The Jaylen Brown trade shocked the NBA world; it was truly unbelievable that the Boston Celtics traded their superstar forward to the division rival, the Philadelphia 76ers. What was even more shocking was the package they got back in the deal: only Paul George, 2028/2031 first-rounders, and two second-rounders.
That’s not a knock on George, who is still a good player, but he is 36 years old and just doesn’t match the level of production that Brown brought to the team. Historical analytics show that Boston hasn’t lost a step when Brown is not on the floor, which begs the question: are they actually better off without the five-time all-star?
Boston had a 9-2 record this past season when Brown did not play; it is a small sample size, but it’s important to know they can still compete at a high level without him. Over the past 4 seasons, the Celtics had a 47-10 record without Brown, an 82.5% win percentage; if you scale that to 82 games, that’s the same as a 68-win team.
Obviously, this has to be taken with a grain of salt, because many of the games he sat out were likely against teams with negative records. The Celtics have a net rating of +4.7 with Brown on the court, compared to a significantly higher +13.6 without him.
Boston outscored opponents by 6.5 points per 100 possessions better without Brown on the court. These advanced stats don’t always tell the full story, but it’s still interesting to note that they seem better with him off the court. Another reason he could have been traded was that Boston did not want to give him the max extension, which was reported to be two years, $142 million.
We all know the Celtics like to shoot the three-ball; they’ve played that way for a few years now under head coach Joe Mazzulla, which could be why they decided to go after George. They lead the league in total three-point attempts with 3,456 over the course of the season.
George shot 39.2% from behind the arc this past season, while Brown shot 34.7% from three-point range. The Celtics have maintained a net rating of +8.9 points per 100 possessions when Jayson Tatum is on the floor without Brown. Tatum’s usage rate also jumps to 38.3% when Brown isn’t on the court, and if the stats show the team is better with a higher usage rate for Tatum, then this trade might not be so bad. Based on the numbers, the Celtics are a better team without Brown.
Brown averaged 28.7 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 5.1 assists per game on 57.3% true shooting, while George averaged 17.3 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 3.7 assists on 57% true shooting. Brown is 29, and George is 36, which is another reason everyone is freaking out about the trade.
The reason Philly made this trade was simple: they added a player who is currently in their prime and brings championship pedigree for a player that, let’s be honest, is on a bad contract for his production level. The Celtics’ projected lineup is Payton Pritchard, Derrick White, George, Tatum, and Neemias Queta.
Boston had a higher offensive rating without Brown on the floor at 122.7 than they did with him on the court at 120.7. They also had a higher defensive rating when he wasn’t on the floor (106.4) than when he was on the floor (115.8). The durability between the players is a big concern, as Brown played 71 games this year, to George’s 37. George provides better off-ball ability than Brown, which is important because it seems they want Tatum to have a high usage next season.
Jaylen Brown’s contract:
Total Contract: 5-year, $285 million supermax extension.
Years Remaining: 3 years.
Upcoming Salaries: ~ $57.1 million in 2026-27, ~ $61 million in 2027-28, and ~ $64.9 million in 2028-29.
Paul George’s contract:
Total Contract: 4-year, $211.5 million veteran contract.
Years Remaining: 2 years.
Upcoming Salaries: ~ $54.1 million in 2026-27, followed by a player option for $56.6 million in the 2027-28 season.
Boston will be an interesting team to watch next season, especially after such a major shakeup. Brown’s return to TD Garden will be electric for both him and the fans. Don’t expect the Celtics to just roll over after trading a player like that; the numbers show that they are even better with him off the floor.
They do have big shoes to fill with the departure of a player they have built around for a decade, but they have a plan, and this might not be the roster they start the season with.
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