Fantasy players who took San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey might be worried after his pedestrian week one performance in Australia against the Los Angeles Rams. McCaffrey, who ran 10 times for 68 yards and caught five passes for 20 yards, ceded significant ground to third-round rookie Kaelon Black in the backfield. In fact, Black had more touches on run plays than McCaffrey did.
McCaffrey was a mid first-round pick for many teams holding the sixth or seventh pick, and many expect him to perform at his 2023 or 2025 levels after they missed out on Jahmyr Gibbs or Bijan Robinson. If history is the best teacher and age catches up with everyone, though, fantasy teams might want backup plans in place. It’s not time to hit the panic button, but fantasy teams with McCaffrey are due to make moves this week.
If there’s one thing running backs hate facing during their careers, it’s time itself and how their bodies age alongside it. Christian McCaffrey, as good as he was a few years ago and as productive as he can be, isn’t an exception to time and injury.
Most people forget that, behind the points and sometimes game-breaking stats McCaffrey can give a fantasy team in any given week, he does have a notable injury history that is shortening his career. The 30-year-old has missed several games over his career due to lower-body injuries, including double Achilles tendinitis in 2024. In 2020, he suffered three different injuries, including two lower-body ones; In 2021, he missed 10 games due to a hamstring and ankle sprain.
Injuries are the grim reapers of any football player’s career, regardless of position or age, and they can take out the best of the best. Terrell Davis was poised to be one of the greatest running backs in NFL history after his 1998 superstar season. He was out of the league in three years due to significant and repeated leg injuries. Knee tendinitis from a college injury slowed down Todd Gurley to the point where he couldn’t accelerate out of the backfield anymore.
It’s also important to note that taking a running back over 30 is risky, as their value collapses in favor of backs aged 26 and younger. The Northwestern Sports Analytics Group at Northwestern University found that most elite running backs between 2006 and 2016 fell off by age 30, with some extending to 32. Even Derrick Henry, who still finished as an RB7 in half-PPR leagues in 2025, is beginning to face his age.
McCaffrey is right at that age, and chances are that San Francisco is looking at his injury history with a jaundiced eye. Given all that, the team might either manage his workload through the inevitable decline or move to get rid of him at the deadline, since he has only one year left on his contract.
It’s also possible that Kaelon Black is simply outperforming him and has a higher ceiling right now.
Black, a third-round selection from Indiana, came into the team with the expectation that he would either be the backup to McCaffrey or third-string behind Isaac Guerendo. With Guerendo on the Physically Unable to Perform list, Black has the backup spot all to himself. A strong preseason performance also helped.
49ers coaches saw a player who was shifty on the line and could squeeze through tight holes. During the preseason game against the Los Angeles Chargers, Black displayed flashes of explosiveness during some runs in the latter part of the first quarter, including a 10-yard run where he was upended. He might need work on his pass-catching abilities, however, after a ball sailed past his back during the Las Vegas Raiders game.
His pass-catching will be why McCaffrey remains a starter for the 49ers, but rush-positive game scripts will see splits. However, if McCaffrey goes down with injury or shows significant regression on the field, Black is the next man up and might be a strong fantasy pickup.
Black is a pickup and stash player in deeper leagues, but it remains to be seen whether his workload will remain or if it’s just a case of week-one schematics and seeing what everyone can do.
Christian McCaffrey, of course, is still a must-start unless circumstances change, but it could be wise for teams who have him to clear a spot for Black. It doesn’t hurt, given that it’s only week one and that flex leagues can hold deep benches, plus it might be a valuable handcuff in half-PPR leagues. Be ready to drop him for someone else if the game plan changes, however.
It’s also very unwise for teams to trade McCaffrey based on one week’s performance in the season unless there is a strong offer. If a team comes offering a pair of guys like Cam Skattebo or Bayshul Tuten, or even David Montgomery, it’s worth a discussion. Pay attention to injury reports and coach-speak to see where he stands going forward.
Christian McCaffrey can still easily justify his RB5-and-up ranking in fantasy leagues within a short period of time, granted he stays healthy. The emerging Kaelon Black poses some challenges and interesting questions for fantasy managers, though. Handcuffing the two might be the play at hand, but managers should prepare for a potential drop-off in McCaffrey’s production, even without an injury.
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