The MLB free agency hot stove is on full blast with a wave of players being taken off the board during the winter meetings in Orlando, Florida.
A trio of big-time moves began when designated hitter Kyle Schwarber returned to the Philadelphia Phillies on a five-year, $150 million contract Dec. 9. The market accelerated when, minutes later, New York Mets closer Edwin Diaz set sights for the Los Angeles Dodgers on a three-year, $69 million contract.
Then, in a double whammy for the Mets, first baseman Pete Alonso and the Baltimore Orioles agreed to a five-year, $155 million contract the next day. A few other moves took place, including Gregory Soto signing with the Pittsburgh Pirates and Robert Suarez going to the Atlanta Braves.
With the market moving along, the question turns to the remaining free agents on the board: Who is going to end up where?
The 30-year-old outfielder is coming off a bounce-back season after a down year in 2024. Bellinger put up a .272/.334/.813 OPS with 29 home runs and 98 RBIs, the best home run and RBI totals since his 2019 MVP campaign. He’s arguably the best batter out of all the free agents remaining.
Bellinger’s relationship with the New York Yankees this offseason has been hot and cold. One day, it seems like New York is poised to re-sign him, then the next day they aren’t even close.
The Mets, on the other hand, are losing high-powered players left and right following the signing of Juan Soto last year. They lost the aforementioned Diaz and Alonso, along with reliever Tyler Rogers and Brandon Nimmo. Cohen and Stearns need to sign a marquee-type player for their roster and fast.
The Toronto Blue Jays are also making serious moves and need another bat, being heavily linked to the outfielder market this offseason. The Cincinnati Reds also might pivot after losing out on Alonso, while the San Francisco Giants might seek help after losing Mike Yastrzemski.
However, the Yankees are a team desperate to keep things together, though they are insisting on a five-year deal only. If the market doesn’t improve, they could win.
Prediction: Yankees on a five-year, $175 million deal
Once Bellinger goes, Tucker will likely follow suit next in the free agents department. His market might be a little more lucrative, given he’s younger and has a more consistent ceiling in his production.
Arguably, the 28-year-old’s market might be more crowded than Bellinger’s market because of it. Those involved in the Bellinger market are absolutely going to butt heads on Tucker. The question becomes “who wins?”
It’s entirely possible a dark horse candidate comes out and snags Tucker, including the Los Angeles Dodgers. That’s not a far-fetched move, seeing they won’t resign Michael Conforto and as their outfield serves as their real lone area of concern. A signing of Tucker could bump Teoscar Hernandez to left field to make room for him.
However, in a more realistic world, it will come down to the Blue Jays and Mets. One thing to consider for Blue Jays fans is that their payroll is now an estimated $292 million post-arbitration. They likely won’t go over $300 million and want to save for Bo Bichette, which could give the upper hand to the Mets. It could be the only big-time signing the team does this year out of all the free agents on the market.
Prediction: Mets on a seven-year, $240 million deal
Bregman’s market has been the most quiet out of all the free agents. His name really hasn’t appeared in the winter meetings or in general. It seems most teams either have a lockdown third baseman or have one in the pipeline within the next two years.
There’s a high probability that Bregman remains with the Red Sox, but the Seattle Mariners and Philadelphia Phillies might check in. The Phillies are actively shopping Alec Bohm after a rocky stint with the team, while the Mariners could lose Eugenio Suarez this offseason.
It’s fair to assume Bregman could join Schwarber in Philadelphia, but after Baltimore signed Alonso, the American League East just got better. The Red Sox are sure to prioritize Bregman for good now, and they’ll likely win with a slightly cheaper contract.
Prediction: Red Sox on a five-year, $190 million deal with deferrals
Bo Bichette: Blue Jays on a seven-year, $140 million deal
Eugenio Suarez: Phillies on a three-year, $75 million deal
J.T. Realmuto: Phillies on a two-year, $18 million deal
Munetaka Murakami: Giants on a three-year, $60 million deal
The most lucrative yet controversial of the free agents in the pitching market, Valdez is garnering large interest. Despite concerns about his conduct and character after crossing his catcher up, he’s still effective on the mound.
Baltimore, despite signing Alonso, still has a ton of payroll room to maneuver. They hold a $140 million payroll pre-arbitration and are still under $200 million when factored in. Their rotation is the next order of business, which had a disastrous performance in 2025. If they can move Ryan Mountcastle during the offseason, they can afford Valdez, who they’ve been repeatedly connected to.
The Mets also need a premier pitcher, but they could aim for something cheaper, which appears to be their motto this offseason. Given his high price tag, it could price out other teams like the Giants and Phillies, giving the aforementioned Mets and Orioles a clear path.
Prediction: Orioles on a six-year, $190 million deal with benchmarks
Whoever comes up second in the Valdez sweepstakes will win the rights to Suarez. He’s coming off a strong season with Philadelphia, though he missed out on his second all-star appearance. Do not expect the Orioles to target him if they win Valdez.
In this scenario, the Mets win Suarez with relative ease despite some push from the Houston Astros and Chicago Cubs. Houston likely wants to immediately bring in someone to fill the void, while Chicago needs another starter. There will be some push by these teams, but New York’s desperation will drive them to get Suarez no matter what the cost is.
Prediction: Mets on a five-year, $170 million deal with a potential year-six option.
Tatsuya Imai: Cubs on a six-year, $160 million deal
Zac Gallen: Giants on a four-year, $65 million deal
Michael King: Yankees on a two-year, $20 million deal
Lucas Giolito: Braves on a three-year, $50 million deal
There is a lot of offseason to churn through, so any of these projections could be way off when they’re finally signed. Still, the free agency market is alive and well with a lot of players to go either back to their teams or elsewhere. Either way, it will be a very exciting period of time, despite it being cold outside and with football at the forefront of the sports world.
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