Okay, who ya got in the Big 10 tournament this week?
The 27th rendition of that conference championship begins Wednesday in Indianapolis, and this year is far different from previous events. Because the Big 10 expanded to 18 teams, the tournament now fields the top 15 teams in the league for a five-day extravaganza.
It is true that all schools with a chair at the final table technically have a chance to cut down the nets. All it takes is a magical run of upsets for an underdog to shock the college basketball landscape and make history. While the 8th-seeded Michigan squad that took down the 2017 tournament boasts the highest seed to win, three double-digit seeds have reached the final before midnight struck their fairy tale down.
This season, writers, experts, and oddsmakers close to the Big 10’s movements have given their impressions on who they expect to emerge victorious late Sunday afternoon.
While gambling is not an exact science, the opulent casinos and hotels built in Las Vegas are not the result of the house losing money. In other words, the sharps in the desert bank on the public being wrong more than not.
FanDuel Sportsbook released their odds Sunday for who they believe to be the teams to beat in Indy. If that is any indication, they are implying that this is a championship that will most likely be won by only one of the top eight schools. Here are their predictions based on a $100 bet for each team:
- Michigan State: +260
- Maryland: +480
- Illinois: +650
- UCLA: +650
- Wisconsin: +700
- Purdue: +700
- Michigan: +1100
- Oregon: +1800
- Ohio State: +4000
- Indiana: +5500
- USC: +15000
- Minnesota: +25000
- Northwestern: +25000
- Iowa: +25000
Oregon is the eighth best bet at +1800, which is a long shot by any interpretation of that term. After the Ducks, however, the odds more than double for Ohio State’s chances at +4000, and the predictions for the rest of the list grow more bleak.
One interesting note from this list is what FanDuel feels about Illinois’ prospects, as they completed 2025 as the Big 10’s seventh-place finisher. The sportsbook believes they have more than a puncher’s chance to win it all by giving them the third-best championship probability.
This instinct is not relegated to FanDuel, as others in the know feel Illinois could make some noise.
In his article at si.com, betting expert Reed Wallach identified head coach Brad Underwood’s Illinois squad as his dark horse in Indianapolis.
“Despite a poor shooting outfit, the team remains a top 20 offense behind its elite frontcourt that dominates on the glass and the team’s up-tempo style,” Wallach writes. “If the Fighting Illini can shoot even halfway decent from the perimeter, they may be incredibly tough to slow down with elite length across the roster and an ability to dominate the shot volume battle.”
Wallach, however, chose another conference school as his best bet to win it all, and it is not top-seeded Michigan State.
He said: “The Spartans are bottom 20 in the country in 3-point percentage and top five in the nation in 3-point defense. The team can’t hit a shot from the perimeter, but the opponents are even worse!
“I think that eventually catches up with them in the Big 10 Tournament, and I’ll take Wisconsin to be the team that goes the distance after reinventing its roster around John Tonje after last year’s Big 10 Championship Game appearance.”
Kevin Sweeney, a colleague of Wallach’s at si.com who is a college basketball staff writer for the outlet, disagrees and is risking his stack on Sparty.
“It’s easy to poke holes in Michigan State on paper, with its lack of 3-point shooting or superstar talent,” explained Sweeney. “On the court though, nobody has proven to be the Spartans’ match in the Big 10 this season.
“The Spartans are the hottest team in the league, entering the postseason on a seven-game winning streak that lifted MSU to the Big 10 regular season crown by a whopping three games. They’ve done it in different ways against different foes, dominating the rim against Purdue, crushing Maryland on the glass and finally breaking through from deep against Michigan.
“This is a special team playing its best basketball at the right time, and they’ve already proven over the last month that they’re better than the rest of the league’s top tier.”
Purdue, who as of less than a month ago stood atop the Big 10 standings, is this week’s 6th-seed. The Boilermakers have beaten all of the teams ahead of them except for Michigan State, and that success could help Purdue get on a hot streak.
Sam King, who covers the Boilermakers for the Lafayette Journal and Courier, does not outright predict Purdue to win the tournament, he does expect them to make some noise.
“The Boilers can make amends for some questionable setbacks if they can do damage in the Big 10 Tournament,” said King. “I fully expect Purdue to be playing in Friday’s quarterfinals. It’s a better team than both Rutgers and USC, who’ll be entering on about 22 hours rest.
“From there, it’s a crap shoot. Purdue outplayed Michigan twice (but came away with only series split), which would be the Friday opponent should the Boilermakers get through their first matchup. Should Purdue be in the semifinal, it will face a team for the second time this season, whether it be Iowa (unlikely), Ohio State, Illinois or Maryland. This is where not earning the double bye as a top four seed could be a hindrance. I like Purdue getting to the semifinals but the latter three teams all pose some mismatches that make it tough on the Boilermakers.”
If nothing else, the Big 10 proved that nothing is a sure thing. Take the league’s final week into consideration: It was not until the completion of the final game of the conference schedule when all seeds were cemented. Purdue and Wisconsin both had chances to secure a double-bye in the tournament with victories in their last games. Both the Boilermakers and the Badgers coughed up that opportunity, and they will be forced to play a day earlier than they hoped.
With all the ups and downs the Big 10 fashioned this season, this writer’s pick to click for the latest renewal of their conference tournament is Michigan State. They have been too consistent this year to feel otherwise, and Tom Izzo knows how to win in March. Look for Sparty and Purdue to tangle on Sunday, with Izzo’s guys gutting out a tight W to put themselves in position for a 1-seed in the NCAA tournament.
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