This Saturday, in the main event of UFC Vegas 106, the No. 8-ranked welterweight contender Gilbert “Durinho” Burns will face off against the No. 12-ranked up-and-comer Michael Morales. Burns is a former title challenger and a long-time staple on the division’s top 10. At the same time, Morales is looking to step into the UFC Octagon only for the sixth time on May 17 (seventh if counting his DWCS showing).
The Ecuadorian fighter comes in as a huge favorite in this bout, as he opened at -850, while Burns was sitting at +570. It almost seems disrespectful towards the veteran in Burns, who has 22 promotional bouts under his belt.
It is a usual thing for the younger guy to be a favorite in a prospect vs veteran matchup, but the numbers in this particular instance are downright ridiculous. In his last three losses, “Durinho” faced Belal Muhammad, Jack Della Maddalena, and Sean Brady: a former champion, the current champion, and the No. 1 contender.
Although Burns has proclaimed himself as the gatekeeper of the division, it doesn’t mean he is ready to give up the spot to the youngster. The gatekeeper’s job is to keep the gate closed at the end of the day.
“Durinho” still carries the switch-flipping power he carried throughout his entire welterweight run. It is fair to say he doesn’t have the same explosiveness he once had, but his experience and elite grappling skills could prove to be enough to beat Morales.
Morales has high-level boxing skills and a reliable wrestling base to sprawl and continue brawling. At the same time, the 25-year-old doesn’t have the experience that Burns’s previous opponents had.
Morales is the more active striker, as he on average lands 5.42 significant strikes per minute, compared to Burns’s 3.17, with their accuracy being the same at 48%. In a clean kickboxing bout, he is going to have a massive advantage. If the Brazilian makes the fight viscous and grindy, preferably with a lot of clinching, he will have the ability to pull off the upset. The Ecuadorian’s takedown defence is at 92%, yet he was never faced with repeated takedown attempts inside a single UFC fight.
Considering 2025 has been the year of up-and-comers losing their ‘0’ in big upsets, wouldn’t it be natural for Morales to join this club too?
That is definitely not to say Morales isn’t legit or can’t get the victory come Saturday, matter of fact, I see him winning on points here. By doing so, he would differentiate himself from the other prospects and get into that stacked welterweight title discussion.
Burns is being massively underestimated by the bookies, and it seems absurd to me. The man gave both Khamzat Chimaev and Kamaru Usman wars, and he had more success in grappling against Maddalena than Muhammad in his latest effort.
You can tell me Morales is the next big thing. You can tell me Burns is out of his prime. But you can never tell me “Durinho” doesn’t have a chance.
Image credit: Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC
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