Draft season feels like year-round, with all sports schedules lining up, with the WNBA and NFL recently holding theirs. These events are undoubtedly popular. For instance, 7.5 million people tuned in to watch the latest batch of players be selected for the NFL. Here are some points to keep in mind as draft season continues.
Many fans believe that every selected player will have a successful career. However, checking the list of draftees for any past year shows that many players never see any meaningful playing time. Even fewer go on to be starters or All-Stars. When Anthony Bennett was drafted by the Cavaliers in 2013, he was interviewed afterward by Shane Battier. One of Battier’s lines was: “Jabbar. Magic. LeBron. Bennett. How does that sound?”
As Battier’s quote demonstrates, teams never know what they will get when selecting players. Yes, there is a chance that they will pick the next LeBron James, but they could also be getting the next Anthony Bennett, who ended up being a huge bust in the NBA.
It is not difficult to find stories of players who failed to live up to expectations. Many of them were star players in college, but having a successful college career does not guarantee a successful professional career. Knowing how a player will perform at the next level is impossible until they actually get there.
Much attention is paid to the top picks in drafts. Being selected number one in particular is a badge of honor, but great players aren’t always picked first. Michael Jordan, for instance, was only selected third overall. The number two pick that year was Sam Bowie, who had an unremarkable career and is best known today for being chosen ahead of Michael Jordan.
Many top prospects tend to be selected in the first rounds of drafts. As a result, later rounds don’t usually receive as much attention, even though evidence suggests that they should. For the NFL, studies have indicated that players selected in the second round have more value than players chosen in the first round.
Great players can also be selected in later rounds. Tom Brady was chosen in the sixth round, with six quarterbacks being picked before him. Even players selected last in the NFL Draft (who are bestowed the title of Mr. Irrelevant) have gone on to have solid careers. For example, Brock Purdy has made the Pro Bowl, and Ryan Succop won a Super Bowl with the Buccaneers.
Players from big-name schools tend to get the most attention, as they participate in more high-profile games. Due to this big-name bias, players from smaller programs are often ignored. Going to a smaller school doesn’t mean that a player can’t be successful, however. Fred VanVleet, who attended Wichita State, went undrafted but ended up becoming a key player for the Raptors and helping the team earn its first-ever NBA championship.
International players are also often overlooked, as they aren’t as well-known. There is plenty of talent to be found overseas, however. The Spurs built a dynasty with key players such as Manu Ginobili (Argentina) and Tony Parker (France).
When Kristaps Porzingis was drafted by the Knicks in 2015, he was booed by the Knicks fans in attendance. Stephen A. Smith unleashed an epic rant about the decision, naming several other players he thought should have been picked. Ten years later, Porzingis is an All-Star and NBA champion, while none of the players that Smith named as being better picks are in the NBA.
Why do people love drafts? One reason is that they are a source of hope. Fans of struggling teams, in particular, can dream that they are witnessing the selection of the next star player. While it isn’t bad to hope, it is also important to be realistic.
Drafts can and should be fun, but aren’t as definitive as some people make them seem. There is no point in spending too much time worrying that one’s team made the wrong decisions. No one – the fans, the pundits on TV, or even the teams making selections – knows what will happen.
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