A little over a week ago, the Miami Heat saw their season end with a 138-83 loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Heat were never expected to beat the number-one seed in the Eastern Conference, but to lose by 55 and not show any fight in the last game of the season was flat-out embarrassing.
This organization made the finals in 2019-2020 and 2022-2023, as well as the Eastern Conference Finals in 2021-2022. The Heat expect to win big, but they appear to be trending in the wrong direction, and they need to figure out how to change that this summer.
The Heat’s roster will certainly see some sort of shake-up this summer via trade, but they have multiple in-house decisions they have to make.
Davion Mitchell had a career resurgence after coming over in the Jimmy Butler trade. He averaged 10 points and 5 assists per game during the regular season for the Heat, and 15 points and 6 assists in the playoffs. He also shot 44.7% from three during the regular season and 50% during the playoffs, both of which are career highs by a large margin. He was a perfect fit for the Heat, and they were perfect for him, and it would be a shock if Miami didn’t choose to retain him this off-season.
Mitchell will be a restricted free agent over the summer, which will allow the Heat to match any offer that he receives. Considering how impactful he was on both ends of the court after arriving in Miami, the Heat should match just about any reasonable offer that Mitchell receives. He is just 26 years old, and he fits their play style perfectly.
The decision regarding Davion Mitchell’s future with the team is a pretty easy one, but the same can’t be said for Duncan Robinson. Of his $19,888,000 salary next year, only $9,888,000 of it is guaranteed. Given the Heat’s current salary cap situation, it would be a surprise if they decided to retain Robinson. He has been one of the best shooters in the league since he entered, but he is a liability on defense and not consistent enough to make up for it.
The Heat will need to make a decision on one of their longest-tenured players, and it seems likely that he will not be on the roster next season. If they do decide to keep Robinson, he will be a valuable expiring contract for any team looking to clear future money.
Outside of Mitchell and the two-way players, the only other free agent for the Heat is Alec Burks. He likely won’t cost more than the minimum, and if the Heat want him back, he should be back. He is a strong shooter who can create for himself as well and plug and play whenever the Heat need him.
The other notable contract decisions that the Heat have to make are long-term extensions. Nikola Jovic and Tyler Herro are eligible for extensions, and it will be interesting to see how Miami handles them. The former feels likely to get an extension as he has improved every season since being drafted in the first round of the 2022 draft.
At 6’10, Jovic is a Swiss Army knife on offense with his playmaking, ball-handling, and floor-space ability. He has been inconsistent sometimes, but has also been a major contributor. His skill set is extremely unique and could only get better as he gains experience. He shouldn’t be too expensive for the Heat, and if they don’t include him in a trade, he should be a big part of the future.
Herro is the more fascinating decision for the Heat, considering the financial commitment they would have to make to him. He has developed into a three-level scoring threat, as well as a good secondary playmaker, but he is a liability on the defensive end. In the first round of the playoffs, a large part of the Cavaliers’ game plan was to attack Herro and put him in action. Unsurprisingly, the Cavs went at Herro, but he wasn’t good enough on the offensive end to make up for the defensive issues.
If Miami can add another perimeter shot creator to take pressure off of him, it could open things up for him, but that is easier said than done.
The Heat need to decide if they can win with Herro as one of their highest-paid players and lead scorers. If they do, they will likely pay him, but if they don’t, the trading him.
In 2021, the Heat were swept in embarrassing fashion by the Bucks. They became aggressive in the off-season with the additions of Kyle Lowry and P.J. Tucker, two major contributors to their run to the Eastern Conference finals the following year. Given how things went this season, it should be expected that the Heat will be aggressive this off-season, as they typically do not settle for mediocrity.
Everyone expects Giannis Antetokounmpo to be a potential trade candidate this offseason, but that feels unlikely. Even if he is, the Heat don’t have the assets that other teams do to make a competitive offer. The players who could make sense for the Heat for a variety of reasons are Kevin Durant, Trae Young, Ja Morant, Lauri Markkanen, and Zion Williamson.
Of that group, Durant and Young feel like the most likely, given the current situations of their teams and overall value. The former is still an elite talent, but he is older and is expecting an extension. The latter is younger, but his team is stuck in no man’s land, and they need to shake things up. The Heat can put together packages with expiring contracts, young players, picks, and a proven veteran in Andrew Wiggins. It isn’t the best package, but it offers financial flexibility, draft capital, young players on controllable contracts, and a very movable contract in Wiggins.
Of the other three names, Morant and Markkanen don’t seem likely, but Williamson is a very interesting idea. He has all of the talent in the world, but he has not been able to stay on the court. In Miami, they would make sure his conditioning is up to par, and they would ideally be able to get the most out of him. The fit next to Bam Adebayo and Kel’el Ware would be odd, and it could lead to another trade, but the talent of Williamson is too good to ignore if the price is right.
There is a world where the Heat makes a move or moves that no one saw coming after the way the season ended, but regardless, they need to make substantial changes to the roster if they want to be contenders.
One of the few bright spots for the Heat this season was the play of their rookies. Both Kel’el Ware and Pelle Larsson made major impacts this season, especially the former. They both showed that they should be long-term factors for the Heat. The Heat will get another chance to add to their young core of Ware, Larsson, Nikola Jovic, Jaime Jaquez Jr., and Keshad Johnson this summer with the 20th pick in the draft.
Players who Miami could target are Carter Bryant, Liam McNeeley, Nique Clifford, and Egor Demin, along with others. Miami should add the best player available, but they should ideally target either a 3-and-D wing or a playmaking guard.
They have yet to add a true playmaker in the backcourt that can set players up for easy shots, and Demin is the best passer in the class. The rest of his offense is a work in progress, but his court vision at 6’9 can’t be taught. Both Bryant and McNeeley would offer shooting and the ability to switch on the defensive end of the court. As for Clifford, he can do a bit of everything on offense, but he is a great rebounder and a versatile defender. All four players would fill massive holes for the Heat, but it is not guaranteed that any of them are on the board.
There are a few things the Heat need to do this summer. Bring back Davion Mitchell. Add a 2-way difference maker to take pressure off both Herro and Bam. Find a playmaker and or 3-and-D wing in the draft. But most importantly, they have to choose a direction, because what everyone saw this past season was not good enough.
No move will be surprising this summer, given the organization’s history, but they need to have a plan in place to get this team back on track, and that is why this is a make-or-break summer.
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