The biggest star in the history of MMA (Mixed Martial Arts), Conor McGregor, makes his long-awaited return to the octagon to rematch Max Holloway at UFC 329. The last time these two fighters faced off, McGregor walked away victorious, but that was 13 years ago.
As of late, McGregor has been sidelined due to a devastating leg injury that has kept him away from the UFC for five years. Meanwhile, Holloway has set foot in the octagon nine times in that same span, winning six of those fights.
Though he has been absent from competition, McGregor will still be a dangerous opponent for Holloway. The UFC has been plagued by upsets recently, and if Conor can achieve these three scenarios, he could earn the biggest shocker of the year.
Many fighters have their own signature strikes that can change a fight in an instant. Alex Pereira has his left hook, Mirko Cro Cop had his left high kick, and Chuck Liddell had his overhand right. But for McGregor, his signature straight left has slowed his opponents down and ended many fights.
In their first bout, McGregor landed 34 significant head strikes, largely due to his ability to use his left hand. He used body kicks to keep Holloway at bay, then countered with his left hand when Max attempted to close the distance.
Though he didn’t finish Holloway in their first fight, which ended in a unanimous decision, McGregor’s left hand has knocked out multiple top contenders. Jose Aldo, Chad Mendes, Eddie Alvarez, and Dustin Poirier were all finished by sharp left-hand punches.
Throughout his UFC career, Conor averages 1.73 knockdowns per 15 minutes. Along with his power comes great accuracy, as he lands 50% of his significant strikes, resulting in 5.32 strikes landed per minute.
Holloway, known for his granite chin, has seen a decrease in his ability to absorb damage over the years. After never hitting the canvas in 29 straight UFC appearances, Max has been knocked down twice in his last three fights, including a knockout loss against Ilia Topuria.
This fight will also be Holloway’s first in the Welterweight division, whereas McGregor has fought in the weight class three times.
With Holloway never fighting at this weight and his chin potentially deteriorating, a flush left hand from a 170-pound McGregor could lead to an early finish.
Historically, McGregor is much better when he pressures his opponent back against the cage and directs the flow of the fight. But, after the leg injury, his mobility to stay in front of his opponent is in question.
In 2021, McGregor broke his tibia and fibula, which would destroy his ability to move laterally and maintain stability. Though he may not have his typical fluid movement, he still may be able to use his hands to disguise pressure.
At his peak, McGregor would use feints to gain control of the octagon and overwhelm his opponents. He showcased this in his bout against Alvarez at UFC 205, where Eddie would overreact to movement by lunging backwards and moving along the cage.
Even in the second fight against Poirier, McGregor performed better in the first round when he managed the fight’s flow and pushed forward.
However, this won’t be a simple task. Holloway has displayed his striking skills by overpowering his opposition with volume, breaking them slowly over time. But, if his recent fights are to be taken into account, then Max could be the one submerged in pressure.
In two of his last three fights, Holloway was pushed on his back foot while his opponents progressed forward, throwing powerful strikes. In the bout against Topuria, Max held him off for a while, but Ilia kept inching forward and eventually landed the punches that would end the fight.
Meanwhile, Charles Olivera simply charged towards Holloway, initiating grappling exchanges. In that fight, Oliveria completed five takedowns with a control time of over 20 minutes, en route to a unanimous decision victory.
In those two fights, Max absorbed 125 significant strikes. Over his career, he has absorbed 4.61 significant strikes per minute.
With Holloway’s recent struggles against pressure, McGregor should look to advance thoroughly to fluster him and land counterpunches.
In his last three fights, McGregor has only landed ten significant strikes to the body. Throughout his career, only 17% of his total significant strikes have been towards his opponent’s body.
For McGregor to find success against Holloway, he will need to attack the body much more. Though Max will be fighting at a heavier weight, he is recognized as having one of the best gas tanks in UFC history.
Thus far, Holloway has fought a full five-round fight ten times in the UFC.
Draining Holloway’s stamina should be a top priority for McGregor, and with this being a five-round bout, it will be improper for him to simply go head-hunting.
Max seemingly gets better the longer the fights go on. Therefore, by attacking the body early, McGregor could be making an investment that could pay off in the later rounds.
Also, by going after the body, McGregor could force Holloway to drop his guard. After lowering his opponent’s defenses, Conor could land a devastating blow that either alters the fight or ends it.
The fight this weekend will be a tall hill to climb for McGregor. After suffering two back-to-back defeats to Poirier and being sidetracked by injury, he may be at the lowest point ever in his professional career.
It would take a miraculous performance for McGregor to walk out victorious, but he has done it before. He knocked out Aldo in 13 seconds at UFC 194, when he was a top pound-for-pound fighter.
If he could put all of these strategies to use, McGregor could continue the trend of upsets and look to put on more highly anticipated fights in the future.
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