The 2025 MLB Season has come to the All-Star break, and what better time to evaluate the Toronto Blue Jays? The team is outperforming expectations and currently sits atop the AL East. That doesn’t mean everything is peachy in Canada, as they certainly have needs to address by the trade deadline. Stats and ranking provided by MLB unless otherwise noted.
The bats have been better than expected and coming from unexpected sources. After playing the first 69 games of his career last season, third baseman Addison Barger ended 2024 with a .601 OPS. Having already surpassed that game total by three before the All-Star break, his .823 OPS has gotten him up in the first inning.
Veteran outfielder George Springer has primarily been a DH, which has given his career new life. His current .853 OPS on the season is the highest since 2021. It seems there is still a World Series caliber bat in there; the old man just needed to put his feet up.
After trading catcher Danny Jansen, the Blue Jays went all in with Alejandro Kirk. Fans were initially skeptical, but it was one of their scarce smart decisions under the current team management. The All-Star enters the break with a .303 AVG. He is well-known for his blocking abilities, but has also improved his arm over the offseason. After being exploited for his weak arm in 2024, the man has shown the ability and willingness to put in the work to improve, evident in the cannon he found.
While his stats don’t leap off the page, outfielder Nathan Lukes has been a pleasant surprise. After only playing in 51 games over two seasons to start his major league career, he has maintained a .769 OPS through 70 games so far this year.
The two core pieces expected to lead the offense have taken some heat this year, but their downfall is overblown and exaggerated. After signing an extension, fans had high hopes for first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. While capable of more, he’s still just -0.10 off his career AVG, and -0.041 off his OPS. In the final year of his contract, shortstop Bo Bichette looks to earn a big raise. With work to do if he wants to maximize the opportunity, he isn’t hitting poorly, sitting right at his career .289 AVG and only -0.027 off OPS.
The bats stayed hot despite name-brand injuries. They currently wait for outfielder Daulton Varsho and DH Anthony Santander to return. Varsho is known for his defense, and Santander didn’t perform as expected before going on the IL. The team has a risky decision: Will they fit like a glove upon their return, or will struggles interrupt the current chemistry?
The starting pitching has been an unexpected issue this year. After finishing last season with a 3.95 ERA as a unit, the starters have dropped to a 4.60 ERA, 25th in the league.
The experiment of Bowden Francis as a starter can be put to bed, as indicated by his 6.05 ERA. The team was either blind or desperate, as Francis has always been a joke the second or third time through the order. He has tricky stuff, but it seems easy to pick up after a batter has seen it.
Max Scherzer is another unknown. After getting injured in his first appearance, he has been sharp since his return. The team overpaid for an injury-prone veteran, hoping for the best. If he can stay healthy for the second half, it might make the signing more tolerable.
The core of their starting staff hasn’t been garbage, but it’s certainly a step back. Kevin Gauseman has seen his ERA drop to 4.19. Chris Bassitt is matching last year’s 4.16 ERA, which is acceptable from the number three starter, but they are all pitching like number threes. Jose Berrios is the only one to keep the ERA under four, but most stats are up a tick, including WHIP, ERA, and BABIP. The team needs to add a solid and reliable starter by the deadline if they plan to make a serious playoff run.
The bullpen has outshone the starters, including a 3.57 ERA, which puts them in the top ten of MLB this season. Some of the top performers include Brendon Little with a 2.03 ERA, and Braydon Fisher is sitting below one after 26 games played. Failed starter turned reliever, Yariel Rodriguez, is proving better suited for the pen. With a 2.14 ERA and the ability to provide length, he has been a beneficial piece.
The closer role is in trouble. Jeff Hoffman was given the role without a second thought after joining the team in the offseason. He has struggled with a 5.03 ERA, yet there is no talk of him losing the position. Yimi Garcia is a better fit, but has been battling injuries all year, and is currently on the 15-day IL.
The Field Bible ranks the Blue Jays fifth in defensive runs saved. The obvious weaknesses are shortstop and right field. Their strengths are everywhere else, but center field and catcher carry the majority of the 33 total runs saved.
The complimentary pieces are outperforming their norms, so regression is highly likely. If the team doesn’t address their serious needs before that happens, they will find themselves in the Wild Card picture sooner rather than later.
The AL East is the most obtainable it’s been under the recent regime. The Yankees and Red Sox are swapping inconsistent runs, while the Orioles are embarrassing. The Rays are middle of the pack and will never be better. They can’t even produce a building to play in, never mind World Series-level baseball.
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