The Red Sox have left Fort Myers. With Spring Training coming to a close, it is time to think about the regular season in the MLB. Fans of most teams are optimistic. All teams are 0-0, and therefore all teams are still in contention. This year’s Boston Red Sox have even more hype surrounding them than in previous years.
Fans were resigned to decent, but underwhelming teams for the last few years. With a trade for an ace, and multiple free agent signings at the top of the respective positions, however, this year the Red Sox look to be in line for the playoffs, and possibly even more.
With those high expectations come big predictions. Here are three bold predictions for the 2025 Boston Red Sox, in order of most mild to most spicy take.
There are a lot of good teams out there, and the Red Sox have not even finished higher than third in their own division since 2018, when they went 108-54 with the best record in the major leagues. That should change this year.
With the New York Yankees losing Soto, battling significant injury woes already, and lacking depth to fill the holes that are already on the roster, they should be taking a step back this season.
The Baltimore Orioles will still be good, thanks to a very young core, including Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Heston Kjerstad, and Jackson Holliday. However, they did not fix by far the biggest hole in their roster: the starting pitching. They lost Corbin Burnes and did little to replace him. That likely puts them a step back as well.
The Tampa Bay Rays are at an impass, being displaced from their stadium, and having backed out of a deal for a new one. With their future uncertain, and almost no budget to work with, it would be a surprise to see them rise up much higher than last year, although their pitching remains very scary.
The Toronto Blue Jays once again had trouble luring the big names to their team, and had to settle for back up plans. They improved a bit, but did they improve enough? It seems doubtful, and on top of that they may be losing Vlad after the season. They needed to go all in, and once again finished the offseason with a wimper.
Outside of the division, no one else in the American League screams scary, either. The Texas Rangers are aging and battling injury in their pitching, the Houston Astros are setting up for a soft rebuild, the Seattle Mariners still have major gaps in their offense, the American League Central is up and coming but beatable.
The American League pennant is there for the taking, and the Red Sox will capitalize this season and face the Los Angeles Dodgers (the clear number one team) for the 2025 Championship crown.
This one gets a bit spicier. The Red Sox are loaded with high-end talent, including Rafael Devers, Alex Bregman, Garrett Crochet, Walker Buehler, Jarren Duran, Triston Casas, Trevor Story, and even Tanner Houck.
All of these players have the upside to be not just the Red Sox MVP, but the league MVP if everything fell their way. So how can the team MVP not even make the opening day roster?
The team MVP is going to be Marcelo Mayer, starting the season in AAA. Mayer may not put up the best counting statistics on the team. He won’t hit the most home runs or steal the most bases. He won’t lead the league in batting average.
Mayer will, however, be solid across the board. He provides strong offense. He is a solid base runner. He provides high caliber defense. And when he comes up, he will stabilize the position that has been one of the least stable spots for the Red Sox for nearly a decade: Shortstop.
Playing the most premium position boosts your value, by wins above replacement metrics. Mayer will be playing that position on a great team. He will be the missing piece to the puzzle, giving the Red Sox a fantastic infield defense and middle-of-the-order bat. Therefore, he will be the most valuable player on the Red Sox.
This is the spiciest bold prediction of them all. Last year, the Red Sox were not top 10 in any of the major pitching statistics according to Fangraphs.
They were 11th in Fangraphs Wins Above Replacement (15.5) , 16th in Earned Run Average (4.05), 20th on Fielder Independent Pitching (4.10), 12th on Expected Fielder Independent Pitching (4.03), even 22nd in Strikeouts per nine innings (8.38). The only category they led on was Innings Pitched, which based on the numbers, perhaps they shouldn’t have.
Garrett Crochet, while a bonafide ace, cannot single-handedly make up that difference. However, starting pitching depth can. Last season, the Red Sox had very little depth in their starting pitching pool, and it showed. They relied on 10 different traditional starting pitchers, as well as bullpen games, to get through the season.
Many of these pitchers were mediocre, and even the ones that did well (like Cooper Criswell) had weaker underlying metrics. This season, besides just improving the starting five rotation with additions of Garrett Crochet, Walker Buehler, and at some point both Lucas Giolito and Patrick Sandoval, but they have greater depth as well.
Richard Fitts and Quinn Priester have both shown improvements in Spring Training, with Fitts adding velocity and a new pitch. Sean Newcomb has also added a new pitch. Hunter Dobbins, Cooper Criswell, Shane Drohan, Bryan Mata, and eventually Chris Murphy round out the depth.
Do not under estimate the ceilings of the starting five, combined with the depth the Red Sox have accumulated. They are starting the season with five injured starting pitchers, and their rotation hasn’t missed a beat.
This depth is what has lead the Los Angeles Dodgers to such success, and it will lead the Red Sox above the pack to become the best starting pitching in the game.
To check out the Red Sox full depth chart according to Fangraph’s Roster resource, click here.
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The key to the season is going to be health. If the Red Sox remain even moderately healthy, all three of the above predictions could easily come to fruition. Their depth across the board is the deepest it has been in years, and they have young superstars waiting in the wings if anyone struggles. They have enough good players that they do not have space for them all on the 26-man roster. That is a great thing, and should make for a very exciting Red Sox season.
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