The Klay Thompson Miami Heat fit could be a match that completely alters the NBA’s Eastern Conference. Following a season filled with questionable floor spacing, the Heat are expected to sign the sharpshooter to a 2-year, $13 million contract.
The Thompson deal not only brings the 3-point sniper to South Beach but also gives Miami some financial flexibility. This is an attempt by the Heat to make a push towards the NBA Finals, which they haven’t won since 2013, but will it pay off?
Here’s how Thompson fits Miami and helps the Heat aim for the NBA Finals.
Thompson has seen a decline in offensive production recently, with his points per game numbers decreasing over the past three years, but his shooting skill set remains intact. While attempting 7.6 three-pointers a game, he is knocking down 38.3% of them. Overall, he has a true shooting of 53.7% on shots from catch-and-shoot and spot-up attempts.
This is exactly the player that Miami needed. Once the Heat traded for Giannis Antetokounmpo, their spacing was doubted, as he isn’t known for his shooting ability. Last season, 61% of his shot attempts came right at the rim, and he only attempted 45 threes.
The same goes for Bam Adebayo. Though he has grown as a long-range shooter, making 31.8% on 400 attempts last season, he is much more efficient near the rim. His field goal percentage from close shots was above league average at 60.5%.
With a Miami frontcourt of two limited shooters, the Heat needed to add Thompson for floor spacing. He is tied for 10th in Shot Quality RAPM (Regularized Adjusted Plus Minus), as his spacing and gravity improve his team’s shot quality by +1.1 over expected value.
The attention that Thompson garners from defenders will help Antetokounmpo and Adebayo greatly. When Thompson is in the corner, the defense will have a tough choice to make. Do the defensive players help on Antetokounmpo and Adebayo when they’re driving to the basket or leave the 40.5% from the corner shooter open?
Antetokounmpo, especially, utilizes the drive-and-kick playstyle. He is a dominant ball handler, being on-ball 32.8% of the time last season, and bulldozes his way to the basket to finish at the rim. If teams decide to build a wall to stop his drive attempts, then he will be able to connect with Thompson for uncontested three-point shots often.
For the last eight seasons, Antetokounmpo has averaged more than five assists per game, but has missed out on over 15 potential assists per 100 possessions during that time span. By playing with Thompson next season, he may see a jump in assists as his passes will be going to one of the best shooters in NBA history.
Miami could have a synergistic offensive starting lineup. A starting five of Davion Mitchell, Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, Antetokounmpo, and Adebayo could function cohesively.
Wiggins adds some floor spacing abilities with his shot creation and rim pressure. Mitchell brings playmaking, limited shooting, and the ability to finish at the basket efficiently.
Incorporating Thompson’s shooting in the starting lineup could improve it offensively by pulling defenders away from the rim. Would playing a 36-year-old guard, however, hurt the Heat on the defensive end?
Due to Thompson’s age, along with a lengthy injury history, his perimeter defense has taken a dip. Though he may not be able to chase and defend explosive athletic guards like he used to, he won’t be a cone on defense.
Back in the 2022 NBA Finals, Thompson showcased his defensive ability after tearing his Achilles tendon in 2019 and his ACL (Anterior Cruciate Ligament) in 2020. He took on the tough task of guarding Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. Though his lateral movement didn’t look the same as in his peak physical years, he was able to contribute defensively towards the Golden State Warriors’ championship win.
Thompson’s defensive performance was from four years ago, but he may be able to replicate that effort next season. Even if he doesn’t get back to his top perimeter defender days, he might not have to because of the players around him.
Antetokounmpo and Adebayo make up one of the best defensive frontcourts. Antetokounmpo’s combination of size and speed makes him one of the league’s best defenders. Specifically, he is a great help defender, as his length allows him to cut off passing lanes and contest shots near the rim.
Meanwhile, Adebayo is one of the best defensive centers in the league. His size and strength help him defend against other centers in the paint. The skill that makes him unique is his mobility, which allows him to switch onto guards and defend along the perimeter.
Antetokounmpo and Adebayo will be able to help Thompson defensively. Using their skill set, they can act as a last line of defense and even deter players from driving into the paint.
In addition to the frontcourt, Miami has talented defenders in the backcourt. Mitchell is a tough perimeter defender who can pressure ball handlers and force them off the ball. He also forces players to take tough shots, influencing a decrease in shot quality by -0.5.
Wiggins adds similar defensive help to Mitchell. He can attack ball handlers, cut off driving lanes, and force poor shot attempts. With his size and frame, he can keep up with quicker guards and contest shots against strong forwards.
With Mitchell and Wiggins providing flexibility, Thompson won’t have to take on the toughest defensive assignments. The Heat could have him defend the weakest offensive threat or defend a player sitting in the corner. Either way, Thompson’s age and athleticism are unlikely to heavily affect Miami’s defense.
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The Heat acquiring Thompson is a good move to compete in the East. He was a necessary addition to the offense to fill the role of a floor spacer to allow Antetokounmpo room to pressure the basket. He may not provide the same production as his former Warrior days, but he is more than capable of providing offensive assistance as a knockdown three-point shooter.
The NBA’s Eastern Conference has been heating up this offseason, and with this deal, South Beach could be headed back to contention.
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