The Cincinnati Bengals, led by quarterback Joe Burrow, will enter the 2025 NFL season with the seventh-best odds to win the Super Bowl (via ESPN). While there are still plenty of questions defensively, their offensive firepower is more than enough to make them legitimate contenders. If Burrow does lead this team to a Lombardi trophy, he would accomplish something that a QB taken first overall has not done since Peyton Manning in 2007. That is, win a Super Bowl with the team they were drafted by.
The immediate reaction from many may be: “Wait, didn’t Eli Manning go first and win two Super Bowls?” Correct, but remember that the 2004 first overall pick got drafted by the then-San Diego Chargers and traded to the New York Giants for Philip Rivers. The Giants also traded their third-round pick from that year, along with first and third-round picks from 2005, to complete the deal. Eli famously expressed that he did not want to play for the Chargers.
This is my decision. I wanted to do this. I was not told to do this.
Ironically, he also stated that “we’ve made our decision” in the same interview. That made it extremely difficult to believe that it was simply a choice he made on his own. He was not the only former QB with the last name Manning to have influenced that decision.
Along with Cam Newton and Jared Goff, Burrow has come the closest as a first overall starting QB to winning a Super Bowl with the team that drafted him (Alex Smith was the backup in SB XLVII). He and the Bengals fell to the Los Angeles Rams in SB LVI back in 2022. That matchup also featured another QB taken first overall, Matthew Stafford. He ended up leaving the team that drafted him, the Detroit Lions, to obtain his Super Bowl win. The Cincinnati faithful are hopeful that their franchise QB will not have to do the same.
It will be quite a while before crossing that bridge. Burrow is under contract through 2029 after signing a five-year, $275 million extension back in 2023. Once his deal expires, he and his camp will evaluate the situation if the Bengals have not won the Lombardi.
The three AFC teams ahead of Cincinnati in the Super Bowl odds are, to no surprise, the Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, and Baltimore Ravens. Burrow has a career 9-8 record (including playoffs) against those three teams combined. While that does include four straight losses against the Ravens, he has more than held his own in each of those matchups. Burrow has a total of 12 touchdown passes, just two interceptions, 1143 yards, and a rating of 107.8 in the four most recent meetings against Baltimore.
Those last two battles versus the Ravens could have gone either way. The Bengals lost by a total of four points, which included an overtime defeat and a one-point loss after a failed two-point conversion. Burrow has proven numerous times that he can stand toe to toe with the best the NFL has to offer.
Football is called the ultimate team sport for a reason. Between the older Manning brother in 1998 and Burrow in 2020, 15 quarterbacks went first overall. Only two of them have been able to win a Super Bowl thus far. There are many cases where a QB is selected at the top of the draft, expected to fix a franchise that is in complete shambles, and then labeled a bust when they don’t do so. As we have seen recently with Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold, it could be a case where a player needs a change of scenery and a better situation overall.
Burrow is no stranger to overcoming the odds. That 2021 AFC champion Bengals team had the third-worst preseason odds to make the Super Bowl. Despite that, they were able to punch their ticket to the big game and defeated the preseason favorite Chiefs along the way. With all of the starting offensive weapons returning, and hopefully an improved, healthy defense, it would not be a surprise at all if Burrow is once again able to lead Cincinnati to the Super Bowl. Once there, as we all know, anything could happen.
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