The NFL Divisional Round kicks off this Saturday in Kansas City. The Chiefs are fresh off a bye and are the two-time defending Super Bowl Champions. The Chiefs enter the contest as -8 favorites at home. Can the Texans live up to the heights of their Wild Card upset, or will Kansas City continue their successful run?
Houston is playing with house money after defeating the Los Angeles Chargers 32-12 in the Wild Card Round. Their defense was elite in the regular season and forced Chargers quarterback, Justin Herbert, into more interceptions than he threw all season, including a pick-six in the Wild Card Round. The offense did well enough, with quarterback C.J. Stroud throwing for 282 yards with one touchdown and one interception, and running back Joe Mixon scoring another. The Texans allowed just 19.0 ppg over their last three games. When Stroud takes care of the ball and the defense plays well, the Texans are a difficult out. Their biggest issue remains with their offensive line and giving Stroud enough time to make good decisions.
The Chiefs are feeling rested coming off the bye. They also rested most of their starters in the season’s final game, which they willingly lost. The recipe for the Chiefs’ success this year has been their top-five scoring defense and average but consistent offense, averaging 22.6 ppg. Without including the final week, Kansas City has not scored fewer than 16 points in a game, and no more than 30. With two championships and two weeks rest behind them, does anyone have what it takes to dethrone the Kansas City Chiefs?
Bodog has the Texans as +8.0 underdogs as of early Friday. While the Chiefs are rightfully the favorites, the Texans +8.0 is the play. In the regular season, the two are only separated by 3.5 points in average scoring margin and 0.7 in average points per game. With both teams being defense-first teams and the Texans’ defense somehow outperforming expectations last week, Texans +8.0 is the best bet. While Houston’s O-Line is in for a test, their defense will keep it close.
The Chiefs are clearly the favorite, but it should be a low-scoring, close game. Look for the Texans to cover, with a lean to the under on the total.
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