Argentina vs England is set for the World Cup semifinal in Atlanta, and the team getting there has needed a last-gasp moment in every single knockout match to survive. Forward Lionel Messi called the run “not normal” after Saturday’s win over Switzerland. The data backs him up, and so does his own manager.
Argentina cruised through the group stage with a perfect record — wins over Algeria, Austria, and Jordan. The knockout rounds have been an entirely different story. The round of 32 needed extra time to see off Cabo Verde. The round of 16 against Egypt was worse: Argentina trailed 2-0 with roughly eleven minutes of regulation left before Cristian Romero, Messi, and Enzo Fernández scored in the final minutes to win 3-2.
Saturday’s quarterfinal against Switzerland followed the same script. Alexis Mac Allister’s early goal was canceled out in the 67th minute, and Argentina spent almost fifty minutes trying to break down ten men after a Swiss red card before Julián Álvarez finally scored from distance in the 112th minute. By the numbers, it was a deserved win — Argentina’s expected-goals tally finished at 2.0 against Switzerland’s 0.53 — but the scoreline had stayed level long enough that it never felt safe.
Manager Lionel Scaloni was direct after the final whistle about how much his team has changed since lifting the trophy in Qatar. Comparing this group’s composure under pressure to four years ago, he said “the team keeps calm and keeps fighting, and that’s something we didn’t have before.” It’s a notable admission from a coach whose team has now needed a fight in every single knockout match this tournament, and still hasn’t lost one.
That resilience matters heading into England, a team built around its own knockout-stage composure this summer under manager Thomas Tuchel, with midfielder Jude Bellingham matching Messi goal for goal as the player carrying his country through must-win moments.
At 39, Messi has eight goals at this World Cup, the most of any player entering the semifinals, and opened the tournament with the first World Cup hat trick of his career. His goal against Cabo Verde in the round of 32 made him the all-time leading World Cup goalscorer in history and the first player ever to score in eight consecutive World Cup matches. He also now holds the record for most World Cup appearances by any player, at 30.
Argentina is riding a 12-match unbeaten run at the World Cup, and this is the first time since FIFA rankings began in 1992 that all four top-ranked teams in the world — Argentina, England, France, and Spain — have reached the same semifinal round.
England won’t be facing a flawless opponent, but their own knockout run has a wrinkle worth noting. They trailed in all three of their knockout matches — DR Congo scored first in the round of 32, Mexico led twice in the round of 16, and Norway went ahead in the quarterfinal — and have conceded four goals across those three games. Argentina, by contrast, has scored nine goals in the same three knockout rounds.
Both teams have found a way to win regardless, but Argentina’s attack has had to work considerably less hard for its goals than England’s defense has had to work for its clean moments.
Three knockout matches, three separate moments in the final half hour or extra time that decided each one, and a 39-year-old leading the tournament in goals while setting career scoring and appearance records along the way. That’s the case for “not normal” in numbers rather than just a quote.
Argentina now needs two more wins for back-to-back World Cup titles, starting with the semifinal against England on Wednesday, July 15, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.
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