoff hopes were done. He was able to overcome this penalty by winning at Talladega and not having to rely on points.
Berry would be towards the bottom of the “bubble” category as he sits 19th in points. Berry was able to get his first career victory at Las Vegas to clinch a spot in the playoffs.
SVG has struggled to adjust to his new role in NASCAR. Entering the inaugural Mexico race in the bottom 5 in points. In dominating fashion, he was able to pull off a victory and secure his playoff position.
Chastain has had a solid season as he sits 8th in points with 3 top 5s. He pulled off a dramatic win in Charlotte during the Coca-Cola-600. He will not need to do any wall rides this season to make sure he gets into the playoffs.
Even though they have the points and finishes, these drivers have not officially clinched a spot in the playoff field.
Elliott is the highest-ranked driver that does not have a win. He sits 4th in regular season points, +146 to the cutline. He is viewed as a real championship contender despite his winless season.
The defending regular-season champion has not seen the amount of success as his 2024 season. Sitting +123 to the cutline he should comfortably make the playoffs.
With 12 drivers essentially already in, that leaves 4 spots for the rest of the field. This large group of drivers will be fighting for those final points spot.
Wallace is right on the edge of this category, at +57, but with the potential for new winners you can never be sure.
Briscoe struggled at some parts during his first season with JGR. Leading the field with 4 poles this season, the speed is there. It is possible to see the 19 in victory lane this year which would take away any risk of being on the bubble.
Bowman has earned consistent top-10 performances, but struggling to get more than that has put him in a tough spot. He currently sits at +22.
With multiple top-10 finishes, Buescher remains a strong contender for the playoffs, aiming to convert his consistent speed into wins. He currently sits as the last driver above the cutline at +19.
In his first season at RFK, Preece is having a career year. With two stage wins and a top-5, Preece has given himself a real chance at the playoffs. Sitting right outside the cutline at -19 behind teammate Chris Buescher.
McDowell left FRM this offseason and joined the 71 team at Spire. He has shown real speed multiple times this season, including at Las Vegas where he got the pole. McDowell sits at -43, the second driver behind the cutline.
Allmendinger has the opportunity to go on a major run to end the 2025 season. With numerous road courses coming up, the road course ringer will look to break through and make a surge towards the playoffs.
This is not a situation Kyle Busch would typically find himself in. Normally locked in at this point of the season, now Busch finds himself 50 points back of a playoff spot. It will take a major push for the former champion to make it.
Hocevar has shown incredible speed and potential at Spire this season. Getting into some trouble with Ricky Stenhouse may worsen his situation at -60 to the cutline.
Stenhouse may be in some of the worst equipment in the field. As a one-car team, it is amazing Stenhouse has gotten the 47 to this point.
Jones has shown glimpses of speed as of late, but it may be too late. Sitting at -62, he will need an incredible run to make the playoffs.
These drivers are so far behind that they have no other way into the playoffs without a victory. This section will only go over drivers that seem to have a chance at victory, no offense to Cody Ware fans.
Gibbs has been on a great run lately, perhaps the best of his career. Without a win in over 100 career starts it may seem unlikely, but Gibbs has shown speed and may be on the verge of breaking through.
Keselowski has been a victim of some of the worst luck seen this season. Constant unfortunate and non-preventable instances have derailed his season. The former champion could definitely break through get a victory and make the playoffs.
In the end, there appear to be four open spots in the playoffs. Who will that be? It appears Bubba Wallace has enough of a lead to withstand the oncomers. Chase Briscoe has shown elite speed and has been on a recent tear. It is likely he will get a win and lock his 19 car into the playoffs. Ty Gibbs has shown his great talent in the past two races, and it shouldn’t surprise anyone if he picks up a win. The last spot is really open, with anyone on the bubble a real threat to steal a spot in the field of 16.
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