The Wild Card round waited until the season’s final day to be set, and the Denver Broncos locked up the seventh seed. They will travel to take on the two-seed Buffalo Bills. Can the Broncos’ defense slow down the explosive Buffalo offense, or will Bills’ quarterback Josh Allen prove to be too steep a test for Denver rookie quarterback, Bo Nix?
The Broncos have shortened their timelines, thanks in large to a great defense and a respectable debut season from rookie quarterback Bo Nix. They secured their position on the last day of the season, with a 38-0 blowout of the B-squad Kansas City Chiefs. The defense will look to regain their early season form, allowing 30 or more points in three of the four games before taking on the Chiefs’ backups. At the end of November, the Broncos had an average scoring margin of +13.3, but they have seen that slip to +4.8 before the final week blowout. Denver must play its best on both sides of the ball to hang with Buffalo.
The Bills had the luxury of resting some of their starters in the final week, having already secured the two-seed in the AFC. The Bills boast the second-ranked scoring offense, averaging 30.9 ppg. The defense has been the one point of concern this season, however, if you combine a respectable 12th-ranked scoring defense with their explosive offense, they have a comfortable average scoring margin of +10.3 in games where Allen played. The offense has proven efficient and consistent, so Buffalo will look for their defense to play well to go on a deep playoff run.
Bodog opened the books by making the Bills a -8.5 point favorite at home. The two have not played since November of last season when the Broncos pulled it out 24-22 in Buffalo. The Bills are rightfully favored, but Denver certainly has a chance to cover if they play well.
The Broncos have the third-ranked scoring defense this season at 18.3 ppg against. If you compare the team’s average scoring margin over the complete season, the Bills are only +2.5 compared to Denver. The Broncos have shown flashes on offense, but their floor is much lower. This game should come down to which defense shows up for Denver, and can Allen take care of the ball for Buffalo?
If Denver can pull off the upset in the Wild Card, they would have the mighty task of traveling to Kansas City to defeat the two-time defending Super Bowl champions, the one-seed team fresh off a bye, the ever-dangerous Chiefs. The Bills will look to win this game to take on the lowest remaining AFC seed at home in the next round.
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