The New York Yankees announced Aaron Judge’s injury last night as a stress fracture of the first rib. Chris Kirschner of The Athletic reported that Judge will be out 4-6 weeks for re-imaging, and then New York will work from there.
The Yankees are 37-25 in a weak American League with only five teams with a winning record, and are half a game behind the Tampa Bay Rays. Is New York good enough to stand pat until Judge comes back, or do the Yankees need to make a move before their season derails?
Did you know that New York’s best offensive player this season isn’t even Judge? It’s Ben Rice, who’s second in the league with a 181 Weighted Runs Created+ and also second in the league with a 1.030 On Base Plus Slugging Percentage. The Yankees need one of the best hitters in the league to remain elite with Judge out, and all of Rice’s underlying metrics and expected stats expect him to.
Rice is also tied for fifth in the league among qualified batters with a 2.6 Fangraphs Wins Above Replacement, and overall, including pitchers, he’s ninth in the entire league in fWAR. This is a Top 10 player.
Cody Bellinger’s also been phenomenal as one of the best two-way players in the sport. Bellinger is sporting a 136 wRC+, an .841 OPS, and is leading the league defensively with 15 Defensive Runs Saved.
New York also has six hitters with at least a 99 wRC+ in at least close to 100 plate appearances this season, including Paul Goldschmidt, Amed Rosario, Trent Grisham, Giancarlo Stanton, Jose Caballero, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. Goldschmidt and Rosario have been excellent bench pieces that have had to start with a couple of injuries and platoon splits.
Grisham is finally hitting like his underlying and expected stats say he should. Stanton is currently injured, as he is every year, but should be back in the near future. Caballero and Chisholm Jr. have started from the get-go this season, but their under-the-hood stats aren’t pretty to the eye.
So, as you can see, the Yankees should be fine offensively even without Judge and should remain a top 10 offense in the sport. Sure, they might not be the second-best offense in the league like they currently are with a 114 wRC+, but they will be without a 150 wRC+ bat this season after all.
New York arguably has the best starting rotation in the league, headlined by Gerrit Cole and Cam Schlittler. New York also has Max Fried, who’s currently injured, Carlos Rodon, Will Warren, and Ryan Weathers.
Schlittler is currently the American League Cy Young favorite, even after a down start against the Cleveland Guardians, where he allowed four earned runs in 4 1/3 innings. Schlittler is third in the league with a minuscule 1.89 ERA, ninth in the league in K% at a 28.5 K%, and third among pitchers with a 2.8 fWAR.
Cole has made three starts since coming back from Tommy John surgery and has pitched to a 2.00 ERA with a glistening 2.48 Expected ERA and a .206 Expected Batting Average. Cole’s averaging 96.4 miles per hour on his fastball, limiting hard hits at an elite level, has a close to 6% walk rate, and already has above-average chase rates at 32.7%.
Fried went down last month with a bone bruise on his last elbow and last pitched on May 13th. Overall, Fried’s pitching to a 3.21 ERA, limiting damage contact, has a 49.1 ground ball percentage, a 2.52 Expected ERA, and a .205 Expected Batting Average.
Rodon just came back last month and has been hit or miss in his five starts, headlined yesterday as he twirled a six-inning gem against the Guardians. In that start, he only gave up one run and two hits and struck out seven batters. Rodon’s struggled with his command early on, with a 15.4 BB%, but has limited barrels and hard hits, while having a 26% strikeout rate and a 27.9% whiff rate. Rodon’s under-the-hood metrics look good to start as well, with a 3.04 Expected ERA, .176 Expected Batting Average, and he’s been elite at inducing ground balls with a 50% ground ball percentage.
Warren and Weathers have both been a godsend for New York’s starting rotation this season. They were both question marks heading into this season based on their inconsistent track record. With Rodon and Cole out to begin the season, and then Fried getting hurt, the Yankees needed Warren and Weathers to step up. They’ve been tremendous.
Warren has pitched to the tune of a 3.22 ERA, which is the 22nd-best in the league among qualified starters; he’s also 21st in the league with a 25.8 K% and is tied for 26th in fWAR at 1.4. Warren is breaking out in his second full season of starting at 26 years old, is one of the best caught-looking strikeout pitchers, and has induced 41.4% of ground balls this season. Warren has struggled with limiting hard contact, which was the thorn in his side last season, but he’s improved a good amount and is in the 63rd percentile in Barrel %.
Weathers was traded from the Miami Marlins this offseason and is pitching to a 3.52 ERA in 11 starts and 64 innings. He’s struck out 75 batters, has a 7.5 BB%, but has also struggled with giving up hard contact. Weathers has given up an alarming 11 home runs, is in the 43rd percentile in average exit velocity, 15th percentile in Barrel %, and 35th percentile in Hard-Hit % as well. Once the rotation gets fully healthy, it makes the most sense to place Weathers in the bullpen, pumping at least 97 MPH from the left side in high-leverage situations.
Now, pitching aside, who’s going to man right field without Judge and have to attempt to fill his shoes?
Internally, Judge’s replacement comes down to both Jasson Dominguez and Spencer Jones. Dominguez is currently on rehab after suffering a shoulder injury. Jones was recalled earlier today and should get close to every day’s reps against right-handed pitching. Grisham and Bellinger will remain in the outfield for New York; Bellinger undoubtedly must remain in left field. Do the Yankees move Grisham to right field despite his defensive decline and Jones’ sprung legs?
Dominguez has been a better hitter than Jones in the major leagues and is a slightly better base runner. Jones is the better defender and has more power, but has massive strikeout, chase, and whiff issues. Dominguez had a 116 wRC+ and a .768 OPS in 325 plate appearances and 288 at-bats against right-handed pitching in the majors last season. Jones, in the minor leagues this season, has a 36.6 K%, 36.3 Chase %, and a 41.5 Whiff % across 263 AB’s and 298 PA’s, according to Prospect Savant.
Externally, fans want to go big and make a blockbuster move for either Yordan Alvarez or Mike Trout, but those seem extremely unlikely. Alvarez is an MVP candidate with the best wRC+ and OPS in the league, and why on earth would the Houston Astros trade him to New York of all places? That trade should start with undisputed Top 20 prospect George Lombard Jr., who fans should have no problem dealing. It probably would cost something else gut-wrenching, like top 70 prospect Carlos Lagrange, on top of a starting pitcher like Warren or Weathers.
In terms of Trout, it seems like he loves the Los Angeles Angels and doesn’t plan on getting off the sinking ship anytime soon, and he comes with a lengthy injury history at 34 years old.
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At the end of the day, the Yankees should be okay even without Judge. Sure, he’s one of the best hitters ever, but general manager Brian Cashman put together a good enough team without Judge, and he’s still expected to be back this season.
The American League is historically weak. New York has an elite rotation and two excellent hitters to carry the offensive burden. They also have a good group of role players.
Losing Judge is brutal, but it’s not catastrophic or the end of the world. Take a deep breath and look at how good the roster is this time around compared to 2023, when Judge held the roster together with glue. Once he went down, so did the season.
Both Jones and Dominguez have to take advantage of their opportunities in the outfield, Stanton needs to return, and the pitching staff has to remain elite. Yes, it’s not going to be easy whatsoever to replace Judge’s 150 wRC+, .904 OPS, 17 home runs, and 48 RBI in 59 games. Jones and Dominguez, though, now have a golden opportunity to prove they can be long-term pieces for the Yankees.
New York also has to remain in the market for bullpen help, a starting catcher, and an everyday third baseman. All three avenues have been below average for them so far this season.
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