Coming off a career year, Jamal Murray might find himself in the midst of trade talks. He had his best year as a starter, as he was named an All-Star starter and will be on All-NBA ballots. Seeing how his season ended, though, it might be time to reevaluate some things.
The label that Murray was given throughout his career was that he was a playoff riser. The perception originated when he averaged 26.5 points, 6.6 assists, and 4.8 rebounds on 50.5% from the court and a scorching 45.4% from deep over 19 games in the 2020 bubble playoffs. His play was so spectacular that it earned him the nickname Bubble Murray.
An unfortunate ACL injury sidelined Murray for the 2021 and 2022 playoffs. Many thought that he would never be the same player if and when he came back. When he did, though, he picked up right where he left off in the 2023 postseason.
In 20 postseason games, Murray averaged 26.1 points, 7.1 assists, and 5.7 rebounds on 47.5% shooting overall and nearly 40% from three. The numbers looked identical to what they were in the bubble, and people believed this was just who he was: A playoff riser.
That, however, has not been the case since the 2023 championship run. The Denver Nuggets have played five playoff series since that time, and Murray has not been close to what people expected of him.
In the 2024 first round against the Los Angeles Lakers, Murray averaged 23.6 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 7.6 assists on 40% shooting and 29.41% from three. The efficiency was not there, but his two-game winners overshadowed the fact that he wasn’t very good. The next series was his low point against the Minnesota Timberwolves, where he averaged 18.43 points, 4.14 rebounds, and 4.43 assists on 40% shooting again and 33% from three.
Everyone is allowed to have a bad playoff run, so at this point, there was no panic in Denver. The Nuggets were defending champs, and it’s possible the team rested on its laurels a little bit. The trend, unfortunately, continued into the 2025 post-season.
In that postseason, Murray averaged 21.8 points, 5.2 assists, and 7.9 rebounds on 44.4% shooting overall and 35% from three over 14 games. Once again, the poor efficiency is what’s alarming. Could it be that teams have figured him out?
It sure seems like Minnesota has, because the 2025 postseason may have been Murray’s worst in terms of efficiency. In just six games, he averaged 23.7 points, five rebounds, and 5.67 assists on a measly 35.66% shooting from the floor overall and 26.19% from three.
Yes, Denver played some good defenses in that span. They faced the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Wolves twice. Both teams can swarm you with wing defenders, but that’s what Murray is supposed to overcome. He’s the second-best player on the team, and he was completely erased in this most recent game.
The results shown above may not be all on Murray. It might also be a systematic formula with the Nuggets as a whole. What was once an unstoppable two-man game between Nikola Jokic and Murray was completely erased by the Timberwolves.
There’s no guarantee that Denver will give up on the two-man game. If they do, however, they have to give up one of the two in the duo, and it’s not going to be Jokic.
The issue with the Murray and Jokic pick-and-roll is that it is very dependent on Aaron Gordon. With him looming at the dunker spot, teams have to guard the pick and roll honestly. Gordon’s inability to stay on the floor, though, has allowed teams to be more aggressive on the two-man action and stifle the Nuggets’ bread and butter.
The numbers are very telling. In the past regular season, Denver had an offensive rating of 124.7 with Gordon, which led the league. Without him its 119.3, which isn’t bad, but with how poor the defense is, the offense needs to be transcendent.
It just wouldn’t be wise anymore to hope that the next playoff run is when Gordon is going to be healthier. He is 30 years old and will be 31 by the 2027 postseason.
Another issue is that teams are attacking Murray on the defensive end. In Game Six, Minnesota ran a play that had their ball handler go right at Murray, and multiple times it ended with an and-one down the stretch. That, in turn, wore him down offensively and likely led to his 4/17 shooting night in a close-out game. If he’s not great offensively, he becomes a liability because of defensive deficiencies.
It feels weird to say that Murray might be gone after his best season ever, but it seems very possible. His lack of recent playoff success has been eye-opening and has led to some people speculating on what the team should do with him.
A huge shoutout goes out to Adam Mares and the DNVR crew for pointing out the Murray playoff trend. It was their initial observation that allowed me to dig deeper into the numbers and understand where they were coming from, so lots of credit to them.
Going back to Murray, it will be a bittersweet moment letting him go, but it might be the right thing to do.
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